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Posthaste: How analysts say Canada could wipe out the CO2 emissions of its entire economy – Financial Post

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Supplying India with LNG would have a ‘more profound impact on the planet than shutting down the Canadian economy entirely’

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Canada’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been laudable, but there is a way we could do so much more, says a report from National Bank of Canada.

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So far efforts have been largely focused within our boundaries, but considering that Canada is responsible for less than 1.5 per cent of global emissions, these efforts could be for naught because other countries are increasing emissions by a far greater magnitude, says analyst Baltej Sidhu and associate Anh Le in the report.

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“Emissions are global, they are not bound by geographical boundaries, as such, we proposed to reopen the conversation with a global tilt,” they said.

Canada once said that there was no business case for meaningful increases in LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports to support Germany and Japan, but National analysts hope India could be a different story.

The world’s most populous country is facing an enormous energy challenge as it attempts to modernize its economy and meet the needs of a population that is growing by more than 12 million a year.

India recently announced plans to double its coal production by 2030, which National estimates would increase its power sector emissions from coal to roughly the equivalent of Canada’s entire greenhouse gas emissions in 2021.

And emissions aren’t the only problem. India’s thermal power plants are estimated to consume 20-25 billion cubic metres of water a year, more than 50 per cent of the domestic requirements of a country already struggling with water scarcity.

National says there is a better way even if it means supplying India with a fossil fuel alternative.

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“According to our latest calculations, we estimate that partially replacing India’s coal-fired power generation with Canadian LNG would have a more profound impact on the planet than shutting down the Canadian economy entirely,” said Sidhu and economist Stéfane Marion.

LNG
National Bank of Canada

Assuming that 88 gigawatts of coal-fired generation comes online in India by 2032 as announced, replacing coal with Canadian natural gas would reduce emissions by 2.4 times the total emissions of Canada’s economy. The natural gas need to do that would represent 66 per cent of Canada’s current production.

If you assume that India’s doubling of coal production leads to a doubling of coal-fired generating capacity by 2030, displacing it with natural gas would cut CO2 by 3.5 times the output of Canada’s economy and require 1.5 times Canada’s natural gas production.

“If our policymakers are serious about limiting the impacts of global warming and promoting economic reconciliation with our First Nations, there is a compelling and pragmatic business case for Canada to help the planet by working with India to limit its carbon emissions, given that renewable energies will not be easily deployed there by 2030,” said Sidhu and Marion.

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Financial Post

Canada’s budgetary deficit ballooned in the first nine months of the fiscal year, data out Friday revealed.

The federal government posted a deficit of $23.6 billion from April to December in the 2023-24 fiscal year. That compares with a deficit of $5.5 billion for the same stretch of last year.

Government revenues were up, totalling $318.1 billion, compared to $310.0 billion a year earlier.

But so were program expenses. These hit $301 billion for the nine months, up from $282.4 billion a year earlier, with increases across all the major categories of spending.

Public debt charges also rose to $35.1 billion, up from $25.8 billion in the year before.


  • Cargojet Inc. will report its fourth-quarter results and hold a conference call with investors before markets open today. The report comes after a slide in consumer spending squeezed the air cargo company’s bottom line in its third quarter.
  • Today’s Data: U.S. new home sales data
  • Earnings: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd

Get all of today’s top breaking stories as they happen with the Financial Post’s live news blog, highlighting the business headlines you need to know at a glance.

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Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you wondering how to make ends meet? Drop us a line at aholloway@postmedia.com with your contact info and the general gist of your problem and we’ll try to find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). If you have a simpler question, the crack team at FP Answers led by Julie Cazzin or one of our columnists can give it a shot.

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McLister on Mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Read them here 


Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.


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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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