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Oil Tumbles Towards $20 As Glut Grows – OilPrice.com

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Oil Tumbles Towards $20 As Glut Grows | OilPrice.com

Josh Owens

Josh Owens is the Content Director at Oilprice.com. An International Relations and Politics graduate from the University of Edinburgh, Josh specialized in Middle East and…

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Oil Glut

The brief rebound in oil prices was never going to last in the current environment, and as the global crude glut nears historic highs, prices are heading towards $20

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Friday, March 27th, 2020

Markets rallied this week as the U.S. Congress appears poised to pass a $2 trillion stimulus plan. Jobless claims in the U.S. topped 3 million, with economists seeing unemployment nearing Great Depression levels in the coming months. Meanwhile, despite the rally for equities, oil prices did not hold up, with WTI back down close to $20 per barrel as the historic glut continues to worsen.  

SPR plan scrapped. The U.S. Department of Energy withdrew its plan to buy 77 million barrels of oil for the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) after funding for the plan was removed from the $2 trillion stimulus plan. 

Investors pressure majors to cut dividends. The top five oil majors added $25 billion in debt last year, while hiking dividends. Now, on the ropes with oil in the mid-$20s, debt will accumulate much faster. More investors are calling for a cut to dividends. “Long term, it is appropriate to cut the dividend. We are not in favor of raising debt to support the dividend,” Jeffrey Germain, a director at Brandes Investment Partners, told Reuters.

Half Latin American oil uneconomic. “Latin America’s flowing production is over 7 million barrels per day. At current prices, we estimate that half is non-economic, taking into account all costs, including transportation and taxes,” Ruaraidh Montgomery from oil research firm Welligence, told Reuters Related: Cesium – The Most Important Metal You’ve Never Heard Of

European gas inventories at record high. As of March 1, storage for gas in Europe was 60 percent full, the highest ever recorded at the start of March. 

Occidental cuts worker pay. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) cut salaries for its U.S. workers by 30 percent. 

Dakota Access loses court case. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe won a major victory in federal court this week, with a judge ordering a full environmental impact statement for the Dakota Access pipeline. The project owned by Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ET) has already been operational for three years. The decision could potentially lead to the shutdown of the pipeline. 
Pompeo pressures MbS on oil price war. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by phone this week, asking for the Saudis to pull back from the price war. Pompeo urged Riyadh to “rise to the occasion and reassure” energy markets at a time of economic uncertainty.

Senators accuse Saudi Arabia of economic warfare. A group of Republican senators sent Sec. of State Mike Pompeo a letter, accusing Saudi Arabia of economic warfare because of Riyadh’s decision to increase oil production. The letter said the U.S. could explore antitrust authority as well as revisit support for the war in Yemen, a clear threat to Saudi Arabia. 

Saudi Arabia struggling to find buyers. Saudi Arabia is struggling to find buyers for extra oil as demand collapses. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), China’s Unipec, Finland’s Neste, some Indian refiners and other U.S. refiners are taking less crude from Saudi Arabia, according to Reuters. Taken together, the inability to find buyers reduces the odds of Saudi Arabia ramping up production aggressively to over 12 mb/d.

Largest shut in of production in 35 years. In certain areas oil prices is trading in single digits. Bloomberg notes that Wyoming Sweet oil was trading at $1.75 per barrel this week, forcing some small producers to shut in. That could happen in many places around the world. “We need to cut crude supply by 10 million barrels a day pretty quickly,” Russel Hardy, the head of top independent oil trader Vitol Group, told Bloomberg. “Oil prices will need to go lower, to bring the prices to a level that triggers a response.” Related: What Happens If U.S. Shale Goes Bust?

20 mb/d surplus. New estimates from a series of oil market analysts put the drop in demand from the pandemic at about 20 mb/d, a figure that is dramatically larger than estimates from as recently as a week ago. Goldman put it at 18.7 mb/d. It is the largest decline in history by far, and one so large that a return of OPEC+ cuts would not address. 

China struggles to restart amid global recession. The worst of China’s pandemic is over, but the restart of factories in China is running into trouble as the rest of the world goes into lockdown and cancels purchases of a variety of Chinese goods. “The unprecedented shutdown of normal economic activity across Europe, the U.S. and a growing number of emerging markets is certain to cause a dramatic contraction in Chinese exports, probably in the range of a 20-45% year-on-year drop in the second quarter,” said Thomas Gatley, senior analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.

Plastics industry seeks roll back of bag bans. Producers of plastic are lobbying to reverse plastic bag bans across the United States, using the pandemic as a reason to allow more disposable plastic. 

Oil storage filling up. The world is estimated to have between 0.9 and 1.8 billion barrels of oil storage capacity, with the industry using 71 percent currently. But crude qualities cannot be stored together, and there are other logistical bottlenecks preventing full use of all storage facilities. Traders told Reuters that storage in the U.S. could reach capacity by May or June. Canadian output could begin to fall in April as storage maxes out. 

Canadian oil sands shut ins begin. Western Canada Select is trading at around $9 per barrel, forcing some shut-ins. Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) said it would shut in one of its trains at its Fort Hills project. 

Gasoline prices plunge. $1 gasoline is popping up in a growing number of regions in the U.S. Nationally, retail gasoline prices are set to average $1.49 per gallon by mid-April. “You almost can’t even give it away,” Paul Bingham, head transportation economist at IHS Markit Ltd., told Bloomberg. “The price elasticity has totally changed. It’s full-on demand destruction.”

Petrobras to cut spending by 30 percent. Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) said it would cut 2020 spending by 30 percent to $8.5 billion and lower its production by 100,000 bpd. That includes shutting in shallow water production of 23,000 bpd.

Iraq asks IOCs to cut spending by 30 percent. Iraq asked four international oil companies to lower their spending by 30 percent, a list that includes Eni (NYSE: E), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Lukoil and BP (NYSE: BP). The request would ease a burden on Iraqi budgets.

By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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