July 1st was a crazy day, and Brennan, Mike, and Ian did an amazing job with the non-stop coverage. I had a bunch of family time I was busy with, on top of helping my brother moving. The guys were nice enough to save me the Nashville moves for when I had some time though, so that’s the one write up I did on the day.
You can find those thoughts here, but one thing it didn’t cover was the subsequent re-signing of Victor Hedman in Tampa. A lot of people are saying they gave the exact $8 million to Hedman instead of Steven Stamkos, and they’re drawing conclusions from that. In reality though, they took an extra million and gave it to Jake Guentzel this year. Hedman’s new deal doesn’t kick in until next year, so him and Stamkos were not fighting for money from the same pie. Hedman’s $8 million is actually going to be a lower cap percentage than he’s at this year, so he’s just keeping his own slice of the pie. It was an either-or with Stammer or Guentzel, and Hedman has nothing to do with it.
Stamkos makes his return to Tampa as a Predator on Oct 28th. Pencil him down for two goals and an assist.
I know a lot of people don’t like plus-minus as a stat much anymore, but it can be telling over the sample size of a season when used relative to teammates. Stamkos was worst on the team with a minus-21 mark, much worse than most of his frequent line-mates. The Bolts also got rid of Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeannot, Calvin De Haan, Alex Barre-Boulet, Tyler Motte, Matt Dumba, who mark seven of the bottom ten on the team in the stat. They are tightening up as an insulation measure for the current core.
Looking at the rest of the free agent signings from the first two days of free agency, there were over 230 contracts signed in total if you include the noteworthy re-signings on June 30th as well, so there’s a lot to sift through.
I was happy to see that I called the landing spot for Teuvo Teravainen.
31) Teuvo Teravainen – LW (UFA – $3.97M)
A few slower years for TT are mainly the result of him not getting the same PP deployment as his career-high 70+ point years. For a team that could use some PP help, he might be just the right guy at a reasonable price. Maybe a CHI return?
I think the Blackhawks overpaid him a bit, but then again who haven’t they overpaid over the last two years – that seems to be the whole idea. I do think he will be a great fit with Bedard, especially on the power play. Unfortunately for Lukas Reichel, he likely fills the exact role that Reichel would like to grow into. Three years isn’t forever, but it’s probably a year or two longer than Reichel owners would really like to see.
Here are my top- and bottom-five signings from the past few days.
The most recent signing is a great one in my eyes because it’s something the Senators had to do on a shorter-term deal – they already have too much term up the middle locked up in uncertainty with Josh Norris – and they managed to keep the AAV lower than expected. I was wondering whether Pinto might cost as much as five million, so to have him at under $4 million is a win that Ottawa needs, especially after giving away Mathieu Joseph and Jakob Chychrun.
Not even the biggest name signed by Nashville, but being a year younger than Stamkos while also being a recent 40-goal scorer. Usually that kind of production would cost a lot more, and with Marchy’s style of play, he should be able to keep up his production for at least a few years. The last year on the contract might be a burden, but if only one year out of five is a miss in free agency, and the other four are bargains, that’s worthwhile in free agency.
The Islanders have their top-line pretty much set at this point, but their middle-six gets a big boost with Duclair who finished last year with 15 points in 17 games with Tampa Bay. It was a whole lot better than the 27 points in 56 games with San Jose. He will finish somewhere between those two paces with the Isles. If it’s close to the Tampa pace then it’s absolute robbery, and worst case it comes out as a fair deal.
This just seems like such a fun fit, with so little risk. Skinner is one year removed from an 82-point season, and now gets to play a full season alongside either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. He only had 46 points in 74 games last season, but if that’s an absolute floor while playing middle-six minutes with Buffalo, then top-six with Edmonton has to be at least 60 points, with upside for 90 if he can click on the power play.
This isn’t a free-agent signing so it’s maybe cheating a little, but the Canadiens extending Slafkovsky for less than they’re paying Cole Caufield, covering Slaf’s entire prime as a player who looks to be growing his game exponentially is a scary consideration. He’s going to be worth that money this year while he is still playing out his entry level deal, and then next year when the cap rises again, Slaf is going to be underpaid starting game one of that new deal. Jack Hughes has my vote for best contract in the NHL right now, but this might become number two in very short order.
Bottom-five:
I’m not going to dwell on these as long and sow as much negativity, but the general thinking is that the downside on these deals massively out-weights the upside.
Locking up a 24-year-old defenceman who has paced for over 40-points the last two years while playing top-pairing minutes last season would be tough to mess up, but by putting aa higher cap hit on this deal with shorter term, Utah doesn’t win here regardless of how Durzi produces.
The Sabres are currently $20 million under the cap, and are paying Zucker and his 32 points last year $5 million. Add that to the $1.4 million from Jeff Skinner‘s buyout that counts against the cap, and two-thirds of Skinner’s salary is being pair for probably less than two-thirds of Skinner’s production. It makes the whole buyout make zero sense when they could have just waiting until next summer and had it hurt a lot less.
From a fantasy and general free agent point of view, I have aa very tough time giving non-elite players term past four or five years, and overpaying for career seasons. That’s what this deal feels like, and while Skjei might be good, he’s not elite. I would be surprised to get more than one season of 40+ points out of him in Nashville.
For a goalie who turns 37 on Friday, two years even feels like aa lot, especially when it seems like the workload really wore on Talbot as last season progressed. His overall numbers look good, but take away his first quarter of the season and he’s a .500 goalie with a 2.70 GAA and a .907 save percentage. Pretty average, and not what an average team needs in order to make a jump in the standings.
This feels like the forward version of Skjei, except Stephenson’s best seasons came from playing alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, which was also not even last year. He’s a year removed from that now, and has shown he is probably just a 50-point centre without them. Seattle does not have anyone of their caliber (though I do have tons of time for Matty Beniers and Jared McCann). Hopefully he clicks here, because if not this one could get ugly fast.
Oh, and Chris Tanev‘s deal is also terrible, but the Leafs will find some way to turn it into a good thing because of the LTIR space they can play with, so it doesn’t really matter.
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With the top and bottom list done, we can take a peak at who else is left. Vladimir Tarasenko is definitely the most noteworthy name still unsigned, but there are a few other players that could be under-the radar acquisitions at a reasonable price now. Jack Roslovic, Daniel Sprong, Max Pacioretty, and Tyson Barrie seem to round out the rest of the names that could have fantasy relevance in standard leagues if they find the right fit. We’ll have some thoughts for you once these guys actually put a pen to paper.
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The NHL released their schedule for the upcoming season, which runs from Friday October 4th in Prague, to Thursday April 17th, where interestingly only Eastern Conference teams are playing. This likely sets up the Western Conference to begin the first round of the playoffs on Saturday April 19th with two or three matchups.
I haven’t had a chance to really dive into and analyze the schedule, but will have some more research into it once I have it transferred from the Frozentools schedule planner (which is already updated) to my own spreadsheet, where I can analyze it from a few different angles, especially with Fantasy H2H leagues in mind.
Andrew Santillo also does an excellent breakdown of the schedule including back to backs, off nights, and more for the Fantasy guide. You can pre-order that here.
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I remember seeing a tweet back in the spring about Nikita Gusev possibly considering another NHL attempt, and didn’t think much of it at the time. Now, however…
The Devils have apparently clarified that he is “just in town training” but sometimes coincidences have a little bit more to them. Regardless of whether it’s with the Devils or another NHL squad, there’s a significant chance that we see NHL games from Gusev again this season.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
EDMONTON – The Edmonton Oilers signed defenceman Travis Dermott to a professional tryout on Friday.
Dermott, a 27-year-old from Newmarket, Ont., produced two goals, five assists and 26 penalty minutes in 50 games with the Arizona Coyotes last season.
The six-foot, 202-pound blueliner has also played for the Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Toronto drafted him in the second round, 34th overall, of the 2015 NHL draft.
Over seven NHL seasons, Dermott has 16 goals and 46 assists in 329 games while averaging 16:03 in ice time.
Before the NHL, Dermott played two seasons with Oilers captain Connor McDavid for the Ontario Hockey League’s Erie Otters. The team was coached by current Edmonton head coach Kris Knoblauch.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
NEWPORT, R.I. (AP) — Maria Sharapova, a five-time Grand Slam singles champion, led the International Tennis Hall of Fame’s fan vote her first year on the ballot — an important part to possible selection to the hall’s next class.
The organization released the voting results on Friday. American doubles team Bob and Mike Bryan finished second with Canada’s Daniel Nestor third.
The Hall of Fame said tens of thousands of fans from 120 countries cast ballots. Fan voting is one of two steps in the hall’s selection process. The second is an official group of journalists, historians, and Hall of Famers from the sport who vote on the ballot for the hall’s class of 2025.
“I am incredibly grateful to the fans all around the world who supported me during the International Tennis Hall of Fame’s fan votes,” Sharapova said in a statement. “It is a tremendous honor to be considered for the Hall of Fame, and having the fans’ support makes it all the more special.”
Sharapova became the first Russian woman to reach No. 1 in the world. She won Wimbledon in 2004, the U.S. Open in 2006 and the Australian Open in 2008. She also won the French Open twice, in 2012 and 2014.
Sharapova was also part of Russia’s championship Fed Cup team in 2008 and won a silver medal at the London Olympics in 2012.
To make the hall, candidates must receive 75% or higher on combined results of the official voting group and additional percentage from the fan vote. Sharapova will have an additional three percentage points from winning the fan vote.
The Bryans, who won 16 Grand Slam doubles titles, will have two additional percentage points and Nestor, who won eight Grand Slam doubles titles, will get one extra percentage point.
The hall’s next class will be announced late next month.
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — The driver charged with killing NHL hockey player Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew as they bicycled on a rural road had a blood-alcohol level of .087, above the .08 legal limit in New Jersey, a prosecutor said Friday.
Gaudreau, 31, and brother Matthew, 29, were killed in Carneys Point, New Jersey, on Aug. 29, the evening before they were set to serve as groomsmen at their sister Katie’s wedding.
The driver, 43-year-old Sean M. Higgins of nearby Woodstown, New Jersey, is charged with two counts of death by auto, along with reckless driving, possession of an open container and consuming alcohol in a motor vehicle. At a virtual court hearing Friday, a judge ordered that he be held for trial after prosecutors described a history of alleged road rage and aggressive driving.
“’You were probably driving like a nut like I always tell you you do. And you don’t listen to me, instead you just yell at me,’” his wife told Higgins when he called her from jail after his arrest, according to First Assistant Prosecutor Jonathan Flynn of Salem County.
The defense described Higgins as a married father and law-abiding citizen before the crash.
“He’s an empathetic individual and he’s a loving father of two daughters,” said defense lawyer Matthew Portella. “He’s a good person and he made a horrible decision that night.”
Higgins told police he had five or six beers that day and admitted to consuming alcohol while driving, according to the criminal complaint. He also failed a field sobriety test, the complaint said. A prosecutor on Friday said he had been drinking at home after finishing a work call at about 3 p.m., and having an upsetting conversation with his mother about a family matter.
He then had a two-hour phone call with a friend while he drove around in his Jeep with an open container, Flynn said. He had been driving aggressively behind a sedan going just above the 50 mph speed limit, sometimes tailgating, the female driver told police.
When she and the vehicle ahead of her slowed down and veered left to go around the cyclists, Higgins sped up and veered right, striking the Gaudreas, the two other drivers told police.
“He indicated he didn’t even see them,” said Superior Court Judge Michael J. Silvanio, who said Higgins’ admitted “impatience” caused two deaths.
Higgins faces up to 20 years, a sentence that the judge said made him a flight risk.
Higgins has a master’s degree, works in finance for an addiction treatment company, and served in combat in Iraq, his lawyers said. However, his wife said he had been drinking regularly since working from home, Flynn said.
Johnny Gaudreau, known as “Johnny Hockey,” played 10 full seasons in the league and was set to enter his third with the Columbus Blue Jackets after signing a seven-year, $68 million deal in 2022. He played his first eight seasons with the Calgary Flames, a tenure that included becoming one of the sport’s top players and a fan favorite across North America.
Widows Meredith and Madeline Gaudreau described their husbands as attached at the hip throughout their lives. Both women are expecting, and both gave moving eulogies at the double funeral on Monday.
