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When will Canada pass the peak of COVID-19? Even the experts don't know – CTV News

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TORONTO —
As millions of Canadians spend their days at home, avoiding getting too close to anyone outside their households, one question rises above all: When will this be over?

Ashleigh Tuite is about as well-positioned as anyone to know the answer to that question. She’s an expert in developing mathematical models to forecast the spread of infectious diseases. Not only that, she’s part of a team at the University of Toronto that has been given federal money to specifically model the COVID-19 pandemic.

But when it comes to what may happen next in Canada, Tuite has no special insight.

“‘I don’t know’ is the honest answer,” she told CTVNews.ca Thursday via telephone.

“It’s a little bit too early, at least here and with the data we have, to be able to do the forecasting work that I think there’s a huge appetite for.”

Even knowing exactly how far Canada is into its COVID-19 outbreak is difficult. The number of cases in Canada rose by 42 per cent on Monday, 34 per cent on Tuesday and 22 per cent on Wednesday — but there are so many factors at play that it is impossible to reach any useful conclusions on whether the country is flattening its curve.

Testing activity is ramping up, but not at the same rate in every province, and not every part of the country is prioritizing the same cases for testing. There’s also inequity in processing backlogs — and that there are backlogs at all means today’s new cases involve people who first contracted the virus several days ago.

It takes even longer for the effects of closures, movement restrictions and other government actions to show up in the data. Because it is generally believed that the virus has an incubation period of up to two weeks, experts say it is only safe to assume that one day’s case number represents the results of actions taken 14 or more days earlier.

All of that results in a constant game of catch-up for doctors looking to treat patients, health authorities looking to implement the necessary measures to keep COVID-19 patients from flooding into hospital beds, and anyone looking to simply keep up with what’s happening.

“We don’t exactly know where we are on the epidemic curve, and we don’t exactly know where we were when we started having our strong public health response,” Tuite said.

To try to close that gap, some researchers look at the progression of the virus in other countries and try to adjust those experiences for the Canadian context. One team from York University in Toronto attempted to project the spread of COVID-19 in Canada based on the example of Italy, where more than 8,000 deaths have been recorded.

NOT THE ‘NEXT ITALY’

Italy is currently one of the world’s grimmest examples of the toll COVID-19 can take. Nearly one in 10 of Italy’s 80,000 known cases are health workers, and it is believed the real number of the infected is significantly higher, as the country has prioritized testing only those most likely to have the virus.

The York researchers found that Canada’s COVID-19 curve up to March 22 appeared similar to Italy’s about three weeks earlier. At that point, Italy was starting a mass quarantine of part of the country, while life still continued relatively normally in other regions for a few days. The full lockdown of the country was still a week away.

Because Canada had already cracked down on public gatherings before March 22, the researchers concluded that “Canada will not become the ‘next Italy,'” but warned of a worst-case scenario in which there would be 15,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada by March 31.

Even that scenario no longer appears to be a significant risk, postdoctoral fellow Dr. Nicola Luigi Bragazzi told CTVNews.ca on Thursday, because of the stricter measures Canada has taken since March 22, including requiring anyone entering the country to quarantine for 14 days.

“These measures are extremely useful and helpful,” he said via telephone.

Other scenarios modelled by the York team, involving various forms of government action, project caseloads far below 15,000 by March 31.

But when it comes to one of the country’s main goals right now — keeping the outbreak from overwhelming the health-care system — does the total number of cases even matter?

Tuite doesn’t think so. She says the number of deaths is a better indicator, albeit one with its own problems. COVID-19 deaths typically occur three to four weeks after infection, meaning projections based on deaths have a lag time even longer than what it takes for movement restrictions to be reflected in the data.

What she and many other researchers would like to see is data from each province on COVID-19-related hospitalizations — something most provinces are not yet routinely including in their updates. That would allow for a greater focus on only the most severe cases of the disease, while also making it easier to forecast how demand for hospital beds will change over time.

“If we’re able to monitor that, that will give us a very good sense of where we are in the epidemic,” Tuite said.

COMBATING COMPLACENCY

The models, projections and experts may have a hard time saying exactly what will happen with any confidence, but they all agree on one thing: the numbers will continue to rise for weeks.

Consistent large increases would be an obvious problem, because the health system would not be able to manage them for long. Consistent small increases could present a challenge of their own, as Canadians may take them as a sign that the measures enacted by the government were an overreaction.

This is another reason why Tuite wants to see more detailed communication from governments about how cases are being managed — because that information can then be used to help inform the public about the reality of the situation.

“If you’re asking people to buy into this, I think there needs to be a way to communicate that what we’re doing is having an impact,” she said.

Tuite pointed to the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 situation in New York City as an example of what can happen when public buy-in comes too late, suggesting that Canada could be in “a very different place” had government action and recommendations for physical distancing come a week or two later.

Bragazzi, too, cautioned that Canadians should not get complacent, noting that the effects of actions taken today will not be reflected in statistics for weeks. He suggested that Canada look to China, South Korea and Italy as examples of three approaches to fighting the virus with different outcomes.

“The critical time to act is now. Canada can benefit from and capitalize on the lessons of other countries,” he said.

There are signs that the government is trying to prepare Canadians for a longer life under not-quite-lockdown than they may have expected when the measures were first announced.

Asked at a press conference Wednesday about how long it might take the country to start returning to normal, Dr. Howard Njoo, the country’s deputy chief public health officer, responded that “if you look at the science and the evidence … it’s not days and weeks, but certainly months that this pandemic will endure.”

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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