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Teranet: Expect Loss of Real Estate Momentum in Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal – Better Dwelling

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Canada’s largest land registry operator saw Canadian real estate prices moving higher. The TeranetNational Bank of Canada House Price Index (HPI) shows prices increased in March. Analysts from the creator of the index warned the pandemic is likely to have an abrupt shift soon. As the lockdown carries on, they expect the index to cool in almost every market – especially those in Eastern Canada.

The Index Is Expected To Cool Over The Next Few Months

It’s really important to know how the HPI differs frrom board data to understand this month’s numbers. The HPI is one of the most accurate sources of data, because it only counts completed sales. This differs from real estate boards, which count sales as soon as they are unconditional. Boards consequently have the freshest information, but it’s also subject to revisions. The HPI has more accurate information at reporting, but it’s subject to some lag, since it only includes completed sales.

During most periods, the difference between the two would be mostly minimal. However, during periods of volatility, both will have their issue. Boards may include sales that never actually close, revising numbers lower. The HPI will lag, not reflecting a rapid deterioration as was observed late last month. Neither are better or worse, but those are important details to keep in mind over the next few months.

With that in mind, Teranet-National Bank of Canada analysts left some important notes. Home prices were gaining momentum in March, but that is based on registry data. Since registry data lags, the index should reflect the cold water poured on sales. Analysts believe “the loss to be more prevalent in the metropolitan markets located in Central and Eastern Canada (Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal and Halifax) which so far have pulled the national HPI up.”

Canada’s Largest Real Estate Markets Made Big Gains In March

The C11, an index including Canada’s 11 largest real estate markets, made a big advance last month. The price index climbed 0.62% in March, and is now up 3.84% from the same month last year. The firm notes the monthly increase was double the average seen over the past 10 years.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Reached A New High

Greater Toronto real estate prices advanced a little faster than the C11 index. Prices were up 0.86% in March, an increase of 6.26% from last year. The new peak high for the city is being driven entirely by the rise in condo apartments. This 12-month increase is almost half the increase reported using the board’s methodology.

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Prices Rise, But Still Lower Than Last Year

Greater Vancouver real estate prices advanced even more than Toronto. The price index increased 1.02% in March, but was still 0.69% lower than the same month last year. Prices remain 4.97% below the peak reached in July 2018.

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Makes A Smaller Than Average Gain

Probably the most interesting move last month, Montreal lagged the C11 movement. The city’s index increased 0.16% in March, bringing it 7.54% higher than the same month last year. Prices are now at a new all-time high, and rising faster than the C11 has over the past year. The monthly movement is just a little strange, considering the market still hasn’t seen an increase like Toronto or Vancouver yet.

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Calgary Real Estate Falls By Every Measure

Greater Calgary real estate looked like it was about to recover, but took a nosedive. Prices fell 0.13%  in March, bringing them 1.31% lower than the same month last year. Prices are now 8.23% below the peak hit in October 2014 – more than half a decade ago.

Calgary Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Like most other indicators, the abrupt change in direction is of limited use. After the biggest rise of unemployment since the Great Depression, we’re in unprecedented territory. Faster information isn’t necessarily better either, since turbulent times often lead to revisions. The best bet is watching for signs of stabilization, or signs of destabilization.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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