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Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows? – Al Jazeera English

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All eyes will be on Friday’s US unemployment numbers to see how many jobs were added in March and whether the unemployment rate continues to stay in its historically low range or if it is time for the alarm bells to start ringing.

Job growth in the United States has continued at a steady clip in the months since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when businesses came to a sudden stop.

“In the aftermath of the pandemic as things started to pick back up, there was a real struggle to find people to work and companies had to raise how much you paid to get people,” said Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.

There are a number of factors behind that, including restrictions on the number of foreigners entering the country during the COVID-19 pandemic and baby boomers dropping out of the workforce for fear of the pandemic, creating nearly a shortage of some two million workers aged 55 and older.

As business ground to a halt as a result of the pandemic, nearly 22 million jobs were lost. A lot of the hiring since then has been about refilling those roles, said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade, adding: “It’s not like those jobs went away.”

Since the start of the pandemic, the US economy has lost 21,888,000 jobs and has added 27,387,000, according to Allianz Trade data. “You could argue that the economy has created only 5,499,000 new jobs,” said North.

But jobs are being created, nonetheless. While employment fell by 243,000 jobs in December 2020, following seven consecutive months of increases, the labour market has consistently added jobs each month since then, taking the US economy on a 38-month streak of monthly job gains.

If payroll employment is shown to have risen in March in Friday’s monthly jobs report, which is released at 8:30am local (12:30 GMT), then it will be a 39-month streak.

Healthcare and state sector driving jobs

While jobs in the leisure and hospitality sectors are still catching up to pre-pandemic levels, two sectors that are driving job growth are healthcare and state and local government, experts said.

“Healthcare in the US has always been under-supplied in terms of labour so a strong growth in that sector is a good thing,” said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics. “Our hospitals and health clinics should be fully staffed, especially given an ageing population.”

Hiring for government jobs is still focused on filling jobs that were lost during the pandemic, said Yaros. That sector was a late starter because of the government’s inability to match private sector salaries in order to attract talent, he said. But now that hiring is slowing down in the private sector, jobs in the state sector have seen solid growth, he added.

A lot of the hiring is also being driven by a rebound in immigration since 2023 – both legal and undocumented – that has allowed the economy to continue adding more than 200,000 jobs a month, said Yaros.

“When there’s an increase in labour supply through immigration, it allows for strong growth. But that doesn’t lead to inflation because you have more people looking for work so employers don’t have to raise wages [as much] to attract workers”, Yaros said.

However, hiring in most other sectors remains volatile and mixed, he added.

‘Starting to see some disruption’

“Underneath the shiny headlines, we are starting to see some disruption,” said North.

On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, from the US Department of Labor showed there were 1.36 vacancies for every unemployed person in February, down from 1.43 in January. The decline indicates a rise in unemployment.

According to the data, layoffs reached 1.7 million in February, up from 1.6 million in January. Job openings are down 11 percent year-on-year and job quits – the number of workers resigning from their jobs, likely for better opportunities, said North – have returned to pre-COVID levels, indicating that wage increases will not be as fast-paced or high as they have been.

Unemployment numbers, while still at historic lows, are slowly starting to creep up, hitting 3.9 percent last month, up from 3.7 percent for each of the three months prior.

While the unemployment rate has been below 4 percent for just over two years in a row – the longest such stretch since the late 1960s – the mood is starting to change. In a March consumer confidence survey by The Conference Board, consumers said that jobs are harder to get and that they expect their incomes to decrease over the next six months.

The question now is if, or when, unemployment numbers will break through 4 percent.

“If it goes up to 4.1 percent next month, everyone will start talking about the Sahm rule,” said North, referring to former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, who invented a measure that examines how fast the unemployment rate is rising to determine if it is an indication of a recession.

While most economists agree that the chances of the US economy slipping into a recession have receded, a rise in the unemployment rate will slow down economic growth.

All of this feeds into decisions that the Fed will have to take on whether to cut interest rates, and how quickly. The benchmark overnight interest rate is in the 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent range, where it has been since July to curb a 40-year high inflation spike. While inflation has come down since then and is hovering around 3.2 percent as of the end of February, the latest data available, that’s still higher than the Fed target of 2 percent.

In such a scenario, a robust job market – and a healthy spending ability alongside – will have the Fed looking for signs of a rise in inflation, delaying interest cuts.

But a slowdown in hiring – and a rise in unemployment, ultimately – could bring the prospect of interest rate cuts. The data on Friday will offer some clues.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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