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Posthaste: Who says cities are dead? These four are driving Canada’s economy

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Biggest cities accounted for almost half of GDP and employment

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Canada’s big cities took the toughest knocks during the pandemic, as families fled to the suburbs and beyond and office buildings emptied out.

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Yet despite concerns about “big city cores getting hollowed out,” the reality is they still drive Canada’s economic activity, says a report from Bank of Montreal economists Robert Kavcic and Erik Johnson.

The economists say Canada’s four biggest cities — Toronto, Montreal,  Vancouver and Calgary — have bounced back from the pandemic shock — albeit with a few bumps and scrapes.

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Employment in these cities is now 8 per cent higher than in 2019, compared to 6 per cent for the rest of Canada, the report says.

Some industries such as restaurants, hotels and other direct services are still below their past peaks, but surging employment in other areas has made up for it.

Professional and technical industries, education, finance and public administration have all soared above pre-COVID levels, suggesting that big cities are not being hollowed out, but the sources of growth are reshaping, said the economists.

“In an economy where knowledge sector jobs are increasingly driving employment growth, cities will remain important engines of economic activity,” they said.

A look at BMO’s chart below shows that even during the depths of the pandemic the contribution of the country’s biggest cities was staggering, with Toronto’s output towering over the provinces.

In 2020, the four largest cities accounted for 44 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product and 41 per cent of total employment.

“When it comes to overall economic activity, the big cities are still providing significant muscle,” they said.

BMO Economics

The high of cost of living continues to drive younger families out. The economists said by mid-2022 about 120,000 people on net moved out of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver combined to other parts of their respective provinces.

Canada has also seen record migration between provinces, with Ontario losing almost 40,000 people on net in the latest year, mostly to Alberta and Atlantic Canada.

“Unlike in past cycles, when younger families would move to find work, or better-paying jobs, affordability is now the biggest motivator,” said the economists.

But immigration is more than filling the void.

Adult population growth in the four largest cities is just under 4 per cent year over year, exceeding the 2.6 per cent growth for the rest of the country.

“The reality is that the big cities are a big draw for international immigrants,” they said.

That’s not to say there aren’t problems.

While young, productive families are pushed out, the flow of newcomers puts immediate stress on housing, services and infrastructure that has become a “major challenge” for cities, said the economists.

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Remote and hybrid work is also keeping weekday activity well below “normal” in downtown cores. Public transit ridership is down almost 20 per cent from 2019 across Canada, and in Toronto, it’s off 23 per cent. With transit revenues slumping, municipalities are left to foot the bill, says the report.

Then there is commercial real estate, whose woes have been well documented lately. Office vacancy rates climbed to a “historic high” of 18.3 per cent in Canada last year, and the economists said there is no evidence declining demand has hit bottom in Toronto and Montreal.

Amid uncertain demand and higher borrowing costs, investors continue to turn away from office real estate and further price corrections are still possible, they said.

Another strike against big cities is housing affordability. While this problem is bad across the country, it’s especially bad in these larger centres.

The average home in Regina costs $307,600; in Vancouver you’re looking at $1.27 million and Toronto $1.1 million, the report says.

BMO’s bottom line: “Despite the challenges facing Canada’s largest cities coming out of the pandemic, they are poised to remain key drivers of future economic growth,” said the economists.

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National Bank of Canada

Cooler inflation was a welcome relief to Canadians and probably the Bank of Canada this week. The inflation rate decelerated to 2.8 per cent in February, data showed Tuesday, the first time the consumer price index has fallen within the central bank’s target range for two straight months since early 2021. If you strip out shelter costs, which are linked to higher interest rates, inflation is 1.3 per cent for the nation, and 2 per cent or below for the provinces, says National Bank of Canada economist Stéfane Marion. Manitoba slips into deflation.

The numbers highlight that there is the risk the Bank of Canada is already doing damage to the economy with overly restrictive rates, said Marion.

“The last time the BOC’s policy rate was as high as it is now with so many provinces with CPI exshelter inflation below 2 per cent was in the early 1990s,” he said. “That did not end well for the Canadian economy.”


  • Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle speaks in Toronto on “Normalization of the Balance Sheet.”
  • Today’s Data: Canada new housing price index, United States current account balance, existing home sales
  • Earnings: Lululemon Athletic Inc, Lithium Americas Argentina Cor, Accenture PLC, NIKE Inc, FedEx Corp.
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Stock markets, March 21, 2024

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Financial help for your children can range from helping them keep their heads above water to helping them to buy a house, as well as gifting in your lifetime rather than letting the kids wait for their inheritance. The risk is whether you can afford to make a gift in the first place. Ted Rechtshaffen helps you do the homework before you put a bow on it.


Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you wondering how to make ends meet? Drop us a line at aholloway@postmedia.com with your contact info and the general gist of your problem and we’ll try to find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). If you have a simpler question, the crack team at FP Answers led by Julie Cazzin or one of our columnists can give it a shot.

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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