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The U.S. Real Estate Market in Charts

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Back in 2020 I wrote a quick rundown of the U.S. real estate market in charts to show how the pandemic was impacting the housing market.

It’s been a few years so it’s time to update those charts.

The existing home months’ supply measures the number of months it would take to sell all of the houses on the market at the current pace of sales:

It’s well off the lows of late-2021/early-2022 and trending higher. This is good news for a healthier housing market.

We saw a nice little boom in the construction of new homes when the pandemic created crazy demand for housing.

It was fun while it lasted but higher mortgage rates quickly put an end to that trend. As you can see the number of building permits and housing starts has declined as quickly as it rose:

The increase in mortgage rates is a sight to behold on a chart:

It’s hard to believe there was a housing bubble in the first decade of this century with mortgage rates above 6%. The big difference is rates were falling from higher levels back then while today generationally low mortgage rates are fresh in everyone’s memory.

That mini-boom in new construction, coupled with rate buydowns from homebuilders, has helped make up for falling existing home inventory:

Unfortunately, the housing starts data rolling over means this isn’t likely to last so we need the existing housing market to pick up the slack.

Housing prices continue to take out new highs:

It turns out owning a home was likely your best bet for hedging against inflation during this cycle:

Where housing goes from here is hard to say.

If mortgage rates stay elevated, it would make sense for inventory to continue building and price growth to slow.

If mortgage rates fall enough, we could see a flood of demand from buyers and sellers who have been sidelined but it might depend on why rates fall.

Recessions don’t always crush the housing market as you’d expect:

It’s not a foregone conclusion prices would get killed during the next economic contraction.

Higher mortgage rates have slowed the craziness of the pandemic housing market. But this is also setting us up for more problems down the road since it’s slowing new construction from homebuilders.

Lower mortgage rates would provide relief to borrowers and incentivize more building but it could also lead to increased demand in an already supply-constrained market.

We won’t be in this situation forever because something unexpected always happens eventually, but for now, we’re in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t housing market.

 

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Housing starts up in six largest cities but construction still not closing supply gap

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The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says construction of new homes in Canada’s six largest cities rose four per cent year-over-year during the first half of 2024, but housing starts were still not enough to meet growing demand.

The agency says growth in housing starts was driven by significant gains in Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal.

A total of 68,639 units began construction, the second strongest figure since 1990, however the rate of housing starts per capita meant activity was around the historical average and not enough “to reduce the existing supply gap and improve affordability for Canadians.”

The report says new home construction trends varied significantly across the markets studied, as Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa saw declines ranging from 10 to 20 per cent from the same period last year.

Apartment starts in the six regions increased slightly, driven by construction of new units for rent, as nearly half of the apartments started in the first half of 2024 were purpose-built rentals.

But condominium apartment starts fell in the first six months of the year in most cities, a trend which the agency predicts will continue amid soft demand as developers struggle to reach minimum pre-construction sales required.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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