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Canada's unemployment rate jumps to 6.1%, raising bets for June rate cut – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Statistics Canada will release its labour force survey report for November on Friday. Workers are shown at new housing development in Pickering, Ont. on Monday, May 15, 2023.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Canada’s labour market lost 2,200 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate increased to 6.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young) (The Canadian Press)

Canada’s labour market stalled in March, as it lost 2,200 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 6.1 per cent, raising bets that the Bank of Canada will come off the sidelines and cut rates in June.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a net gain of 25,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate to edge up from 5.8 per cent in February to 5.9 per cent.

The increase in unemployment, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, was driven by an increase of 60,000 people searching for work or on temporary layoff, Statistics Canada said on Friday. It’s the biggest monthly jump since Aug. 2022, and the highest rate since January 2022, when unemployment reached 6.5 per cent. Outside the COVID-19 pandemic, the last time Canada’s unemployment rate hit 6.1 per cent was Nov. 2017.

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“The cracks that had been emerging within the Canadian labour market suddenly got a lot wider,” CIBC economist Andrew Grantham wrote in a research note on Friday, noting that while the loss of 2,200 net jobs “isn’t a large decline given the volatility of monthly labour market data”, it came in contrast to Canada’s surging population.

“While markets had been pushing back expectations for a first Bank of Canada interest rate cut following strong GDP data to start the year, today’s labour force data should see them pulling those expectations forward again closer in line to our expectation for a first move in June.”

Expectations that the Bank of Canada will soon cut rates have started to rise in light of recent data. Canada’s inflation rate unexpectedly cooled to 2.8 per cent in February, marking the second month in a row that inflation hit within the central bank’s target range of between one and three per cent.

Money markets increased their bets for a rate cut in June to close to a 75 per cent probability, from 67 per cent before the numbers were released.

“Combined with the recent run of soft CPI prints, these numbers should have the Bank of Canada opening the door next week to easing policy around the middle of this year,” Desjardins managing director and head of macro strategy Royce Mendes wrote in a research note on Friday.

Our view is still that the central bank will begin a forceful rate cutting cycle this year, which extends into next year, to offset the impacts on the economy from mortgage renewals and slower population growth.”

The Bank of Canada is set to make its next interest rate announcement Wednesday.

“Today’s report casts a cloud over the Canadian economy, but it is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking when it meets next week,” TD Economics director and senior economist James Orlando wrote in a research note on Friday, noting that data outside the weak jobs report has been “quite strong” and “validated the Bank’s decision to remain patient with the start of rate cuts.”

“While it has afforded the central bank some extra time to wait to ensure inflation remains on its downward trajectory 2 per cent, markets are increasingly betting that the BoC will pull the trigger on its first rate cut in June.”

Wage growth increased in March, with average hourly wages up 5.1 per cent year-over-year, after showing signs of cooling in February with an annual increase of 4.9 per cent.

Statistics Canada said there were fewer people working in the accommodation and food services industry (down 23,000), wholesale and retail trade (down 27,000) and professional, scientific and technical services (down 20,000). Employment in healthcare and social assistance increased in March (up 40,000) as well as in the construction industry (up 15,000).

In February, Canada’s labour market added a net 40,700 jobs, more than what economists had expected, affirming the view that the Bank of Canada would continue to wait before loosening monetary policy.

With files from Reuters.

Alicja Siekierska is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @alicjawithaj.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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