April 22, 2020 – Justin Trudeau has been no stranger to a sustained profile on the national stage. But more than one month into an unprecedented national shutdown due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Prime Minister’s front-and-centre presence at daily briefings has caused his approval ratings to do something they have not done in nearly two years: crack the majority mark.
The latest study from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds 54 per cent of Canadians now endorse him, a 21-point increase since the end of February.
While the Institute acknowledges the chance of a snap election call to replace this minority government anytime soon is almost-nil – it is worth noting that Trudeau’s recent surge in popularity does not necessarily translate into a significant advantage for the fortunes of the Liberal Party among would-be voters.
The governing party is now in a statistical tie, holding a slight advantage over the opposition Conservative Party (29% to 27%). A considerable group of Canadians say they are not sure who they would support if an election were held (16%). Looking only at decided voters, the Liberals lead by three points: 36 per cent to 33 per cent over the CPC.
More Key Findings:
89 per cent of past Liberal voters approve of the Prime Minister, joined by 74 per cent of those who voted for the NDP. Just one-in-five past CPC voters and 28 per cent of Bloc Quebecois voters approve of Trudeau
Majority approval for Trudeau is noted among all age groups, something that last happened in March of 2017
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX:
Trudeau’s approval up 21 points
Vote Intention
Trudeau’s approval up 21 points
When the Angus Reid Institute last surveyed Canadians asking their approval of the Prime Minister, the COVID-19 outbreak was still in its infancy, with infections centred in China and surrounding areas. Since then, its impact on Canada, like many other countries, has been widely felt. Trudeau has continually urged Canadians to do their part to “flatten the curve”, while his government seeks measures to mitigate widespread economic damage. This has included the unprecedented closing of Canada’s borders, mandatory quarantine for Canadians returning from abroad, and an $82 billion aid package (with billions more for other projects announced).
Canadians appear, thus far, to be satisfied with the Trudeau government’s management of the pandemic. In addition to the 62 per cent who recently said the Prime Minister himself has done a good job on that specific issue, his approval has also risen 21 points over the past two months:
Multiple crises led to a number of swings in approval for Trudeau this year. His handling of the Iran plane crash in early January, for instance, led to a temporary seven-point boost, but nationwide blockades and protests due to the Coastal Gaslink-Wet’suwet’en dispute in late February triggered a double digit drop.
Notably, this latest rating of 54 per cent is a level he hasn’t achieved in nearly three years:
Trudeau’s highest approval is found in Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, reaching at least 58 per cent in each region. Quebec and Manitoba residents are divided, with half approving and close to half disapproving in each province. Albertans and those in Saskatchewan continue to disapprove of the PM:
Past Bloc Quebecois voters and past Conservatives are close to equally negative in their assessment of the Prime Minister, while he fares much better with his own past voters and NDP supporters:
Perhaps the most notable change in approval of the Prime Minister is found when looking at the age-related data. Trudeau’s approval is up 23 points among those ages 55 and over, and now places him above a majority with all age groups, something that last happened in March of 2017:
Age and gender combinations show a different story. Women of all age are more supportive of Trudeau, while men are either divided, or lean toward disapproval:
Vote Intention
While politics is not a high priority for most Canadians right now, it is worth considering the current sentiments of voters in a minority government situation.
Asked which party they would support in an election, the Liberals hold a two-point advantage over the Conservatives, while a considerable number of Canadians – 16 per cent – say that they are undecided at this point:
Regionally, the picture is competitive in British Columbia, with the NDP in the mix. The Conservatives hold substantial advantages in Alberta and the Prairies, while the Liberals lead the CPC in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada:
The Liberals perform best with women, holding an advantage over the CPC among each age group among that gender, though trailing the NDP among young women. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are the top option among all male age groups:
Looking at decided voters, the Liberal advantage gains one more point over the CPC (36 per cent to 33 per cent). The NDP are supported by 17 per cent of Canadians, while the Green Party is supported by four per cent:
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
