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Big Banks Turn Bearish On Oil Next Year – OilPrice.com

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As the year draws to a close, the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are trading at $66.55 and $61.54, respectively.

From $60.65 to $64.50, investment bank and analyst projections for Brent crude prices next year are starting to come in. Most forecasts had the luxury of OPEC’s deeper production cuts under the belt, but by and large, analysts are predicting only lackluster, short-term price gains from the cartel’s actions.

Goldman Sachs – $63/$60. Goldman has updated its 2020 oil price forecast to account for the new OPEC production cuts sealed a couple weeks ago. Its latest projection now sees the Brent benchmark averaging $63 per barrel next year, up from their previous $60 per barrel projection. For the US WTI benchmark, the investment bank sees it averaging $58.50 per barrel. Part of its rationale for the increase was its perceived shift in OPEC strategy—shifting away from trying to correct long-term supply and demand imbalances and toward short-term imbalances. As a result, the Goldman sees the gap between supply and demand next year tightening by 300,000 more barrels per day compared to what they had previously forecast.

JP Morgan – $64.50/$60. While JP Morgan’s Brent forecast for 2020 is higher than Goldman’s, their WTI forecast is the same. JP Morgan is predicting an average barrel price of $64.50 for the Brent benchmark—up from earlier projections of $59.50.  In contrast to Goldman, JP Morgan is estimating that the oil markets will swing into deficit next year, by 200,000 bpd thanks to OPEC’s bigger production cuts. Their previous forecast, issued in September, saw 2020 in an oversupply situation to the tune of 600,000 bpd.

EIA – $61/$55.50. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Brent benchmark will average $61 per barrel next year. Meanwhile, the EIA is expecting WTI to average $55.50. This is lower than 2019 average prices, which for Brent were $64 per barrel. The reason for the lowered forecast is rising global oil inventories, particularly in the first half of 2020. Even though the EIA is seeing increasing oil inventories globally, it is forecasting a 3 percent rise in refinery runs next year as IMO 2020 regulations kick in.

S&P Global Platts – Platts sees Brent topping $65 per barrel in early 2020, after which will fall back to the low $60s by year end. The reason for the early 2020 increase is the new IMO regulations, which will favor sweeter crude varieties such as Brent and WTI. Platts is forecasting that WTI will exceed $60 per barrel early next year, before falling back to the high $50s. Platts mentioned in its 2020 forecast Greta Thunberg and the Climate Extinction rebellion, and stated that “efforts by governments to increase energy prices to support the climate agenda will continue to be met by equal opposition as seen with the gilets jaunes and protests in Chile, Ecuador and Iran,” adding that 2020 will bring us to an “intriguing crossroad for the energy transition.” Still, Platts believes that weather will have a greater impact on prices than US-China trade talks and geopolitical risks. Related: The 10 Most Important Oil Market Trends For 2020

WSJ Poll – $60.65/$55.68. A survey of investment banks conducted by the Wall Street Journal predicted that the Brent benchmark would average $61.23 per barrel in Q1 next year, but for the full year, the banks are anticipating an average of $60.65 per barrel. WTI is expected to average $55.68 per barrel according to the banks polled. Behind the banks’ forecast for slippage mid-year are the thought that the OPEC cuts would not be enough to counteract the oil production injection from Norway, Brazil, Guyana, and the United States.

Morgan Stanley – Presenting a grimmer view of next year’s oil prices, Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude reaching $62.50 in the first quarter of 2020, before falling back to $60 per barrel for the rest of the year. The reason for the more bearish outlook on oil prices is partially due to the single-quarter nature of the deeper OPEC production cuts which will only have a short-term effect, and partially due to the fact that OPEC needed to cut deeper at all in order to lift prices, highlighting the “softness in underlying fundamentals”.  For WTI, Morgan Stanley expects prices to hold at $57.50 per barrel in Q1, and $55 for the rest of 2020.

Reuters Poll – $62.50. A Reuters poll of analysts and economists—taken before the OPEC meeting, in late November—pegged Brent at an average of $62.50 for next year. Reuters noted that this was the lowest prediction for 2020 in about two years. Most respondents did not anticipate deeper OPEC cuts, while agreeing that there was simply too much oil on the market.  There has not been an updated Reuters poll since the OPEC meet, but we would expect those estimates to climb somewhat given OPEC’s surprise cut announcement.

The forecasts for $60.65 to $64.50 for the Brent benchmark compare to today’s Brent prices of $66.69—with all major forecasts calling for a bearish trend for 2020.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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