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Lululemon 'can't keep outgrowing market' when it's the leader – Yahoo Finance

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Athletic apparel brands Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU) are falling Friday morning as the two stocks take a hit despite both companies topping their latest earnings expectations. Bernstein Senior Analyst Aneesha Sherman shares her insights on the athletic wear stocks, particularly Lululemon as it continues to capture more market share from luxury retail consumers.

“Year-to-date, in January [and] continuing into February and early March, the trends have been very weak in the US market, in particular. Management talked about this on the call yesterday, they said there was some challenging US consumer dynamics — traffic is flowing, conversion is flowing,” Sherman says. “I think it’s a combination of macro, the middle-income consumer is getting squeezed right now and that is the Lulu consumer…”

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor’s note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

JARED BLIKRE: I want to shift gears to Lululemon, got to talk about that as well, strong results. I mean, strong reaction at least in the stock market to about this. But I guess some of the other analysts were worrying about the current environments. Fourth quarter is strong. But there are some trends month to date that seem to be troubling some analysts. I’m wondering if you can comment on that?

ANEESHA SHERMAN: Yeah. The trends recently, so holiday was very strong in December and that’s what drove the strong Q4 performance. But year to date in January and continuing into February and early March, the trends have been very weak in the US market in particular. And management talked about this on the call yesterday, they said there’s some challenging US consumer dynamics. Traffic is slowing. Conversion is slowing.

I think it’s a combination of macro. I mean, the middle income consumers getting squeezed right now and that is the consumer. But it’s also Lulus getting really big in the US. It is the number one market share holder in women’s apparel. And you can’t keep outgrowing the market once you’re the market leader. And so a little bit of that slowdown that was overdue is finally caught up to the stock.

SEANA SMITH: Aneesha, some of that slowdown a bit surprising to you, given the fact that high end consumer has held up so strong up until this point in Lulu hasn’t really seen much of that pressure before?

ANEESHA SHERMAN: But I think the key in what you’re saying is up until this point. We are seeing weakness in the high end consumer. Now where other premium brands. If you talk about Nordstrom, we talk about Coach, you talk about caring. They are seeing weakness in that consumer, which is the Lulu consumer. So it is not just low income pressure anymore. It is really creeping up the income spectrum and is hurting that Lulu consumer in a way that it wasn’t a year ago.

JARED BLIKRE: Aneesha, since we’re in between earnings periods right now, any trends or any thoughts on trends that you’ve seen develop over the last quarter, heading into the next one, what are the things that are on your radar right now?

ANEESHA SHERMAN: We’re seeing continued softness in the US market and consumer. Once we get to the summer, I think we will start to anniversary. Some of last year’s softness so we should see some incremental growth. And particularly, for the sportswear brands who are seeing some big sporting events coming up the Paris Olympics. The euro cup and soccer that should drive some traction as well.

So H2 is looking more optimistic than H1. H2 order books are stronger than H1. And H2 inventory levels will be cleaner than H1. So it does feel like it’s a bit of a year of two halves where we’re still in the thick of the H1 weakness. But things will start looking better as we get into mid-year.

SEANA SMITH: Aneesha, what do we need to see from Lululemon to spark some of that re acceleration of growth?

ANEESHA SHERMAN: I think we need to see some growth in the men’s business. So this has been a big growth area for them, which was meant to be helping to offset some of the slowdown in the core women’s business. But men’s has actually underperformed women’s this year. And Lulu CEO on the call yesterday talked about how men are a little bit more conservative with buying as well.

But he also talked about new innovation that they have out. They have new men’s pants, new men’s shoes. So if we see that starting to work in the men’s business starts picking up, that may offset some of the weakness in the women’s business as it starts to mature and slow which will be a positive catalyst for this.

SEANA SMITH: Now our colleague Brad Smith very excited about the new lineup of men’s shoes over at Lululemon. All right. Aneesha Sherman, always great to talk to you. Thanks so much for joining us here Bernstein senior analyst. Thanks Aneesha.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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