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TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The first time China faced Donald Trump in the White House, there was a trade war, a breach of protocol involving Taiwan’s former leader, and a president-to-president bromance that turned sour.

As President-elect Trump prepares to start his second term in office, China is bracing for unpredictability in its ties with the United States and renewed tensions over trade, technology and Taiwan.

A new tariff war looms

Perhaps the biggest consequence for China — if Trump stays true to his campaign promises — is his threat to slap blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S.

Tariffs like that would be a blow to China’s already unstable economy, which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump and government debt. A 60% duty on Chinese imports could shave off 2.5 percentage points, or about half, of China’s projected economic growth, according to an analysis published earlier this year by UBS.

During Trump’s previous term in office, the U.S. imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion of Chinese products. That brought Beijing to the negotiating table, and in 2020 the two sides signed a trade deal in which China committed to improve intellectual property rights and buy an extra $200 billion of American goods. A research group a couple of years later showed China had bought essentially none of the goods it had promised.

President Joe Biden retained most of those tariffs and added fresh duties this year on imports including steel, solar cells and electric vehicles.

Like last time, tariffs could serve as a tool to force Beijing back to the negotiating table, said Henry Gao, a law professor at Singapore Management University who focuses on international trade.

“Given the weak economic position of China this time, I think there will be more willingness to talk,” he said. “Thus, while the tariff might have some short-term effects on the Chinese economy, the situation might improve once they reach a deal.”

Factoring into the trade talks could be Trump’s appeals to Chinese President Xi Jinping to help negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine war, which Trump has boasted he’ll be able to do quickly, without saying how.

Trump previously sought Xi’s help in dealing with North Korea’s rogue leader Kim Jong Un. That dynamic could repeat itself, with Trump weighing trade grievances against seeking China’s support in global crises, according to Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.

“China is the largest trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine,” Wang wrote in a recent commentary. “These close economic ties give China a unique opportunity to play a greater role in peace-making efforts.”

Willing to go ‘crazy’ over Taiwan

There is one scenario in which Trump has threatened to impose even higher tariffs — 150% to 200% — on Chinese goods: if China invades Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing claims as its own.

The U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as a country, but is its strongest backer and biggest arms provider.

Trump angered Beijing in December 2016 by taking a congratulatory call from Taiwan’s then-president Tsai Ing-wen in a breach of diplomatic protocol. No U.S. president had spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader since Washington and Beijing established ties in 1979.

Trump’s move created anxiety in China-watching circles, but ultimately, he stuck to supporting the status quo in relations between Taipei and Beijing.

China expects him to continue to do so, said Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University.

“Will (he) want to turn to support Taiwan independence? It is unlikely,” he said.

As for China’s repeated threats to annex Taiwan, Trump told The Wall Street Journal last month that he would not have to use military force to prevent a blockade of Taiwan because Xi “respects me and he knows I’m (expletive) crazy.”

On the campaign trail, Trump sometimes talked up his personal connection with Xi, which started exuberantly during his first term but soured over disputes about trade and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Trump has also said that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defending it against China, likening the relationship to insurance. Taiwan spends about 2.5% of its GDP on defense, and purchased hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of U.S. weapons this year.

Trump has purposely maintained a sense of uncertainty in his relationship with China, said Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

“We are clear about the challenges,” he said. “As for opportunities, we are yet to see them clearly.”

Disputes over chips

During his first term, Trump began targeting Chinese technology firms over security concerns, focusing on large companies like the telecoms giant Huawei. Biden continued in that direction by placing curbs on China’s access to advanced semiconductors, which are needed to develop strategic industries such as artificial intelligence.

But Trump has criticized Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan bill that earmarked $53 billion to build up domestic manufacturing of semiconductors. Currently, Taiwan produces nearly 90% of the world’s supply of the most advanced chips.

The island’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC, expanded production in Arizona, partly to respond to the CHIPS Act, and to be prepared to withstand any other protectionist policies in the U.S., said Shihoko Goto, director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the Wilson Center.

Trump has promised to do away with the CHIPS Act, though critics say that would undermine his campaign to reindustrialize the U.S. The president-elect has also accused Taiwan of “stealing” the chip industry from the U.S. decades ago.

“Rather than providing a silicon shield, Taiwan’s dominance in the chip industry could actually be the source of tension between Taipei and Trump, as Taiwan’s successes in the chip sector may be seen as having only been possible as a result of the United States being taken advantage of,” Goto said.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — It’s no surprise that students are pushing back on cellphone bans in classrooms. But school administrators in one South Florida county working to pull students’ eyes away from their screens are facing some resistance from another group as well – parents.

Since the beginning of the 2024 school year in August, students in Broward County Public Schools, the country’s sixth largest district, have been barred from using cellphones during the school day, including during lunch and breaks, unless given special permission.

The schools are some of the many across the country wrestling with how to crack down on cellphones, at a time when experts say social media use among young people is nearly universal – and that screen time is linked to higher rates of anxiety and depression among kids.

But a survey sent out by the South Florida school district earlier this fall found that of the more than 70,000 students, teachers and parents surveyed, nearly one in five parents believe the cellphone ban is having a negative impact on their student’s wellbeing.

Among the top concerns for the students and parents surveyed is not being able to communicate with their family members, especially in an emergency — an anxiety that cuts deep in the district that’s home to Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, where a 2018 shooting killed 17 people.

District officials have said students can use their phones during an emergency and that teachers have the flexibility to grant kids access for other reasons too.

“I don’t think any of us thinks kids should be on their phones during class,” said Erin Gohl, a parent and advocate in the district.

“We’re really talking about giving kids tools during those times when they need it,” she added, including letting students use their phones for “positive mental health purposes”.

Officials in the Fort Lauderdale-area district have acknowledged that implementation of the policy has been inconsistent. Some teachers have struggled to monitor students’ phone use, and are facing the reality that for some kids, phones can be a needed tool to access online lessons and turn in assignments, especially for those who don’t have a school-issued laptop. And parents have argued their students are better off with their phones, helping them coordinate afternoon pickup times or text their parents for advice about a school bully.

“I don’t expect students to say — or parents of high schoolers to say — right, that, they don’t want their kids to have cellphones,” said Howard Hepburn, Broward superintendent of schools. “The expectation that we’re going to just have a hard stop is not reality. It takes time.”

Landyn Spellberg, a student advisor to the Broward school board, said there are a lot of benefits to phones — and that the district’s blanket ban isn’t helping students with something many adults still struggle with: learning how to use technology in a healthy way.

“I think it’s important that we teach students about the negatives,” he said. “We don’t inform students of those things.”

___ Kate Payne is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

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