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Stock markets rise again — here's what to watch now – CNBC

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Investors stay calm 

Ronald Kruszewski, CEO of Stifel, says the Fed has done well in injecting liquidity into the market. 

“This decline in the market happened so fast and so suddenly and was so precipitous that many clients now are sitting there and looking at it, as they should, and saying, “Is it now down 20% from here or is the more likely upside?” And so, I think clients have been surprisingly calm. Maybe they have to be. I’m supposedly an expert, and I watched my own portfolio drop precipitously, saying “Why didn’t I sell?” But of course, I know better, and our clients know better. So, I think that, that’s been, you know, surprisingly calm. In terms of money markets and all that, look, the Fed has done a remarkable job of making sure there’s liquidity in the system. And when you look at what the Fed has done you can go back to the old adage: Don’t fight the Fed.”

A ‘rip-roaring economy’ 

Alli McCartney, managing director at UBS Private Wealth Management, says normalcy will return to the market eventually. 

“Look, we came from a rip-roaring economy, lowest unemployment we’ve ever seen. Strong consumers, strong consumer balance sheets — we’re going to get there again, whether it’s a ‘V’ shape, a ‘W’ shape, a ‘U’ shape. When you are investing for long-term investors, that’s not really the point; trading in and out. We are waiting for [volatility] to come down. … We just cannot sustain these levels, just like we cannot sustain the panic of going to the food store and [people] hijacking toilet paper. … When we get rallies, taking a little risk off the table for those clients who either need additional liquidity or would like to buy some time. We will redeploy that and when we do, it will be largely into U.S. equities, whether we do that through the options market, ETFs or active management, which I think is going to be a new trend you will see coming forward.”

Market needs to follow through

Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, is starting to see signs of a bottom. 

“You need to see multiple good days of performance. … In the last couple weeks we’ve had days of very good bounces but then there’s been no follow through. So, what we really wanted to see is a follow-through day like today coming on the heels. That’s a good sign. There’s one thing that I would point out that is occurring, which is, there is a leadership rotation occurring over the last five years, just buying low [volatile] stocks has worked really well. Since early March, as the market has dropped, that hasn’t outperformed. What is starting to outperform is actually more the cyclical stocks. That is a good sign of a bottom, when you get a leadership rotation. But I really think you need to see a couple good days to think we’ve put in a bottom here in the market on Monday. If in fact, we could reopen the economy then as it pertains to the market, the low is in. I mean, I always remind people that the worst time to invest is when things are great and they go to less great and the best time to invest is when things go from horrible to less horrible.”

Don’t buy the dips 

Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist of Mariner Wealth Investors, says it is still too early to buy in on all the dips.

“While the technicals within stock land have looked pretty good the past couple days it’s been refreshing to see high beta outperform low beta, and to see small caps do very well. And we do see sectors that we think are particularly attractive, yet I think it’s too early to just say, ‘Hey, buy on the dips, this is all done, it’s nothing but up from here.’ After we’ve had this euphoria from the policy announcement that seems to be in play, we’re still going to meet this second quarter rough patch in the economy. And it’s one thing to see it coming, it’s another thing to actually read it in the papers every day. And then I think the coronavirus news, are we really bending the curve? That will be very important in the coming weeks here, so we’re upgrading, we’re holding our ground, but we’re not aggressive buyers.”

Market value still out there 

Jason Brady, CEO of Thornburg Investment Management, says there is still value to be found despite market uncertainties.

“It’s too early to call it as a ‘Hey, it’s an all-clear signal.’ Look, I actually think at this point there are lots of opportunities out there. You know, I think we’re seeing a margin of safety in certain prices that gives you some faith that you’re going to get payback over a long period of time. … I’m not an epidemiologist. I keep looking at the news just like everybody else. I don’t think you’re going to get one signal that’s all clear. It’s not — don’t try to pick the bottom. I’ve bought the bottom before, but I’ve never just bought the bottom. So, just try to find value. There is value out there for sure.”

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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