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Slowing GDP puts pressure on Bank of Canada to cut: economists – Financial Post

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‘Momentum in the Canadian economy appears to have faded quickly’

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Statistics Canada is predicting gross domestic product growth will be flat in March after data released Tuesday showed the Canadian economy slowed more than expected in February.

On a month-over-month basis, GDP was up just 0.2 per cent in February, missing analyst estimates for growth of 0.3 per cent and the data agency’s advance estimate of 0.4 per cent. Year over year, GDP grew 0.8 per cent, well off expectations for a 1.1 per cent expansion.

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The national data agency also revised January GDP growth down to 0.5 per cent from 0.6 per cent.

Here’s what economists are saying the latest numbers mean for the economy, the Bank of Canada and the path of interest rates.

Slowing momentum: CIBC

“Momentum in the Canadian economy appears to have faded quickly as the first quarter progressed,” Andrew Grantham, an economist with CIBC Economics, said in a note.

Despite the slowdown, Grantham estimates that the economy is on track to grow at a 2.5 per cent annualized rate in the first quarter — close to the Bank of Canada latest estimate of 2.8 per cent.

However, the end-of-quarter weakness could bleed into the second quarter, Grantham warned, posing risks for the central bank’s estimate of 1.5 per cent annualized growth.

“We always suspected that strength at the start of the year largely reflected an easing of previous supply constraints and the effects of better-than-normal winter weather, and that the economy could stall again thereafter,” Grantham said. “Today’s data appear to support that view.”

If the second quarter starts out sluggishly and inflation remains in check, “the Bank of Canada should start gradually reducing interest rates at the June meeting,” he said.

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Rate cut in June: Desjardins

“The slowdown in growth isn’t surprising, given that January’s increase was buoyed by one-off factors,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said in a note.

Mendes is forecasting first-quarter annualized growth of 2.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent in the second quarter, mirroring the Bank of Canada’s estimate.

“As a result, we continue to see the Bank of Canada beginning a rate-cutting cycle in June,” he said.

‘Eerily similar’: BMO

“The start of 2024 looks eerily similar to 2023,” Benjamin Reitzes, macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

In 2023, GDP burst from the starting gate in the first quarter, only to fizzle out.

The first three months of the year look “decent” to Reitzes, but for him the bigger story is “the apparent loss of momentum.”

“That puts additional pressure on the BoC to begin cutting as soon as June,” he said, though he cautions that decision will ultimately depend on the next consumer price index report due on May 21.

There was one other complicating factor, Reitzes said.

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“Unfortunately, persistently strong U.S. data are making things increasingly complicated for the bank, as it appears that the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) could be on hold for a while.”

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‘Unlikely to last’ : TD Bank

“The deceleration in February and March signal this rebound is unlikely to last,” Mark Ercolao, an economist with Toronto-Dominion Economics, said in a note, referring to estimates for annualized growth in the first quarter of 2.5 per cent.

“This should encourage the Bank of Canada, which needs to make sure inflation is on a sustainable path back to two per cent,” Ercolao said, noting that markets are currently split between a first cut in June and July.

TD believes the bank will move in July, “as it will give the bank slightly more time to ensure that inflationary trends are durable.”

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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