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Investment demand to drive silver price to $19 – World Silver Survey 2020 – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – A global slowdown caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic will weigh on silver industrial demand this year, but according to the latest research for the Silver Institute, investment demand will drive prices higher in 2020.

“The silver market is small so it doesn’t take a lot of money to really push prices higher,” said Phillip Newman, director of Metals Focus, the research firm behind the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2020.

In a telephone interview with Kitco News, Newman said that investor demand for silver, led by a rally in gold, could push prices to $19 an ounce this year. The comments come as silver prices struggle to hold gains above $15 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $14.96, up 0.6% on the day.

Metals Focus’ price target represents a more than 26% gain in silver from current prices. However, Newman warned that analysts still expect silver to underperform gold, which will remain the ultimate safe haven as coronavirus uncertainty continues to dominate the global economy and financial markets.

Looking at the gold/silver ratio, Newman said it should come down from last month’s record highs but still remain elevated around 90 points. The ratio traded around 114 points Wednesday, meaning that it take 114 ounces of silver to equal one ounce of gold.

“The rally starts with gold and then moves to silver as investors start to see value in the precious metal,” he said.

One of the key indicators that Newman is watching to gauge silver’s investment potential is speculative interest. Newman noted that the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that net-bullish positioning in silver is at its lowest level in a year.

“There is significant room for speculative investment to come back into the market,” he said. “That is one of the most important investor indicators we are watching right now.”

Along with stronger gold, Newman said that lower volatility in silver prices will also help to attract investors back to the market.

Along with strong investor interest in silver-backed exchange-traded products, Newman said that analysts also expect to see higher demand for physical investment. Metals Focus expects demand for silver bullion and coins to rise 16% this year.

The optimistic silver price outlook comes as industrial demand is expected to fall this year. Overall the firm sees physical silver demand dropping 3%, totaling 963.4 million ounces. The firm also noted that this is the lowest demand level for the precious metal since 2009.

Helping to provide some balance to the marketplace is the fact that Metals Focus said that supply is also expected to drop by 4% this year. Global silver supply is expected to come in at 978.1 million ounces in 2020, also the lowest level since 2009, the firm said.

At the start of the month, Mexico declared mining a non-essential service, which forced many mines to shut down their operations. Mexico is the world’s biggest source of primary silver and represents about 23% of total global supply.

Crunching all the numbers, Metals Focus said that silver’s supply surplus is expected to total 14.7 million ounces, a drop of 53% compared to the stockpile created in 2019.

Although silver’s industrial demand is expected to be lackluster this year, Newman said that he is optimistic the sector will survive the impending global downturn.

For example, weak global growth and low oil prices are expected to weigh on solar power demand. Still, Newman said that renewable energy will still represent an important market for silver.

“Some countries are expected to postpone new capacity for solar energy, but the sector is solid enough to survive this drop,” he said.

Newman said that the electrification of the auto sector is also a growing area of demand for silver. A global depression will weaken car sales, but demand for silver will remain.

?“Every new car that comes out uses more than the older version,” he said.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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