The value of Japan’s currency has tumbled so much, that its value is back to where it was in 1990, shortly after Japan’s famous “bubble economy” burst. For a moment on Monday it was trading at 160 yen to US$1. A few years ago, it was closer to 100 yen to US$1.
The yen’s accelerating slide could ultimately be bad news for people in Japan. A weaker yen squeezes households by increasing import costs. Japan is heavily reliant on imports for both energy supplies and food, meaning inflation could rise.
A weaker yen is however a boon for Japanese exporters’ profits – and for tourists visiting Japan who find their currencies going further.
Why has the yen fallen so far?
The yen has been steadily sliding for more than three years, losing more than a third of its value since the start of 2021.
One factor behind its fall is momentum: the yen falls because investors are selling it – and investors continue to sell it because it is falling. In such instances, the market enters a self-fulfilling loop.
As a result of the falling currency, exporters are discouraged from converting foreign proceeds into yen, further decreasing demand.
However there are also major policy reasons for the currency’s sharp decline.
For years, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept interest rates extraordinarily low to encourage more inflation in its economy, as well as to boost bank lending and spur demand.
In February, in the face of widespread labour shortages and a weakening yen, Japan was overtaken by Germany as the world’s third-biggest economy and slipped into recession.
With low interest rates seen as a key factor in the rapid decline of the yen, last month the BOJ ended its policy of keeping its benchmark interest rate below zero, lifting its short-term policy rate from -0.1% to between zero and 0.1%.
After that decision, markets were then focused on the pace of further rate rises. On Friday, the BOJ announced it would hold interest rates steady, signalling that further increases weren’t imminent. This precipitated another round of selloffs in the yen, putting more pressure on the currency.
It was this wave of selloffs that drove the currency down to 160 yen to the dollar for the first time since 1990.
What effect is it having?
The decades-low value of the yen means tourist dollars are going further than they have for generations, leading to a boom in the industry. As well as the US dollar, the yen has also hit multi-year lows against the euro, the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan – all strong tourism markets for Japan.
In February, Japan recorded 2.79 million visitors – a record for the month.
Domestic consumption, however, remains a major weak spot. Households tend to be net importers and are facing higher prices due to the weak yen.
The weakening yen is also a factor in the decision by big Japanese investors’ to keep their cash abroad, where it can earn better returns. This trend is exacerbated by an unusually strong US dollar which has meant that American investments and assets offer far better returns for major financial institutions.
Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022, selling US dollars it holds in reserve in order to buy yen. Tokyo is estimated to have spent around $60bn defending the currency at that time.
On Monday, after briefly hitting its multi-decade low, the yen rose sharply, leading traders to suspect that after weeks of threatening to intervene, Japan had stepped in to support its currency.
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, declined to comment when asked if authorities in Tokyo had intervened.
“Today’s move, if it represents intervention by the authorities, is unlikely to be a one-and-done move,” said Nicholas Chia, Asia macro strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.
“We can likely expect more follow through from [Japan’s Ministry of Finance] if the dollar/yen pair travels to 160 again. In a sense, the 160-level represents the pain threshold, or new line in the sand for the authorities.”
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.
“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.
Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.
But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.
Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.
“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.
“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.
A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.
It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.
More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.
“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.
In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.
“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
