Fast forward to today, after the franchise’s first seven-game win streak in more than 20 years (Nov. 22-Dec. 6, 2003), and the Leafs are comfortably in a playoff position, third in the Atlantic Division, with an outside chance of climbing even a little higher now.
The Leafs trail the second-place Florida Panthers by six points, with a game in hand, and sit seven points back of the division-leading Boston Bruins, with two games in hand. They have two games remaining against both squads. In short, the division crown is suddenly back on the table (if still unlikely).
A heater like the one the Leafs are on will do that. What’s fuelling this particular streak? Let’s run through the seven biggest factors.
None of this is possible if Matthews doesn’t score and dominate like he has been.
Matthews has pumped in 10 goals in the seven wins, including back-to-back hat tricks against the Philadelphia Flyers and Anaheim Ducks. He’s shooting a flaming 34.5 percent in that stretch.
It’s not just the goal scoring, though. The Matthews-led top line is back to roasting opponents. The Leafs have won 63 percent of the expected goals and 70 percent of the high-danger shot attempts with Matthews on the ice during the win streak. And that’s with Matthews lining up for exactly 25 offensive zone draws and 25 defensive zone draws. In other words, his unit is still thriving even without generous deployment.
That’s MVP stuff.
2. Sheldon Keefe’s tinkering
John Tavares missed the Leafs’ blowout win over Anaheim on Feb. 17 with an injury the Leafs did not disclose.
He returned the next game in St. Louis but lost his job as the No. 2 centre as well as his position on the No. 1 power-play unit.
It was a pretty bold play from the Leafs head coach.
Not only is Tavares the captain of the team, but the second-highest-paid player on the team and a longtime NHL star. Diminishing his role is no small thing, particularly on the power play.
Tavares led the Leafs in power-play goals last season and was heating up there before the injury, with goals in three straight from a new position on PP1. Keefe kept him off the top unit anyway, playing a hunch by leaving Tyler Bertuzzi there instead.
Bertuzzi broke a 19-game goal drought with a power-play goal in his first game on PP1 (the one Tavares missed) and then, with his confidence ticking upward, added two more power-play goals over the weekend in his biggest night yet as a Leaf.
Hunch rewarded.
Playing on the third line, meanwhile, Tavares ended a 27-game drought with a five-on-five goal in Arizona and then added another one a night later in Vegas. I’m not convinced a Max Domi-led No. 2 line is sustainable for the Leafs, but for the time being, the shake-up has borne fruit.
Keefe and his staff also, notably, decided to keep their top two pairs on defence intact even when Rielly returned from his five-game suspension. It would have been very easy to shuffle things back to the way they were for the team’s longest-serving player, the one who was penalized for standing up for his team.
Keefe and his staff have pressed the right buttons of late. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)
3. Depth scoring
Trailing only Matthews in goals among Leafs during the win streak? That would be Bobby McMann, of course, with seven.
It’s funny how life works out sometimes, as McMann was supposed to be a healthy scratch on the night he broke out with a hat trick on Feb. 13. He got into the lineup only because Tavares and Mitch Marner were sick and then buried three goals.
That game seemed to unlock something for the 27-year-old, that he could score at the NHL level if he shot the puck aggressively and used his thick 210-pound frame to get to the net. McMann has landed 21 shots during the win streak.
Combine McMann’s all-of-a-sudden contributions with Bertuzzi’s all-of-a-sudden contributions (four goals) and well, all of a sudden, the Leafs are getting offence from two players who had contributed almost nothing previously.
Twelve different Leafs have scored at least once during the win streak. The Leafs beat the Colorado Avalanche without either Matthews or William Nylander scoring a goal.
4. The Leafs are hot ????
Sometimes, puck luck just goes your way.
The Leafs are shooting almost 17 percent during the win streak, tops in the NHL. For context, the Leafs shot 10.4 percent in their first 50 games of the season.
5. Mitch Marner is playing his best hockey of the season
Marner typically finds another gear in January. And indeed, he’s produced 34 points in 22 games since the calendar turned over to 2024.
Marner has dropped in multiple points in all seven games of the win streak (and the loss to Ottawa that preceded it), piling up 14 assists. The zip to his game has returned. The passing is back to being otherworldly.
Also noteworthy: Marner’s defensive play is returning to Selke standards.
6. The power play is cooking
The number doesn’t even look real: The Leafs have scored on 47.6 percent of their power plays during the heater — 10 goals on 21 chances.
That’s, uh, hot.
Matthews has scored four of those goals and is now up to 15 power-play goals on the year. Two more and he’ll establish a new career high. Bertuzzi has added three, Nylander has a pair and McMann has chipped in with one.
Moving Tavares to PP2 has made that unit more dangerous — though the minutes for that group can be sparse.
7. Team D
Why have the Leafs done so much winning without Rielly in the past couple years? Absent their No. 1 defenceman, the team believes its commitment to defence, especially from the forwards, ratchets up.
The Leafs have surrendered only 10 five-on-five goals in the seven wins while scoring 23 at the other end. Their expected goal rate defensively in those spots (2.17 goals against per 60 minutes) trails only the always-stingy Carolina Hurricanes.
Is that sustainable with this group of players, especially as the schedule gets even more onerous? That remains to be seen. It’s been an impressive stretch regardless.
What’s next in the Leafs crease?
It’s decision time for management (beyond the trade deadline), with the imminent return of Joseph Woll and Calle Järnkrok as well as Mark Giordano, who’s been on bereavement leave.
Ultimately, Brad Treliving’s crew will have to decide if it wants to keep Martin Jones around or not as a third goaltender — at least until March 8, after which roster limits (though not the cap) disappear. If so, which feels almost mandatory, the Leafs GM is presumably choosing between keeping around William Lagesson as the seventh defenceman or getting rid of someone up front.
The Leafs will be at 14 forwards when Järnkrok returns.
Dropping one feels like the right move. But who? The Leafs could simply demote Nick Robertson to the Marlies. He doesn’t require waivers. That doesn’t feel fair given how he’s performed (though when he’s not scoring, his contributions are minimal).
With how things are going, is it Noah Gregor who hits the waiver wire? He’s lost his mojo and role in recent months.
Ilya Samsonov deflects a shot as Colorado Avalanche centre Ross Colton reacts. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)
Assuming they hold on to Jones, how do the Leafs — starting with Keefe and goalie coach Curtis Sanford — manage starts for three goalies? How much of a hold should Ilya Samsonov have on the crease? He’s won nine of his last 10 starts, though it’s worth noting his save percentage since the All-Star break is a blah .896.
He’s not Connor Hellebuyck. Full ownership of the crease hasn’t been earned in that way. This should be an open competition.
The Leafs need to see if Woll can reassert himself after a long absence of 34 games and almost three months. Maybe that means a simple rotation between him and Samsonov until one pulls ahead, and then find the odd start for Jones here and there.
Carrying three goalies isn’t all that unusual. The Hurricanes are doing it right now. So are the Habs. The Leafs should join them.
Points
1. Something impossible to know that I can’t help wondering about anyway: Was Rielly confronting Greig, in defence of his team on Feb. 10, a turning point for the Leafs? Did that incident pull the team tighter together somehow?
2. One guy who deserves a lot of credit for how he’s played of late: Ryan Reaves.
The Leafs’ fourth line is no longer a black hole when he’s out there. The Leafs have actually outshot teams 27-10 at five-on-five when Reaves has been on the ice in his last five outings. The expected goals are right around 80 percent.
Reaves looks like he’s picked up half a step. He’s no longer lagging behind the play.
I still don’t think the 37-year-old belongs in a playoff lineup and when Järnkrok returns, he may be the odd man out. It might be a question of fit, though. In other words, would Keefe rather play Reaves in fourth-line duty with David Kämpf or one of Robertson or Gregor (assuming he’s still around)?
Gregor’s falloff (coupled with Järnkrok’s injury) has opened the door for Reaves to get back into the conversation. He’s done just that.
The Leafs have outshot their opponents 27-10 at five-on-five with Reaves on the ice in his last five outings. (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
3. TJ Brodie on moving back to the left side: “You just gotta think a little bit extra. You get used to just automatically going to that (right) side. There’s times throughout the game where I catch myself wandering over there. That’s probably the biggest adjustment. And then just turning and pivoting; it’s all pretty much, for the most part, going the other way.”
4. Brodie is technically back on his “natural” side. However, he’s spent most of his NHL career on the right, which kinda makes it his more, well, natural side … no? As Brodie pointed out, he’s spent time on the left here and there the last couple seasons, including with Justin Holl in Games 4 and 5 of the second round against Florida.
His game has looked cleaner on the left. “It feels pretty good,” Brodie said, though he insists he has no preference.
If the Leafs do end up acquiring another righty, Brodie may end up on the left, perhaps alongside Jake McCabe (playing the right). His performance there, at the very least, increases the options for Keefe.
5. How long, I do wonder, before Brodie moves back to the right in top-pairing duty with Rielly?
The Brodie-Timothy Liljegren combo was hammered in Colorado: Shot attempts were 26-11 for the Avs when those two were out there at five-on-five. Colorado outchanced the Leafs 8-1 when Brodie and Liljegren were on the ice against Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen at five-on-five.
It kind of feels like the Leafs will end up here — until they make a trade:
6. Playing Rielly lower down the lineup (he was fourth in five-on-five minutes among the team’s D on Saturday) means fewer opportunities for the Leafs’ best offensive defenceman by a mile to get on the ice with Matthews, the Leafs’ best offensive player. Rielly logged more five-on-five time with Tavares (5:58) and Kämpf (4:51) in Colorado than he did with Matthews (4:43). The Leafs won 74 percent of the expected goals in the Matthews-Rielly minutes that night. They need to up those minutes.
7. One card Keefe is playing more often of late: Tavares at left wing alongside Matthews and Marner.
It’s a way to get the captain out there more often, now that he’s in the 3C hole and off PP1, and out there with two of the team’s three best offensive weapons. The trio logged 2.5 minutes together on Saturday and over four minutes in the last week.
8. Tavares played 14:38 in Vegas and 15:48 in Colorado, two of his lower totals of the season.
That’s partly because of the drop-off in power-play time. And being on the third line, essentially a third line with two rookies, means less opportunity for Tavares — hence the odd spins up top.
Järnkrok will end up knocking Robertson off Tavares’ line, at which point Keefe may be more likely to play that particular threesome. Then again, barring a trade for a forward, I have to think Tavares returns to the 2C position at some point.
Shot attempts were 26-12 for Colorado when the Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander unit was on the ice. The Avs scored once as Bertuzzi and Nylander changed and again when the line was out there fully intact.
LAS VEGAS (AP) — Mountain West Conference Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said Thursday the forfeitures that volleyball teams are willing to take to avoid playing San Jose State is “not what we celebrate in college athletics” and that she is heartbroken over what has transpired this season surrounding the Spartans and their opponents.
Four teams have canceled games against San Jose State: Boise State, Southern Utah, Utah State and Wyoming, with none of the schools explicitly saying why they were forfeiting.
A group of Nevada players issued a statement saying they will not take the floor when the Wolf Pack are scheduled to host the Spartans on Oct. 26. They cited their “right to safety and fair competition,” though their school reaffirmed Thursday that the match is still planned and that state law bars forfeiture “for reasons related to gender identity or expression.”
All those schools, except Southern Utah, are in the Mountain West. New Mexico, also in the MWC, went ahead with its home match on Thursday night, which was won by the Spartans, 3-1, the team’s first victory since Sept. 24.
“It breaks my heart because they’re human beings, young people, student-athletes on both sides of this issue that are getting a lot of national negative attention,” Nevarez said in an interview with The Associated Press at Mountain West basketball media days. “It just doesn’t feel right to me.”
Republican governors of Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming have made public statements in support of the cancellations, citing a need for fairness in women’s sports. Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee in this year’s presidential race, this week referenced an unidentified volleyball match when he was asked during a Fox News town hall about transgender athletes in women’s sports.
“I saw the slam, it was a slam. I never saw a ball hit so hard, hit the girl in the head,” Trump replied before he was asked what can be done. “You just ban it. The president bans it. You just don’t let it happen.”
After Trump’s comment, San Diego State issued a statement that said “it has been incorrectly reported that an San Diego State University student-athlete was hit in the face with a volleyball during match play with San Jose State University. The ball bounced off the shoulder of the student-athlete, and the athlete was uninjured and did not miss a play.”
San Jose State has not made any direct comments about the politicians’ “fairness” references, and Nevarez did not go into details.
“I’m learning a lot about the issue,” Nevarez said. “I don’t know a lot of the language yet or the science or the understanding nationally of how this issue plays out. The external influences are so far on either side. We have an election year. It’s political, so, yeah, it feels like a no-win based on all the external pressure.”
The cancellations could mean some teams will not qualify for the conference tournament Nov. 27-30 in Las Vegas, where the top six schools are slated to compete for the league championship.
“The student-athlete (in question) meets the eligibility standard, so if a team does not play them, it’s a forfeit, meaning they take a loss,” Nevarez said.
Ahead of the Oct. 26 match in Reno. Nevada released a statement acknowledging that “a majority of the Wolf Pack women’s volleyball team” had decided to forfeit against San Jose State. The school said only the university can take that step but any player who decides not to play would face no punishment.
OTTAWA – Travis Green might not have liked the end result, but he’s counting on his team learning from the effort.
Green’s Ottawa Senators were handed a 3-1 loss by the New Jersey Devils Thursday night in a game that highlighted the importance of sticking with things.
“I thought both teams played pretty well,” said Green. “I thought we had a lot of the game that I liked, but I thought there’s a few moments where it got away. We got away from our game, and they stuck with their game a little longer.
“There’s always momentum back and forth for one team to create some chances. It’s a fine line between winning and losing in the league, especially when you’re playing, two good teams are playing.”
Jacob Markstrom’s 30 saves also played a part, with the Devils goaltender only getting beat with 65 seconds left in regulation as the Senators were on the power play with an empty net.
Brady Tkachuk tipped a Claude Giroux shot to spoil Markstrom’s shutout bid.
“Outstanding,” said Devils coach Sheldon Keefe of his goaltender. “Just terrible that he doesn’t get the shutout that he deserves in this one here.
“You feel for him when they make that (penalty) call. You can just kind of feel like it’s going to give them a little extra life. But he was outstanding for us, no question.”
The two teams were scoreless after the first period, where each had to fight for every opportunity. Noah Gregor rang a shot off the crossbar for the Senators, but otherwise, neither team was able to generate much offensively.
The Devils capitalized in the second as a power play expired with Erik Haula redirecting a Johnathan Kovacevic shot past Anton Forsberg, who made 32 saves.
Less than four minutes later, Nathan Bastian took advantage of a Giroux giveaway and beat Forsberg low blocker for his first of the season with the Devils short-handed.
“I liked our second period a lot,” Keefe said. “We took hold of the game and didn’t give up much, and when we did, I thought it was really from the perimeter, only a couple there.”
The Devils tightened up defensively in the third and were able to make it 3-0 when Paul Cotter was left alone in the slot.
“I think for stretches of the game we played the right way and kind of get in on the forecheck and play that way,” said Senators centre Nick Cousins. “It seems like when we get down a couple goals, we kind of change our game, which isn’t a recipe for success in this league.
“I think we’ve just got to keep doing the right things over and over again, even when it’s 2-0.”
With the Senators just four games in and still learning and adjusting to a new system, Green understands there will be growing pains along the way.
“We’re also trying to define our game,” he said. “I think we’re getting there. Both teams play fast. It was a fast skating game. There wasn’t a lot of room to move out there for either team.”
In his short tenure behind the Senators bench, Green has seen his team play very different styles of games and knows there will be nights like this along the way, but learning from them will be key.
“There’s going to be a lot of nights where you kind of got to earn everything you get,” admitted Green. “It’s not going to be freewheeling. Good teams don’t play freewheeling hockey.
“You learn when you win, you learn when you lose games that you don’t play well. You learn when you lose games that you had a pretty good game but you still lose and you’ve got to find a way. Good teams find a way to win those games.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Montreal Canadiens fell 4-1 to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. They also lost their top minute-muncher in the process.
Matheson logged 7:35 in ice time during the first period but did not return for the second because of an upper-body injury. When or how Matheson sustained the injury was not clear. The Canadiens said he would be re-evaluated on Friday.
The game was tied at 1 before he exited, forcing the Canadiens to play with five defencemen for 40 minutes.
“Mike is one of the biggest parts of our D core, and I think losing him — he’s playing against top line, playing power play and we want him on the ice — definitely losing him was a big loss,” teammate David Savard said. “We got to figure out a way to get the two points, even if a player goes out.”
The 30-year-old Matheson of Pointe-Claire, Que., led all Canadiens defencemen with 62 points and a 25:33 average ice time last season.
With his absence, rookie sensation Lane Hutson played a whopping 30:05 in only his seventh NHL game. The next closest player? Kaiden Guhle at 23:09.
Head coach Martin St. Louis was impressed with how the 20-year-old Hutson handled the challenge.
“Lane doesn’t take a shift off,” head coach Martin St. Louis said. “I love the consistency of his compete level, and he drives possession. For a guy who played 30 minutes, I think he gave everything he could to try and help the team.
“I’m not surprised. I know it’s challenging at this level, losing Mike definitely made him play many minutes, chasing the game made him play many minutes, but I just love his compete level.”
Canadiens fans have been clamouring for Hutson — a five-foot-nine, 162-pound defenceman with world-class skill — to take Matheson’s spot on the No. 1 power play.
The Canadiens, however, went 0-for-3 with Hutson running the show after Matheson went down. In the first instance, Kirby Dach took a hooking penalty early in the man-advantage to end it. On the second, the Canadiens failed to generate any zone time.
The third came in the final minutes, but the Kings buried an empty-netter.
“It wasn’t a lack of opportunity, lots of ice time, lots of shifts,” Hutson said. “It was good, it was fun, but obviously you want to be on the other side of it, winning.
“Means a lot (to get that opportunity), but obviously, you want to get more out of that opportunity. It’s a lot of ice, and you want to keep taking steps in the right direction.”
‘IMMATURE EFFORT’
The Canadiens fell to a Kings team that had lost three straight games and was coming off a 6-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.
Under those circumstances, the Canadiens were brutally honest with themselves after the game.
“Definitely disappointed,” captain Nick Suzuki said. “It was an immature effort from us, especially with them playing yesterday and getting in late, so I think we gave them too much life, and let them feel comfortable in the game. It’s on us to be a lot better than that.”
Before the game, St. Louis stressed the need for a good first period against a fatigued Los Angeles side. That’s not what he saw Thursday night.
“I think we had 14 turnovers in the first period. It’s unacceptable. It gives them life,” he said. “Then you’re chasing the game for the second half of it — we didn’t play to our standard.
“I’m really disappointed. Really disappointed.”
BIG SAVE DAVE
Kings goalie David Rittich played his second game in two nights — an unusual occurrence in this day and age of the NHL. He made 25 saves after allowing four goals on 14 shots in Toronto.
“We always believe in him anyway, but he performed today pretty well and bounced back,” defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov said. “It’s probably like most important for himself, that’s huge, and for the team. He played outstanding today.”
LONG ROAD
The Kings are opening the season on a seven-game road trip because of renovations at Crypto.com Arena. They’ve collected six of a possible 10 points so far.
“Pretty much worse (than expected),” forward Phillip Danault said. “We’ve been on the road for three weeks … It’s good team-bonding, whether we should do it again I’m not sure, but it has turned out well let’s say with six points out of 10.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
