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June rate-cut bets rise as Canada's inflation cools more than expected – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Canadian families will get between $760 and $2,160 in carbon price rebates this year as the carbon price itself gets hiked another $15 per tonne. A person pumps gas at a gas station in Mississauga, Ont.,  Tuesday, February 13, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed again in February, rising 2.8 per cent following a 2.9 per cent increase in January. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov) (The Canadian Press)

Canada’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 2.8 per cent in February, bolstering expectations that the Bank of Canada will soon come off the sidelines and begin cutting interest rates.

Statistics Canada said on Tuesday that contributors to February’s deceleration included an easing of grocery prices, and the cost of cellular services and internet access services. Offsetting the slowdown was a year-over-year rise in gas prices, which climbed 0.8 per cent after a 4 per cent drop in January.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected inflation to accelerate to 3.1 per cent in February, following an increase of 2.9 per cent in January.

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“There was unambiguously good news on the inflation front in Canada in February,” CIBC Capital Markets senior economist Katherine Judge wrote in a research note, adding that the latest inflation data are “clearly encouraging from the Bank of Canada’s perspective.”

“It is the last inflation report that policymakers will receive before the April forecast update and announcement, and will allow them room to sound more dovish at that meeting, even though they will likely want to wait to see more evidence of the labour market loosening before pulling the trigger on interest rate cuts in June.”

The latest print marks the second month in a row that inflation is within the Bank of Canada’s target range of between one and three per cent. It is also running below the central bank’s own projections for inflation. In January, the Bank said it expected CPI to be 3.2 per cent in the first quarter.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation also edged down in February, dropping to their lowest levels in more than two years. CPI-median slowed to 3.1 per cent from 3.3 per cent in January, while CPI-trim decreased to 3.2 per cent from 3.3 per cent. The central bank had previously flagged that it needs to see “further and sustained easing in core inflation” before it would consider cutting interest rates.

“Monetary policymakers will be able to breathe a sigh of relief after seeing these numbers,” Desjardins managing director and head of macro strategy Royce Mendes wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

“We expect central bankers to sound more dovish in April, thereby setting up a rate-cutting cycle beginning in June.”

On Tuesday, money markets increased their bets for a first 25 basis point rate cut in June to 75 per cent, up from 50 per cent before the inflation data release. The central bank’s next decision is April 10, before March inflation print is released.

“At a minimum for April, look for the Bank to open the door to rate cuts,” BMO chief economist Douglas Porter wrote in a research note.

“BMO continues to call for a June start to rate cuts, and this report certainly reinforces our conviction.”

Food price growth slows

Grocery price growth eased to 2.4 per cent in February, down from 3.4 per cent in January. Statistics Canada says the slower price growth was broad-based. Meat prices were up 2.6 per cent year-over-year, dairy products up 0.6 per cent, cheese prices down 1.4 per cent, and fresh fruit down 2.6 per cent.

February marked the first month since October 2021 that grocery prices increased at a slower rate than headline inflation. The slower growth was partially due to base-year effects, as last February saw food prices rise in part owing to supply constraints.

The agency noted that “while price growth for groceries has been slowing, prices continue to increase and remain elevated.”

“From February 2021 to February 2024, prices of food purchased from stores increased 21.6 per cent,” StatCan said in a news release.

Consumers who signed on to a cellphone plan in February paid 26.5 per cent less compared to the same time last year, amid lower prices for new plans and increases to data allowances for some plans, StatCan says. Internet access service prices also fell 13.2 per cent annually.

Excluding gasoline, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.9 per cent in February. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3 per cent in February. Seasonally adjusted, CPI increased 0.1 per cent.

With files from Reuters

Alicja Siekierska is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @alicjawithaj.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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