Residents of Canada’s two largest provinces are expected to learn this week what the path to a new normal might look like when the governments of Ontario and Quebec unveil their initial plans for reopening their locked-down economies.
Sunday saw warnings about raising unrealistic expectations as public-health officials across the country reported more than 1,200 new cases of COVID-19 and at least 95 additional deaths. Ontario, meanwhile, announced schools would remain closed through the end of May.
There was nonetheless a palpable sense of expectation as Sunday marked a rare day in which federal and provincial leaders remained largely out of the spotlight ahead of what is likely to be a significant week for the country.
2:34 Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says no plans to reopen ‘hinge’ on people being immune to COVID-19
Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says no plans to reopen ‘hinge’ on people being immune to COVID-19
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is planning early in the week to unveil a framework for reopening the province’s economy, which has been shuttered since mid March because of COVID-19. Quebec Premier Francois Legault is also expected to reveal his own timeline for reopening his province.
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The two provinces, which have the most COVID-19 cases in Canada, will be the latest to lay out some details for easing their own lockdowns after Saskatchewan, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick announced tentative timelines for a return to some semblance of normal last week.
Yet that path, in Ontario at least, won’t be quick. Ontario Education Minister Stephen Lecce announced Sunday that publicly-funded schools will remain closed until May 31, adding the closure could be extended if recommended by public health officials.
“The commitment I can make to parents today is to ensure safety guides our decisions,” Lecce said. “We will never compromise the safety of your child, knowing how important it is to make sure that our youngsters, the most vulnerable in our country, remain safe.”
Ford, who on Saturday criticized demonstrators outside the Ontario legislature as “yahoos” for disobeying physical-distancing laws and calling for an immediate end to the lockdown, has previously said any reopening will be done in stages to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who talked to the premiers on Friday about their recovery strategies, has previously stressed that none of the plans hinge on people being immune to catching COVID-19 twice.
David Fisman, an expert on infectious diseases at the University of Toronto, said the proper approach should be compared to using a dimmer switch instead of a light switch that only turns on and off.
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“We can’t just flick distancing on and off,” Fisman said in a Twitter thread on Sunday. “But economically and psychologically, we have to figure out what we can restart and what we can’t.”
2:09 NATO chief warns about reliance on PPE imports
NATO chief warns about reliance on PPE imports
Fisman added businesses and services that don’t require large gatherings could be re-opened safely, if they follow the same rules used by essential businesses.
Parks and green spaces could also be re-opened to access, he said.
Federal opposition parties were similarly looking toward the future on Sunday.
3:40 Coronavirus outbreak: Conservative MP says reopening of economies up to provinces, feds must provide supplies to help
Coronavirus outbreak: Conservative MP says reopening of economies up to provinces, feds must provide supplies to help
During a news conference in Ottawa, Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre demanded the government obtain enough protective equipment to help provinces re-open their economies.
Yet even as he underscored the need for the Canadian economy to eventually return to “investment-fuelled production rather than debt-fuelled consumption,” Poilievre called on Ottawa to make sure businesses aren’t cut off from federal support if they re-open partially, but not fully.
“If businesses open in Saskatchewan, but the government of Canada tells them they can’t open and start attracting revenue or they’ll lose their rental subsidy, then many businesses will effectively be banned for financial rather than public health reasons from going forward and working.”
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Federal New Democrats, meanwhile, are launching an effort to identify areas in which the economy should change after COVID-19. The party says the process will include consultations with experts such as entrepreneur Jim Balsillie and former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page.
The party’s hope is to leverage its influence in the current minority Parliament and some of the harsh realities of the current crisis to advance certain economic and social reforms.
“What’s really becoming clear is that we’re going to need a plan to restore the economy and to move towards a new normal,” said NDP MP Charlie Angus, who is leading the task force.
“One of the fundamental realities of getting out of this crisis is that the market is not going to simply carry on. It’s going to require a massive public investment. … So that necessitates a conversation around what kinds of public investments and who is it going to benefit?”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
