Hot on the heels of the Conservatives’ stunning byelection victory in the riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, new seat projection data from Nanos Research show ridings considered previously safe for the Liberals are increasingly up for grabs.
On the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line, Nanos Research chair Nik Nanos said the latest numbers point to “difficult times if you’re a Liberal.”
“What we’re seeing is the Liberal fortress Toronto basically under siege,” Nanos said. “So maybe Toronto—St. Paul’s is the canary in the coal mine.”
On Monday, Conservative Don Stewart defied the odds to win the closely watched Toronto-area byelection, setting off political shockwaves by claiming victory in a longtime Liberal stronghold riding.
The byelection result, Nanos said, could in retrospect be considered “a referendum on the government and on Justin Trudeau.”
The loss for the Liberals also reinvigorated rumours party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could step down before the next general election, currently slated for October 2025.
“We can’t project a byelection onto the general election,” Nanos warned, but added it’s noteworthy how much better the Conservatives did in Toronto—St. Paul’s compared to the last general election, and likewise how poorly the Liberals did compared to three years ago, which “speaks to where the momentum is.”
“But I think the Conservatives and (leader) Pierre Poilievre want to run against Justin Trudeau,” he also said. “They basically, by winning, created conditions that put pressure on Trudeau to step down or to be pushed out. And that kind of resets everything.”
Nanos said a Trudeau resignation would change the “political calculus” for all parties, but especially the Conservatives, who have largely framed their message around Poilievre against Trudeau.
Regional projections
In addition to the surprise win in Toronto—St. Paul’s, Nanos said, the new data shows the Conservatives “being much more competitive in Toronto.”
Latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
In comparing Nanos’s latest seat projections to the results of the 2021 general election, Ontario’s projections overall are “pretty blue,” despite “spots of red.”
The Conservatives are also challenging “very strongly in a number of Ottawa ridings outside the immediate downtown, which could prove to be races to watch whenever Canadians head to the polls.
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Nanos said the Liberals could also be in store for a setback in Atlantic Canada, with both Cape Breton and Halifax in play.
Regardless, the Conservatives are likely to pick up “a number of” seats out east.
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in Atlantic Canada are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
The Prairies continue to be a lock for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is “one of the most complex kinds of environments,” because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, said Nanos.
The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too close to call, according to Nanos’ latest seat projections.
“They’re really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,” Nanos said, adding B.C. can vary significantly from region to region within the province.
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in the Vancouver area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
“But zoom into Vancouver … you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal,” he also said.
“Look how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that’s happening right now.”
Nanos said several ridings that could see three-way splits are “really, really helping the Conservatives.”
More broadly, voter intention across the country continues to show the Conservatives well ahead of the other parties, a trend Nanos said has been consistent for nearly a year.
Ballot tracking
Nanos Research’s latest tracking shows the Conservatives at 41 per cent, with the Liberals at 27 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent and the Greens at four per cent.
(Nanos Research)
“It’ll be interesting to see whether, through the summer, (the Conservatives) maintain that double-digit advantage,” Nanos said.
The pollster said while the Conservatives have stayed safely above 40 per cent for months, any change in the margin of their lead has been due to fluctuations with the Liberals and NDP.
“Think of Justin Trudeau as preferred prime minister. He’s 12 points back,” Nanos also said. “There’s no political coattails right now for the Liberals, either for their brand or for their party leader right now.”
NDP hits back with new ad
As more supposed Liberal strongholds potentially come up for grabs, the party’s confidence-and-supply-agreement partner, the NDP, has taken out its largest pre-election ad buy since 2015.
A new 30-second ad featuring Singh sets up what the party is calling the “change the rules tour,” and it takes aim at both the Conservatives and the Liberals.
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According to NDP national director Anne McGrath, the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection made it clear the next general election will “definitely” be a change election, and consequently the party will “absolutely” be devoting more resources to historically red ridings.
“Seats that might not have been up for grabs before are up for grabs,” McGrath said in an interview with CTV News.
“I think that it’s very obvious that what everybody thought was a stronghold, one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, was not a safe seat,” she also said. “So that means that there are no safe seats.”
The Liberals’ loss has left many political watchers wondering whether the NDP will soon pull out of its confidence-and-supply pact, and Nanos said the time is coming for the party to make a decision on that front.
When asked, McGrath wouldn’t say whether the NDP is currently considering scrapping the deal, but did say the party is debt-free for the first time in nearly a decade, and building up a war chest to throw as many resources as possible at the next general election, whenever that may be.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Methodology
The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
Latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in Atlantic Canada are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in the Vancouver area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
(Nanos Research)
