It’s no coincidence that the first large Western democracy to contain the spread of COVID-19, and the first to prepare to reopen its economy, is Germany, whose leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, is a trained scientist.
Likewise, the most successful Asian democracy to contain the spread, and never have to lock down its economy, is Taiwan, whose vice-president, Chen Chien-jen, is an epidemiologist and esteemed scientific researcher.
How both coped well with this pandemic highlights the fact that scientific credentials, along with economic ones, should be key criteria in selecting leaders and cabinet ministers in the future. This is not because pandemics are going to come with increasing frequency. This is because those with science and economic backgrounds can evaluate complex data and make better decisions than those elected because of their looks, tweets, speeches or name recognition.
Germany, by the way, should have had a catastrophic crisis on its hands because it is densely populated and surrounded by countries with soaring death rates. But its science-based policies helped it navigate the crisis better than most. Its death rate of 54 deaths per million is dramatically lower than nearby countries such as Spain (437 per million), Italy (384), France (296) and the United Kingdom (237).
For starters, Germans have not been as unruly as residents of many other European countries, or the United States. This is because they are disciplined and efficient: German financial assistance to workers and business was almost immediate. Besides that, its public was mollified because, throughout this pandemic, Merkel has made a series of calm and reasoned public addresses to explain the scientific issues and lay out the next steps, along with the reasons why the government is taking those steps.
There were no televised outbursts involving magical thinking, no playing the blame game, no upstaging other levels of government or engaging in baseless forecasting. Germans were given the facts from the start as to how challenging this would be.
Merkel quickly imposed stringent two-person limits on gatherings, along with social distancing requirements and lockdowns. She explained that the government’s priorities were testing and the tracing of “every infection chain,” to contain the spread.
In the beginning, Germany was hit just as hard as other European countries, but its health-care system has fared much better. It was, and is, self-sufficient in terms of medical devices, test kits and equipment production, and had a surplus of ICU beds and other specialized health-care services at the ready.
Its institutions and politicians were temperate. There was no competition for supplies and — due to Merkel’s science-based policymaking — the country ramped-up testing faster than and to a greater scale than most. Now about 120,000 tests are administered daily among a population of 83 million, and the goal is to do even more.
Results have been rapid and flawless, thanks to a network of laboratories that, among other innovations, developed the first test in the world for this coronavirus.
Now Germany is so far advanced in controlling the virus that it is cautiously rolling out a system of issuing so-called “immunity cards” for those who have been shown to have developed antibodies to the disease, which will allow them to work, travel and socialize, thus allowing the country to gradually reopen its economy. Such a system will be the key to finding a safe and sustainable way to kickstart economic activity in Canada and elsewhere.
On this side of the pond, 16 U.S. states have formed three coalitions to examine a staged re-opening of their economies. This will be based, as California Gov. Gavin Newsom said, “on science and public health, not politics.”
Canada’s provinces should adopt the German model: prioritize antibody testing and immune certification as a means of safely reopening their economies. Canada is not a country with a sizeable scientific research base, as Germany is, but our health-care systems are gigantic, science-based, not-for-profit organizations that work closely with their provincial governments. They must sign off on how to lift restrictions, in order to protect their workers and avoid a second wave of contagion.
Financial Post
