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New condo market in Toronto hits 15-year low: 'It is dead' – The Globe and Mail

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Condo construction is shown in Ajax, Ont., on Nov. 30, 2023.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press

New condo sales in the Toronto region dropped to their lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis, with investors balking at lofty purchase prices and higher borrowing costs.

The slowdown has imperilled the construction of homes at a time when governments are desperately trying to spur more building in a bid to make housing more affordable. The cost of housing is out of reach for many Canadian residents with the average monthly rent around $2,000 and the typical home selling for more than $700,000. The pace of home building needs to accelerate to meet demand of a growing population. But the staggering drop in new condo sales will lead to less investment in housing.

There were 1,461 new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in the first quarter of the year, according to industry research firm Urbanation Inc. That marked the lowest quarterly amount since early 2009, when the world was reeling from the U.S. housing meltdown and global recession.

“It is dead. I would never use words like this, but I am because it is true,” said Simeon Papailias, managing partner with real estate brokerage REC Canada, whose firm sells new condos, also known as preconstruction condos because they have not been built yet.

Mr. Papailias said his firm used to handle an average of 300 preconstruction sales a day. So far this year, there has been an average of 500 preconstruction sales per month.

The preconstruction condo market started to falter in 2022 as the Bank of Canada raised interest rates to cool inflation. Preconstruction buyers do not take out a mortgage until their condo unit is built and that process can take several years. However, they still need to show developers up front that they can qualify for a loan when the condo building has been completed.

And it’s not just the high borrowing costs. New condo prices have been climbing as developers face higher construction costs. Although prices declined incrementally from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of this year, some downtown Toronto projects have been selling for a minimum of $1,800 per square foot. That means a 500 square foot studio would cost $900,000. That is unattractive for prospective homeowners who plan to live in their condo, as well as for investors, who make up the bulk of the preconstruction purchases.

Buyers can find cheaper and larger condos that have already been built. “Existing square footage is so much cheaper. The builders and their future pricing is a huge issue,” said Tuli Parubets, a mortgage agent with Mortgage Scout who works with homebuyers in the Toronto region.

Investors would have to charge more than the going market rental rate to cover their mortgage and other condo-related costs. “It’s very difficult for investors to make the numbers work on buying new condos, given their record high price premium over resales and steeply negative cash flow on rentals,” said Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand.

Pierre Carapetian, who has sold real estate in the Toronto region for 18 years, said he has steered his clients away from preconstruction homes into the resale market because resale homes are cheaper.

“In the last two years, I have not recommended a single project,” said Mr. Carapetian, who runs his own real estate brokerage. “I could not in good conscience recommend anything at this juncture because it makes no logical sense.”

As a result, demand has crumbled and developers have put projects on hold. Urbanation said since the market started slowing in 2022, it has counted five dozen projects have been put on hold indefinitely. That accounts for 21,505 condo units.

For projects that have been launched, the weak pace of sales is affecting their ability to get financing to start construction. During the first quarter, projects in the preconstruction phase were only 50 per cent sold, on average. That compared to an average of 61 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, and an average of 85 per cent in 2022.

Lenders typically require developers to sell 70 per cent of their units for construction financing. The longer it takes to sell preconstruction condos, the longer it will take to get financing and start construction. That will eventually lead to fewer homes being built.

“No launches, no sales and no starts,” said Mr. Papailias. “It’s absolutely the most vicious cycle.”

The slowdown is occurring as governments try to make it easier for real estate developers to build. The federal government recently announced that it will allow first-time homebuyers to take out a 30-year mortgage for a preconstruction home if they make a deposit that is less than 20 per cent of the home’s purchase price and they pay for mortgage insurance. The old mortgage rules did not allow insured-mortgage borrowers to take out a loan longer than 25 years.

However, given that Toronto region developers typically require a 20 per cent deposit, the longer amortization is not expected to make a big difference in the new home market.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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