A Memorial research team has developed mathematical models to inspire future public health responses to infectious diseases.
Dr. Amy Hurford, an expert in infectious disease modelling in the Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, is working in partnership with Julien Arino and post-doctoral fellow in the Department of Mathematics, Dr. Maria Martignoni.
From left are Drs. Amy Hurford and Maria Martignoni.Photo: Rich Blenkinsopp
It has been over four years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and public health responses and policies continue to vary worldwide.
The effects of these policies are far-reaching and are still felt in every corner of the province, country and world.
These policies can be boiled down to two unique strategies: infection elimination or mitigation.
Led by Dr. Martignoni, the research team identified the need for guidelines that evaluate the appropriateness of an elimination or mitigation strategy early in the pandemic and have been aiding government officials and working groups in Canada to navigate the implementation of policies since 2020.
Their research has now culminated in a quantitative analysis and modelling that will change how future public health policies are implemented.
Mathematical modelling
Elimination strategies, which aim for zero community transmission, have been successful in regions with low travel volumes and strict border control measures, they say.
On the other hand, mitigation strategies, which focus on reducing transmission to manageable levels, are more suited to well-connected and densely populated areas.
“Different public health responses are appropriate for different local contexts.” — Dr. Amy Hurford
Recognizing the importance of building connections between the two modelling frameworks of disease mitigation or elimination, Drs. Hurford and Martignoni developed a theoretical framework based on research conducted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic relating to implemented health policies around the world.
Their manuscript published June 19 in the prestigious journal Royal Society Open Science details the modelling, including common errors and misconceptions that bias against recommending one strategy over another.
The publication in Royal Society Open Science not only highlights the innovative work being done at Memorial University, but also reinforces the critical role of evidence-based quantitative research in guiding public health policy, the researchers say.
Key findings
The findings emphasize that the effectiveness of COVID-19 strategies depends heavily on local factors.
Infection severity, health care capacity, the efficiency of case detection, the vaccination status of a population and the economic and societal costs of public health measures all have a fundamental role in determining which strategy should be implemented, and when.
The paper provides a comprehensive framework to guide policy-makers in deciding between elimination and mitigation, taking into account the economic and social costs associated with each approach.
“Elimination can be a valid public health strategy in some regions, and mitigation equally valid in others. Our work supports all regions by highlighting that different public health responses are appropriate for different local contexts,” explained Dr. Hurford.
Local application
For Drs. Hurford and Dr. Martignoni, Canada provided the perfect field of study for their research.
“In Canada, many public health decisions were made at the provincial level,” said Dr. Martignoni. “The COVID-19 pandemic in Canada was fairly unique in that there was a need for a modelling that could support both elimination and mitigation approaches.”
The researchers applied their framework to Canadian provinces and territories, highlighting the diverse responses across the country.
For instance, the Atlantic provinces and northern Canada successfully implemented elimination strategies early in the pandemic, benefiting from their geographical isolation and lower population density.
In contrast, provinces like Ontario and Quebec adopted mitigation strategies due to their large urban centers and high connectivity, making elimination impractical.
The study underscores the importance of flexible and adaptive public health policies that consider regional characteristics.
The authors also stress the need for ongoing reassessment of strategies as the virus evolves and new variants emerge.
Inspiration for future policy
This publication marks a significant contribution to the field of public health, providing valuable insights that can help shape future responses to pandemics or infectious diseases in general.
The framework developed by Drs. Martignoni and Hurford offers a valuable tool for policy-makers worldwide, enabling them to make informed decisions that balance public health needs with economic and social considerations.
“This work has inspired future modelling,” said Dr. Hurford. “It helped lead to the formation of a new working group and has inspired applications to other diseases and in other settings.”
Dr. Martignoni agrees.“We want other people to read our work and think: ‘That’s something I want to contribute to!’ We want them to get inspired, such that we can join forces to produce a body of work that will help us better determine the circumstances under which disease elimination or mitigation is best, to optimize future pandemic responses.”
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans can once again order COVID-19 tests, without being charged, sent straight to their homes.
The U.S. government reopened the program on Thursday, allowing any household to order up to four at-home COVID nasal swab kits through the website, covidtests.gov. The tests will begin shipping, via the United States Postal Service, as soon as next week.
The website has been reopened on the heels of a summer COVID-19 virus wave and heading into the fall and winter respiratory virus season, with health officials urging Americans to get an updated COVID-19 booster and their yearly flu shot.
“Before you visit with your family and friends this holiday season, take a quick test and help keep them safe from COVID-19,” U.S. Health and Human Services Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Dawn O’Connell said in a statement.
U.S. regulators approved an updated COVID-19 vaccine that is designed to combat the recent virus strains and, they hope, forthcoming winter ones, too. Vaccine uptake is waning, however. Most Americans have some immunity from prior infections or vaccinations, but under a quarter of U.S. adults took last fall’s COVID-19 shot.
Using the swab, people can detect current virus strains ahead of the fall and winter respiratory virus season and the holidays. Over-the-counter COVID-19 at-home tests typically cost around $11, as of last year. Insurers are no longer required to cover the cost of the tests.
Before using any existing at-home COVID-19 tests, you should check the expiration date. Many of the tests have been given an extended expiration from the date listed on the box. You can check on the Food and Drug Administration’s website to see if that’s the case for any of your remaining tests at home.
Since COVID-19 first began its spread in 2020, U.S. taxpayers have poured billions of dollars into developing and purchasing COVID-19 tests as well as vaccines. The Biden administration has given out 1.8 billion COVID-19 tests, including half distributed to households by mail. It’s unclear how many tests the government still has on hand.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans can once again order free COVID-19 tests sent straight to their homes.
The U.S. government reopened the program on Thursday, allowing any household to order up to four at-home COVID nasal swab kits through the website, covidtests.gov. The tests will begin shipping, via the United States Postal Service, as soon as next week.
The website has been reopened on the heels of a summer COVID-19 virus wave and heading into the fall and winter respiratory virus season, with health officials urging Americans to get an updated COVID-19 booster and their yearly flu shot.
U.S. regulators approved an updated COVID-19 vaccine that is designed to combat the recent virus strains and, they hope, forthcoming winter ones, too. Vaccine uptake is waning, however. Most Americans have some immunity from prior infections or vaccinations, but under a quarter of U.S. adults took last fall’s COVID-19 shot.
Using the swab, people can detect current virus strains ahead of the fall and winter respiratory virus season and the holidays. Over-the-counter COVID-19 at-home tests typically cost around $11, as of last year. Insurers are no longer required to cover the cost of the tests.
Since COVID-19 first began its spread in 2020, U.S. taxpayers have poured billions of dollars into developing and purchasing COVID-19 tests as well as vaccines. The Biden administration has given out 1.8 billion COVID-19 tests, including half distributed to households by mail. It’s unclear how many tests the government still has on hand.
TORONTO – A coalition of disability rights groups says it is launching a Charter challenge against a part of Canada’s law on medical assistance in dying.
The group, which also includes two individual plaintiffs, argues that what’s known as track two of the MAID law has resulted in premature deaths.
Under the law, patients whose natural deaths are not reasonably foreseeable but whose condition leads to intolerable suffering can apply for a track-two assisted death.
The coalition says track two of the MAID law has had a direct effect on the lives of people with disabilities and argues medically assisted death should only be available to those whose natural death is reasonably foreseeable.
The executive vice-president of Inclusion Canada – which is part of the coalition – says there has been an alarming trend where people with disabilities are seeking assisted death due to social deprivation, poverty and a lack of essential supports.
Krista Carr says those individuals should instead be supported in order to live better lives.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.
