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The U.S. Real Estate Market in Charts

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Back in 2020 I wrote a quick rundown of the U.S. real estate market in charts to show how the pandemic was impacting the housing market.

It’s been a few years so it’s time to update those charts.

The existing home months’ supply measures the number of months it would take to sell all of the houses on the market at the current pace of sales:

It’s well off the lows of late-2021/early-2022 and trending higher. This is good news for a healthier housing market.

We saw a nice little boom in the construction of new homes when the pandemic created crazy demand for housing.

It was fun while it lasted but higher mortgage rates quickly put an end to that trend. As you can see the number of building permits and housing starts has declined as quickly as it rose:

The increase in mortgage rates is a sight to behold on a chart:

It’s hard to believe there was a housing bubble in the first decade of this century with mortgage rates above 6%. The big difference is rates were falling from higher levels back then while today generationally low mortgage rates are fresh in everyone’s memory.

That mini-boom in new construction, coupled with rate buydowns from homebuilders, has helped make up for falling existing home inventory:

Unfortunately, the housing starts data rolling over means this isn’t likely to last so we need the existing housing market to pick up the slack.

Housing prices continue to take out new highs:

It turns out owning a home was likely your best bet for hedging against inflation during this cycle:

Where housing goes from here is hard to say.

If mortgage rates stay elevated, it would make sense for inventory to continue building and price growth to slow.

If mortgage rates fall enough, we could see a flood of demand from buyers and sellers who have been sidelined but it might depend on why rates fall.

Recessions don’t always crush the housing market as you’d expect:

It’s not a foregone conclusion prices would get killed during the next economic contraction.

Higher mortgage rates have slowed the craziness of the pandemic housing market. But this is also setting us up for more problems down the road since it’s slowing new construction from homebuilders.

Lower mortgage rates would provide relief to borrowers and incentivize more building but it could also lead to increased demand in an already supply-constrained market.

We won’t be in this situation forever because something unexpected always happens eventually, but for now, we’re in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t housing market.

 

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Unlock Reliable U.S. Real Estate Opportunities with Oak Street Partners

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OAK STREET PARTNERS UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES  FOR CANADIAN INVESTORS IN THE U.S. RENTAL HOUSING MARKET

Oak Street Partners is leading the way in cash-flow-focused U.S. affordable housing investments

TORONTO, ON | NOVEMBER 18, 2024 – With the Canadian real estate market facing challenges and declining opportunities for investors, Oak Street Partners, a Toronto-based private real estate investment firm, is offering a new avenue for Canadian investors to diversify into the U.S. rental housing market. Oak Street Partners enables investors to passively invest in U.S. affordable housing, providing them with stable, cash-flow-focused returns while helping meet the growing demand for quality, affordable housing in the United States.

“Market conditions in Canada have made it more difficult for investors to find reliable, income-generating opportunities,” says Parker Christie, Founder & CEO of Oak Street Partners. “By turning to the U.S. affordable housing market, we’ve been able to create consistent, cash-flowing investments that benefit both our investors and local communities.”

Building on this approach, Oak Street Partners facilitates investment by strategically acquiring and managing properties in the U.S., particularly in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Investors provide capital, while Oak Street handles all aspects of property ownership and management. Similar to a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but privately structured, Oak Street ensures investors receive stable, cash-flow-driven returns without the need for direct involvement.
A key part of Oak Street’s approach is leveraging the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program, America’s largest federal rental subsidy program that pays private landlords rent on behalf of low-income tenants. This guarantees a reliable, high cash flow income stream, even when real estate markets are challenged with high interest rate environments. By leveraging this program, Oak Street is not only able to provide consistent returns to its investors, but it also enhances lower-income communities, creating sustainable, quality homes for residents.

“It’s a win-win situation,” explains Trumbull Fisher, Director of Oak Street Partners. “Tenants are able to secure and enjoy quality, affordable housing, while investors benefit from reliable, government-backed rental payments that ensure steady cash flow.”

By investing in these properties, Oak Street is able to support the demand for affordable housing, while also contributing to the broader social good by addressing housing shortages and improving community infrastructure. This dual focus on financial return and social impact is what makes Oak Street’s approach stand out in today’s real estate investment landscape.

In its first year of operation, Oak Street has acquired over 100 units in Ohio. With $10 million in assets under management, the company has been able to offer its investors a 10 per cent cash dividend, which was distributed nine months into its operation. This is a rare milestone for companies in their first year, as many real estate investment firms operate at a loss in their early stages.

“As we look to the future, our goal is to expand Oak Street’s portfolio in high-demand areas across the Midwest and Southeast,” adds Christie. “Our focus will remain on sourcing properties that deliver strong, stable returns while positively impacting local communities.”

For more information on Oak Street Partners visit oakstreetgp.com/.

ABOUT OAK STREET PARTNERS

Oak Street Partners is a real estate investment firm focused on creating diversified and stable opportunities for investors in the U.S. rental housing market. We offer a unique pathway for investors to build and expand their portfolios by investing in affordable housing opportunities, improving the quality of life for tenants while delivering consistent returns for investors.

Website: https://oakstreetgp.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/oak-street-partners-gp

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oakstreetgp/

Email: info@oakstreetgp.com  n

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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