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The (sort of) good news behind Canada's epic job loss numbers – Financial Post

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Months passed before a consensus formed that the Great Recession was even an economic downturn. The data slowly deteriorated, at least until Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September 2008. That left time for equivocation.

The coronavirus crisis has arrived more like an atomic explosion than a slow-burning fuse. But at least we can do away with all the qualifiers about what’s going on in the economy.

Statistics Canada on April 9 reported that employment decreased by more than one million positions in March, wiping out all the jobs created since the autumn of 2016. The collapse was eight times greater than the previous record for job losses in a month, which was 124,800 in January 2009. It was also larger than the entire drop in employment during the downturns of 2008/09, 1990/92 and 1980/81.

The unemployment rate, which, at 5.6 per cent in February, was near an historic low, surged to 7.8 per cent, the highest rate since October 2010. Hours worked, an important driver of economic output, plunged 15 per cent, the biggest decline in records that date back to 1976. And, to keep us from drifting away from what really matters, the number of people who lost hours in March because they were sick spiked to 675,000, an increase of some 336,000.

“It is expected that the sudden employment decline observed in March will have a significant effect on the performance of the Canadian economy over the coming months,” Statistics Canada said. The observation is graver than it sounds, because the agency almost never risks interpreting its own numbers. For a take on what it really means, let’s turn to Bay Street: “Canada is now in a deep recession,” said Krishen Rangasamy, an economist at National Bank Financial.

Now what? We wait, and try to remember that all those terrifying graphs that economists are passing around on Twitter tell us nothing that we didn’t already know. Intelligent people keep writing and saying things like, “for the next couple of years at least, (Canada) won’t have much of a functioning economy to speak of.”

As far as I can tell, the pessimism is rooted in the extraordinary nature of the recession, not a clear-eyed assessment of actual conditions. Life might never go back to normal, but that doesn’t herald years of hardship. The most likely scenario remains that economies will start to reopen by the end of spring and start climbing back in the second half of the year.

That’s how investors see it. The S&P/TSX composite index rose after Statistics Canada released its first major tally of the coronavirus crisis, with investors betting that the flattening curve of newly reported cases in Europe and the United States shows the recession may be brutal, but it will be short.

“There is a light at the end of the (short) tunnel as the new number of COVID-19 cases on the planet is improving, a potential leading indicator of a positive turnaround in economic activity in the coming weeks and months,” Sébastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities, said in a note to clients.

China is edging back to normal, and Austria, Denmark, Czech Republic and Norway have all announced plans to ease lockdown restrictions this month. “Until some restrictions are lifted in Canada, several financial bridges and tax breaks announced by governments will contribute to support income and ease financial stress,” Lavoie said.

That last part is important. The benefit of watching an epic collapse unfold in real time is that policy-makers and politicians aren’t left with time to ruminate and pontificate over what to do. The silver lining around the jobs numbers is that the epic decline will be met with a public rescue of historic proportions.

The Bank of Canada has already slashed interest rates to effectively zero, and when that wasn’t enough, it started creating billions of dollars to buy bonds. The federal government has promised to spend more than $100 billion on various measures, including a subsidy that will cover 75 per cent of most distressed companies’ wages. It has also promised tax deferrals and low-interest loans worth tens of billions of dollars more.

None of this will fully offset the economic loss from entire industries being forced to close overnight, nor will it guarantee that the economy will revert to what it was in February. But, unlike recessions past, the blow to households and companies will be cushioned almost immediately. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s rescue efforts have been hesitant, but he will still have put more foam on the runway than any of his predecessors.

It might also be worth keeping in mind that the economy still has a pulse. Simon De Baene, co-founder and chief executive of Groupe GSoft Inc., a Montreal-based business software maker, told me last week that he’s still hiring. The shift to a digital economy won’t be slowed by the coronavirus; it might even be accelerated.

Retailers such as Loblaw Cos. Inc. and Dollarama Inc. have given their frontline employees temporary raises. And companies involved in agriculture and other resource industries actually added workers in March, Statistics Canada said.

“Our order book is very solid,” Chuck Magro, chief executive of Nutrien Ltd., the Saskatoon-based potash miner, said in an interview last week. “All of our operations are running as per our original plan,” except for the introduction of social distancing and other safety measures, he said. “We haven’t seen any significant curtailments of production.”

A fertilizer company isn’t representative of the broader Canadian economy. But Nutrien is a reminder that some foundations remain in place. The 2020 crop is on its way to being planted at the very least.

Financial Post

• Email: kcarmichael@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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