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Biden, Trump have debated before, but now the men and politics are vastly different

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When Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off on stage in Atlanta, it will mark the first time a sitting president and a former president have ever debated.

The two have famously squared off before, of course, in 2020, but while the candidates on stage will be the same on Thursday, the men and political circumstances are vastly different in ways that present new challenges for both.

Above all, the consequential rematch is a rare opportunity for both to dramatically change the trajectories of their campaigns heading into a close election’s final months.

“I think it’s going to be an historic and epic debate,” presidential historian Douglas Brinkley told ABC News. “The fact is that with Trump and Biden, it’s the first time ever that we’ve had two people that have been president going at each other.”

What we learned from 2020

What Americans witnessed twice in 2020 — the first time Biden and Trump went head-to-head for the White House — could provide clues about what to expect now in 2024 inside the CNN studio on Thursday.

The first Biden-Trump debate in 2020 was a chaotic clash filled with personal attacks. Moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News raised his voice to scold the candidates over their constant interruptions, most of which came from Trump. At one point, Biden turned to his opponent and said, “Will you shut up, man?”

Their second meeting that year was, by contrast, more civil, as some microphone muting was introduced, and allowed time for the candidates to dive deeper into policy disputes.

A key question for Thursday, then, is which version American voters will see.

In this Oct. 22, 2020 file photo President Donald Trump speaks as Joe Biden, 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, left, listens during the presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn.

Jim Bourg/Reuters/Bloomberg via Getty Images, FILE

“I always like to watch how the candidates treat one another,” said Alan Schroeder, a professor emeritus of journalism at Northeastern University who has written several books about presidential debates.

“In this case, there’s a lot of animosity between the two of them, obviously, looking at their history of having debated before,” Schroeder said. “Added on to that is Trump’s claim that he didn’t lose the election. And so there’s just this undercurrent of hostility that I’ll be looking to see how that manifests itself in the debate.”

The first debate in 2020 proved unpopular with viewers, and for Trump. Polls found Biden was considered the winner of both matches, and it provided a boost to his campaign.

Now, the roles are reversed

Four years ago, it was Trump who had to defend his administration’s record and low poll numbers.

This time, the burden will be on Biden to do the same.

Incumbents historically have struggled in the first debate of their reelection campaign, according to Schroeder. The trend, he said, began with Ronald Reagan in 1984 and continued with Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2020.

Biden’s team, preparing at Camp David this week with 90-minute mock debates and more, wants to hold Trump accountable for remarks he’s made on topics ranging from reproductive rights to the economy and democracy. His team believes the debate format — microphone muting and the lack of a studio audience — will force Trump to engage on the issues.

Republican allies of Trump say he, too, should focus on policy and be more disciplined. Trump’s preparation includes informal policy discussions with aides and experts.

New challenges

For Trump, the effort to overturn his 2020 election loss and the U.S. Capitol attack that unfolded on Jan. 6 continue to shadow his political aims. His historic conviction in New York, tied to a hush money scheme during his 2016 presidential run, looms large with his sentencing just weeks away.

Plus, his role in nominating three Supreme Court justices who voted to strike down Roe v. Wade continues to have negative electoral ramifications for the Republican Party.

For Biden, low approval ratings on two key issues this cycle — the economy (particularly inflation) and immigration — prove a consistent challenge.

And while both men are four years older, questions about age and fitness often plague Biden more than Trump.

PHOTO: In this Sept. 29, 2020 file photo people watch the first presidential debate between President Donald J. Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden, on in Hoboken, N.J.

In this Sept. 29, 2020 file photo people watch the first presidential debate between President Donald J. Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden, on in Hoboken, N.J.

Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, FILE

Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, said he was shocked both candidates agreed to debate given the potential harm it could do to their campaigns.

“I am surprised for a number of reasons,” Madden told ABC News. “First: Trump has some momentum and debates allow his opponent to have an opportunity to shift that momentum. Second: For Biden, because he is going up against somebody who doesn’t play by the rules and will always be on the attack, there is a lot of risk there.”

Observers on both sides commented on what success would look like for each candidate.

Can Trump be disciplined?

“The thing that’s really driving a lot of voter anxiety right now, particularly those voters who haven’t yet decided, is immigration and inflation,” said Madden. “So, if Trump can make this a debate that really focuses on those problems and how he’s going to break away from the current status quo or reverse some of the trends on those issues, that’ll be a big win.”

For Biden, his vigor and presentation — how he appears — may be just as critical as any policy message.

“Where Biden is having some struggles with voters, age always comes up,” said Jim Kessler, the executive vice president for policy at the center-left think tank Third Way. “He gets an opportunity to answer that here. And a good performance goes a long way to making voters feel reassured.”

On issues, Kessler said Biden “needs to exploit his advantage on health care and choice, play to withdraw on the economy and make progress on the border. That’s his challenge in the debate and over the next several months.”

ABC News’ Selina Wang contributed to this report.

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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