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Even with strict containment measures, officials project up to 22,000 COVID-19 deaths in Canada – CBC.ca

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Federal health officials are projecting there could be nearly 32,000 cases of COVID-19 and between 500 and 700 deaths in Canada by April 16, and even with relatively strong control measures in place, there could be between 11,000 and 22,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic.

The figures came Thursday morning as officials released modelling on how the COVID-19 crisis could unfold in the country, and suggested that containment measures such as physical distancing and quarantines could be in place for months to come.

The longer-term projections look at scenarios for when strong controls are followed (one-10 per cent of the population infected, called the “green zone”), weaker controls (25-50 per cent infected, called the “blue zone”) and no controls (70-80 per cent infected, called the “red zone”).

With strong controls, if about 2.5 to five per cent of the population became infected, that would mean between 934,000 and 1.9 million cases. That would also mean up to 22,000 deaths and between 23,000 and 46,000 ICU admissions.

If no containment measures had been taken, which was not the case in Canada, there would be a worst-case scenario of about 300,000 deaths. 

Officials said the caseload in Canada is doubling every three to five days, which is considered a relatively positive trajectory compared to other countries. Tam said that is in large part because of lessons learned from other countries about how strong control measures can limit the spread of the virus.

Tam said she is hopeful Canada can stay in the green zone and keep infections and deaths relatively low. 

‘Prevent every death that we can’

She warned that measures that can create “hardships” are critical to keep ICU admissions and deaths as low as possible.

“We can’t prevent every death, but we must prevent every death that we can,” she said.

Tam said it’s early to know how close Canada is nationally to seeing a “peak” in transmission. But she cautioned that even as there’s a decline in transmissions, Canadians must stay the course with preventative measures as there is a risk of the virus re-igniting.

“What we do together now will buy us more time to further understand the virus and to develop treatments and vaccines,” she said.

“We are the authors of our fate. Together we can plank the epidemic curve.”

Tam said if 2.5 per cent of the population were infected, there would begin to be strains on the health-care system.

Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models are “imperfect” but that they can help understand the state and trajectory of the pandemic and the effect of public health measures to combat the spread of COVID-19. 1:03

The analysis of how many people could become infected, get sick or die from the virus comes just before the long holiday weekend.

Tam said models are “imperfect” but they can help understand the state of the pandemic and where it might go, along with the effect of public health measures on the transmission of the virus.

Repeated advice

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly told Canadians that how fast and far the virus spreads will depend largely on how stringently Canadians follow public health advice, including physical distancing, handwashing and staying home whenever possible.

Several provinces have already released projections. Ontario estimates the number of deaths in the province could reach between 3,000 and 15,000 people over the course of the pandemic, which could last up to two years. 

Tam has cautioned that models that try to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s important to focus on data on what is happening in real time.

How projections actually play out depends largely on actions taken by individuals and governments, she said.

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Bimbo Canada closing Quebec City bakery, affecting 141 workers

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MONTREAL – Bakery company Bimbo Canada says it’s closing its bakery in Quebec City by the end of the year, affecting about 141 workers.

The company says operations will wind down gradually over the next few months as it moves production to its other bakeries.

Bimbo Canada produces and distributes brands including Dempster’s, Villaggio and Stonemill.

It’s a subsidiary of Mexico-based Grupo Bimbo.

The company says it’s focused on optimizing its manufacturing footprint.

It says it will provide severance, personal counselling and outplacement services to affected employees.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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NDP to join Bloc in defeating Conservatives’ non-confidence motion

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OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.

The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.

Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.

If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.

Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.

“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.

“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”

Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.

The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.

Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.

“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.

At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.

Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.

“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.

Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.

“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.

“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”

A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.

The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.

The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.

If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.

“This is what we call power,” he said.

Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.

“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.

“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.



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Anita Anand sworn in as transport minister after Pablo Rodriguez resigns

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OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.

Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.

She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.

“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.

The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.

Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.

“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.

The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.

Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.

On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.

He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.

“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.

“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”

Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.

He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”

The next federal election must be held by October 2025.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.

Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.

Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.

As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”

Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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