China faces a drawn-out struggle to revive its economy after it suffered its biggest contraction since at least the 1970s after ordering hundreds of millions of people to stay home to fight the coronavirus.
The world’s second-largest economy shrank by 6.8 per cent from a year earlier in the quarter ending in March after factories, offices and shopping malls were closed to contain the outbreak, official data showed Friday. Consumer spending, which supplied 80 per cent of last year’s growth, and factory activity were weaker than expected.
China, where the pandemic began in December, is the first major economy to start to recover after the ruling Communist Party declared the virus under control last month. It has allowed factories to reopen but cinemas and other businesses that employ millions of workers still are closed.
‘V-shaped’ recovery seen as unlikely
There are signs that after an “initial bounce” as controls ended, “the recovery in activity has since slowed to a crawl,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report.
“China is in for a drawn-out recovery.”
Forecasters earlier said China might rebound as early as this month. But they say a sharp, “V-shaped” recovery looks increasingly unlikely as negative export, retail sales and other data pile up.
Instead, they expect a gradual crawl back to growth in low single digits in the coming quarters. For the full year, forecasters including UBS, Nomura and Oxford Economics expect little to no growth.
Retail sales fell 19 per cent from a year earlier in the first quarter. That improved in March, the final month of the quarter, to a decline of 15.8 per cent. But consumers, jittery about possible job losses, are reluctant to spend despite government efforts to lure them back to shopping malls and auto showrooms.
That is a blow to automakers and other companies that hope China will power the world economy out of its most painful slump since the 1930s.
Labourers wear face masks to protect against the spread of the novel coronavirus as they look at job postings at a market in Qingdao, in eastern China’s Shandong province, on April 8. (Chinatopix/The Associated Press)
Job-hunter Ni Hong’s challenge highlights the problem. Ni, 32, quit her job in Beijing in January to find a new one, but the virus disrupted those plans. Ni is paying her mortgage out of her savings and avoiding other spending while she looks in a market flooded with newly laid-off workers.
“In the past, there were maybe two or three candidates for a post,” Ni said. “Now, I have eight to 10 competitors, so the chance for me to be eliminated is much higher.”
China’s leaders base their claim to power on their ability to deliver economic success. The ruling party has appealed to companies to keep paying employees and avoid layoffs. But an unknown number have failed, adding to the public’s anxiety.
‘We are responding forcefully and massively’ to the crisis, says World Bank president David Malpass, as the most basic issues emerge. 1:20
Economy already squeezed by tariff war
The economy already was squeezed by a tariff war with U.S. President Donald Trump over Beijing’s technology ambitions and trade surplus. Last year’s growth sank to a multi-decade low of 6.1 per cent.
Exports were down 6.6 per cent in March from a year earlier, an improvement over the double-digit plunge in January and February. But forecasters say demand is bound to slump in America and Europe as anti-virus controls keep shoppers at home.
“Lingering consumption weakness and sliding foreign demand will weigh on the upturn,” Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics said in a report.
Growth was stronger than some forecasts that called for a contraction of up to 16 per cent, but this is the biggest contraction since market-style reforms started in 1979.
“The numbers were even uglier than most anticipated, which is good!” Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia said in a report. “These ugly numbers indicate that the leadership didn’t fudge the data to hide the seriousness of the situation.”
Investment in factories, real estate and other fixed assets, the other major growth driver, sank 16.1 per cent.
Auto sales sank 48.4 per cent from a year earlier in March. That was better than February’s record 81.7 per cent plunge but is on top of a two-year-old decline that is squeezing global and Chinese automakers in the industry’s biggest global market.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was little changed in late-morning trading as the financial sector fell, but energy and base metal stocks moved higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.05 of a point at 24,224.95.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 94.31 points at 42,417.69. The S&P 500 index was down 10.91 points at 5,781.13, while the Nasdaq composite was down 29.59 points at 18,262.03.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.71 cents US compared with 73.05 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was up US$1.69 at US$74.93 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up a penny at US$2.67 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$14.70 at US$2,640.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up two cents at US$4.42 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the technology and base meta sectors, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 106.70 points at 24,179.21.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 280.87 points at 42,361.24. The S&P 500 index was up 26.51 points at 5,777.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 69.52 points at 18,252.44.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.08 cents US compared with 73.22 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 67 cents at US$72.90 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.66 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.30 at US$2,633.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was down five cents at US$4.41 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 9, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index lost nearly 100 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the energy and base metal sectors, while U.S. stock markets climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 96.78 points at 24,005.93.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 42.35 points at 41,996.59. The S&P 500 index was up 43.17 points at 5,739.11, while the Nasdaq composite was up 215.69 points at 18,139.59.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.15 cents US compared with 73.48 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was down US$3.42 at US$73.72 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.73 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$32.20 at US$2,633.80 an ounce and the December copper contract was down 11 cents at US$4.46 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 8, 2024.
