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Canada's economic growth misses estimates, boosting chances of rate cut – Yahoo Canada Finance

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By Promit Mukherjee and Ismail Shakil

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada’s economy likely weakened in the first quarter, data from Statistics Canada showed on Tuesday, bolstering expectations that the Canadian central bank would have more reason to cut interest rates in June.

Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in February, less than analysts’ estimates, while growth in March likely remained muted, Statistics Canada said.

The economic slowdown combined with cooling inflation could add to the evidence the Bank of Canada (BoC) is looking for to start lowering its key interest rate from nearly a 23-year high of 5%.

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The loss of economic momentum into the quarter “puts additional pressure on the BoC to begin cutting as soon as June,” said Benjamin Reitzes, managing director and Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 0.3% GDP growth in the month.

In a preliminary estimate for March, Statscan said GDP was likely unchanged from February as increases in the utilities and real estate, rental and leasing categories were offset by decreases in manufacturing and retail trade.

Growth in January was downwardly revised to 0.5% from 0.6%, it said, and considering March estimates, the economy is likely to have expanded at a 2.5% annualized rate in the first quarter, the fastest growth rate since the first quarter of 2023.

The monthly GDP report is based on Canada’s industrial output while quarterly figures, which will be released next month, are based on an alternate calculation.

The BoC expects growth in the first quarter of 2.8% and 1.5% in the second quarter, it had said in its last monetary policy report earlier this month.

Economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the rebound in January had eased pressure on the central bank to lower rates to avoid a downturn. The chances of a first rate cut happening any time soon were further complicated by strong U.S. data, which has pushed chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve deep into the second half.

“We continue to see the Bank of Canada beginning a rate cutting cycle in June,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy for Desjardins Group, wrote in a note.

Traders and economists had expected Canada’s GDP to weaken as January’s rebound was largely driven by one-off factors.

Money markets slightly increased the odds of a rate cut in June to close to 60% from 56% before the release of the data, while a cut in July is fully priced in.

The Canadian dollar slightly weakened after the GDP data, with the local currency trading 0.51% lower at C$1.3730 per dollar, or 72.89 U.S. cents. The yield on the two-year Canadian government bond rose 2.7 basis points to 4.427%.

The BoC, which had ratcheted up rates to curb a surge in prices, said earlier this month that a reduction in borrowing costs in June was possible if the recent cooling trend in inflation is sustained. Headline inflation came in at 2.9% in March, roughly in line with the central bank’s expectations.

GDP growth in February was driven by a second consecutive monthly rise in the services-producing industries, Statscan said. Transportation and warehousing increased 1.4% in February, the largest monthly growth rate since January 2023, the agency said.

Overall, Canada’s goods-producing sector was unchanged on a month-over-month basis, while the services sector posted a 0.2% increase.

(Additional reporting by Dale Smith; Editing by Louise Heavens and Paul Simao)

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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