Canada staged a large-scale diplomatic deployment this week in preparation for a U.S. presidential election of more consequence than usual.
More than a dozen Canadian diplomats posted in various U.S. cities came to Washington to meet with scores of American lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Looming over their visit was the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. In particular, there’s one Trump policy they’re watching warily this year.
The former president has promised a worldwide tariff on imported goods if he wins. This would be stricter than any trade policy from his first term.
Trump has offered minimal details about the policy in his campaign literature and in media interviews but has said he envisions a 10 per cent global tax.
Would that apply to Canada?
Neither Canadian officials, nor Trump’s allies, have a clear answer on that. Trump has been vague about which countries and products might be included or exempted.
But Canada’s starting position, as one might expect, is that, no, there should not be penalties on a country — ours — that recently signed a free-trade agreement with Trump, which he has praised repeatedly as the best ever.
“We will have a serious conversation with them if they’re looking to apply that policy to us,” Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador, told CBC News.
“But I think the starting point is that it shouldn’t — and we have just concluded a deal that is 99 per cent tariff-free,” she said, referring to the new NAFTA.
Kirsten Hillman, Canadian ambassador to the U.S., led a delegation that consisted of a dozen Canadian consuls-general to various U.S. cities as they met with over 50 members of Congress this week. (CBC)
Tariffs on Canada? Depends who you ask
It’s worth watching Trump’s platform closely, as current polls give him a decent chance of being returned to office in the November election.
Even in Washington there’s no clear consensus on what his policy might ultimately look like. Ask different people about tariffs on Canada, and you’ll get different answers.
“I have a hard time believing that would be the case,” Michigan Republican congressman Bill Huizenga told CBC News. “Especially when it comes to the trade agreement that he negotiated, and led.”
North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer says that’s exactly what he tells Trump: “We talk about these things a fair bit,” he said. “I think we should have a North American strategy. Not a U.S.-only strategy.”
Sen. Kevin Cramer, seen here in 2018 with Trump, says he speaks frequently to the former president and advises him against tariffs within North America. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)
An expert who supports Trump’s tariff policies says he’s not sure this will affect nations with free-trade deals; he suspects it probably will, but adds that Trump is attempting to do something unprecedented under modern law.
“There’s literally no precedent,” said Charles Benoit, a Canadian-born, U.S.-based trade lawyer with Coalition For A Prosperous America, a pro-domestic manufacturing group.
He expects Trump would invoke the Trade Act of 1974. Its section 122 allows a president to set a maximum 15 per cent tariff, for up to 150 days, in the event of a balance-of-payments deficit with other nations, which the U.S. consistently has.
He says Trump could then try extending it, again and again, every 150 days. This would certainly trigger lawsuits, as the law says extending it requires an act of Congress.
Benoit’s advice: Let it lapse for a day, then keep reimposing the tariffs every 151 days.
“I think that that’s something that the president could do. Just do it — [and] do it a second time after letting it lapse,” he said in an interview.
Despite looming threats to Canada-U.S. trade relations from presidential candidate Donald Trump, ‘Team Canada’ is confident American industry leaders know that Canada is ‘essential’ to economic growth in North America, says Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne.
One of Washington’s best-known trade-policy experts over several decades says such behaviour would make a mockery of the language in the bill.
It would be challenged in court, Gary Hufbauer said. Meanwhile, countries would launch retaliatory tariffs.
As for Canada, here’s his prediction: The northern neighbour will get an exclusion, as would Mexico. But it won’t come for free.
He expects Trump to use the threat as a negotiating ploy — a stick to threaten Canada and Mexico into making concessions.
“He will bargain — to get something for that exclusion,” Hufbauer said, noting that when it comes to Trump, “[It’s] all transactional.”
As for what Trump might ask for, he’s already complained, as has the Biden administration, about the way Canada has implemented certain aspects of the new NAFTA. Specifically, dairy and autos.
“Dairy comes up right away,” Hufbauer predicted.
Parsing the words of Trump’s trade czar
One thing Trump has already succeeded at doing is reorienting the American political consensus on trade.
The current Biden administration has maintained most of his policies. The two presidents may differ in style, but they agree substantively on trade.
That philosophy has been articulated at length by Trump’s former trade minister. In his book and several magazine pieces, Robert Lighthizer has laid out some of the tariff policies Trump is now running on.
Trump’s former trade minister Robert Lighthizer, seen here in 2020, remains influential. He has advocated for these tariffs and argued in detail for why the U.S. needs tougher trade policy. (Andrew Harnik/Reuters)
Lighthizer remains in the picture: He’s advising the Trump campaign, and recently said publicly that he intends to be involved in the next administration if Trump wins; either serving in an official role, or as an outside adviser.
His basic argument is that globalization has impoverished the U.S. working class; made the country incapable of producing vital goods; lost manufacturing industries that drive innovation; and left it dependent on a potential military rival (China) for basic everyday products.
He has little patience for people who call the United States protectionist, when it has among the lowest tariffs in the world.
And when it comes to Canada, Lighthizer’s book takes the country to task for seeing itself as a free trader, then adopting “parochial” and “protectionist” policies around everything from dairy to television to telecoms.
He said tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel were useful; Trump imposed them, then lifted them, and threatened to reimpose them.
“The fact that President Trump was willing to impose tariffs on two of America’s closest trading partners — one of whom, Canada, is also one of our closest allies — sent an unmistakable signal that business as usual was over,” Lighthizer wrote in his book, No Trade Is Free.
Canada, Mexico defeat U.S. in auto part rules dispute
Mexico and Canada have won a trade dispute with the United States over rules of origin for auto parts, which could help protect Canadian businesses and jobs.
What next?
The tangible effects of Trump’s trade policies remain in dispute.
Several studies say his tariffs had a minimal positive impact on U.S. jobs, and a minimal harmful impact on the economy and inflation.
One trade economist and historian says Trump’s policies shifted some production from China, primarily to Vietnam and Mexico; meanwhile, China bought more food from Brazil.
“In the political debate, both the benefits and the costs [of tariffs] tend to get exaggerated,” said Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College.
But what Trump is proposing now is bigger than his first-term tariffs, which the Congressional Budget Office said shaved 0.3 per cent off the U.S. economy.
Trump also wants Congress to pass a law that would allow reciprocal tariffs — massive duties on countries with high tariffs, like India and China.
Trump touts his tariffs on washing machines at an Ohio Whirlpool plant in 2020. A study by economists at the U.S. Federal Reserve says those tariffs created 1,800 jobs, but raised prices on washing machines by about $90. It’s an example of how tariffs had small effects, both positive and negative. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
Irwin says the real risk is that in the long term, Trump’s policies could trigger a domino effect, toppling the rules-based trading system, making commerce more political and less predictable and leading to tit-for-tat retaliation. He says countries that rely most heavily on the U.S. for trade are the most vulnerable.
“You’re right to be worried in Canada.”
Benoit takes the opposite view. If Trump managed to enact his entire agenda, with the biggest tariffs on Asia, he says Canada would enjoy a renaissance in manufacturing.
Instead of reflexively opposing some of these policies, he says Canada should offer to team up with Trump to impose similar tariffs against China.
“Canada should say: ‘We’re with you. We’re walking shoulder to shoulder with you,’ ” Benoit said.
WASHINGTON (AP) — An Alaska man accused of sending graphic threats to injure and kill six Supreme Court justices and some of their family members has been indicted on federal charges, authorities said Thursday.
Panos Anastasiou, 76, is accused of sending more than 465 messages through a public court website, including graphic threats of assassination and torture coupled with racist and homophobic rhetoric.
The indictment does not specify which justices Anastasiou targeted, but Attorney General Merrick Garland said he made the graphic threats as retaliation for decisions he disagreed with.
“Our democracy depends on the ability of public officials to do their jobs without fearing for their lives or the safety of their families,” he said.
Anastasiou has been indicted on 22 counts, including nine counts of making threats against a federal judge and 13 counts of making threats in interstate commerce.
He was released from detention late Thursday by a federal magistrate in Anchorage with a a list of conditions, including that he not directly or indirectly contact any of the six Supreme Court justices he allegedly threatened or any of their family members.
During the hearing that lasted more than hour, Magistrate Kyle Reardon noted some of the messages Anastasiou allegedly sent between March 2023 and mid-July 2024, including calling for the assassination of two of the Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices so the current Democratic president could appoint their successors.
Instead of toning down his rhetoric after receiving a visit from FBI agents last year, Anastasiou increased the frequency of his messages and their vitriolic language, Reardon said.
Gray-haired and shackled at the ankles above his salmon-colored plastic slippers, Anastasiou wore a yellow prison outfit with ACC printed in black on the back, the initials for the Anchorage Correctional Facility, at the hearing. Born in Greece, he moved to Anchorage 67 years ago. Reardon allowed him to contact his elected officials on other matters like global warming, but said the messages must be reviewed by his lawyers.
Defense attorney Jane Imholte noted Anastasiou is a Vietnam veteran who is undergoing treatment for throat cancer and has no financial means other than his Social Security benefits.
She told the judge that Anastaiou, who signed his own name to the emails, worried about his pets while being detained. She said he only wanted to return home to care for his dogs, Freddie, Buddy and Cutie Pie.
He faces a maximum of 10 years in prison for each count of making threats against a federal judge and up to five years for each count of making threats in interstate commerce if convicted.
Threats targeting federal judges overall have more than doubled in recent years amid a surge of similar violent messages directed at public officials around the country, the U.S. Marshals Service previously said.
In 2022, shortly after the leak of a draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, a man was stopped near the home of Justice Brett Kavanaugh with weapons and zip ties.
ROME (AP) — Canadian and Italian dignitaries on Thursday marked the successful recovery of a photo portrait of Winston Churchill known as “The Roaring Lion,” stolen in Canada and recovered in Italy after a two-year search by police.
At a ceremony at the Canadian Embassy in Rome, Italian carabinieri police handed over the portrait to the Canadian ambassador to Italy, Elissa Goldberg, who praised the cooperation between Italian and Canadian investigators that led to the recovery.
The 1941 portrait of the British leader taken by Ottawa photographer Yousuf Karsh is now ready for the last step of its journey home to the Fairmont Château Laurier, the hotel in Ottawa where it was stolen and will once again be displayed as a notable historic portrait.
Canadian police said the portrait was stolen from the hotel sometime between Christmas 2021 and Jan. 6, 2022, and replaced with a forgery. The swap was only uncovered months later, in August, when a hotel worker noticed the frame was not hung properly and looked different than the others.
Nicola Cassinelli, a lawyer in Genoa, Italy, purchased the portrait in May 2022 at an online Sotheby’s auction for 5,292 British pounds. He says he got a phone call from the auction house that October advising him not to sell or otherwise transfer the portrait due to an investigation into the Ottawa theft.
Cassinelli, who attended Thursday’s ceremony, said he thought he was buying a regular print and quickly agreed to send the iconic Churchill photograph home when he learned its true story.
“I immediately decided to return it to the Chateau Laurier, because I think that if Karsh donated it to the hotel, it means he really wanted it to stay there, for the particular significance this hotel had for him, and for his wife too,” Cassinelli told The Associated Press.
The famous image was taken by Karsh during Churchill’s wartime visit to the Canadian Parliament in December 1941. It helped launch Karsh’s career, who photographed some of the 20th century’s most famed icons, including Nelson Mandela, Albert Einstein and Queen Elizabeth.
Karsh and his wife Estrellita gifted an original signed print to the Fairmont Chateau Laurier in 1998. The couple had lived and operated a studio inside the hotel for nearly two decades.
Geneviève Dumas, general manager of the Fairmont Château Laurier, said on Thursday she felt immensely grateful.
“I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to everybody involved in solving this case, and ensuring the safe return of this priceless piece of history.”
Police arrested a 43-year-old man from Powassan, Ontario, in April and have charged him with stealing and trafficking the portrait. The man, whose name is protected by a publication ban, faces charges that include forgery, theft over $5,000 and trafficking in property obtained by crime exceeding $5,000.
CULIACAN, Mexico (AP) — Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador blamed the United States in part on Thursday for the surge in cartel violence terrorizing the northern state of Sinaloa which has left at least 30 people dead in the past week.
Two warring factions of the Sinaloa cartel have clashed in the state capital of Culiacan in what appears to be a fight for power since two of its leaders were arrested in the United States in late July. Teams of gunmen have shot at each other and the security forces.
Meanwhile, dead bodies continued to pop up around the city. On one busy street corner, cars drove by pools of the blood leading to a body in a car mechanic shop, while heavily armed police in black masks loaded up another body stretched out on a side street of the Sinaloan city.
Asked at his morning briefing if the U.S. government was “jointly responsible” for this violence in Sinaloa, the president said, “Yes, of course … for having carried out this operation.”
The recent surge in cartel warfare had been expected after Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of former Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, landed near El Paso, Texas on July 25 in a small plane with Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.
Zambada was the cartel’s elder figure and reclusive leader. After his arrest, he said in a letter circulated by his lawyer that he had been abducted by the younger Guzmán and taken to the U.S. against his will.
On Thursday afternoon, another military operation covered the north of Culiacan with military and circling helicopters.
Traffic was heavy in Culiacan and most schools were open, even though parents were still not sending their children to classes. Businesses continue to close early and few people venture out after dark. While the city has slowly reopened and soldiers patrol the streets, many families continue to hide away, with parents and teachers fearing they’ll be caught in the crossfire.
“Where is the security for our children, for ourselves too, for all citizens? It’s so dangerous here, you don’t want to go outside,” one Culiacan mother told the Associated Press.
The mother, who didn’t want to share her name out of fear of the cartels, said that while some schools have recently reopened, she hasn’t allowed her daughter to go for two weeks. She said she was scared to do so after armed men stopped a taxi they were traveling in on their way home, terrifying her child.
During his morning press briefing, López Obrador had claimed American authorities “carried out that operation” to capture Zambada and that “it was totally illegal, and agents from the Department of Justice were waiting for Mr. Mayo.”
“If we are now facing instability and clashes in Sinaloa, it is because they (the American government) made that decision,” he said.
He added that there “cannot be a cooperative relationship if they take unilateral decisions” like this. Mexican prosecutors have said they were considering bringing treason charges against those involved in the plan to nab Zambada.
He was echoed by President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who said later in the day that “we can never accept that there is no communication or collaboration.”
It’s the latest escalation of tensions in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. Last month, the Mexican president said he was putting relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies “on pause” after ambassadors criticized his controversial plan to overhaul Mexico’s judiciary by requiring all judges to stand for election.
Still, the Zambada capture has fueled criticisms of López Obrador, who has throughout his administration refused to confront cartels in a strategy he refers to as “hugs not bullets.” On previous occasions, he falsely stated that cartels respect Mexican citizens and largely fight amongst themselves.
While the president, who is set to leave office at the end of the month, has promised his plan would reduce cartel violence, such clashes continue to plague Mexico. Cartels employ an increasing array of tactics, including roadside bombs or IEDs, trenches, home-made armored vehicles and bomb-dropping drones.
