How will the coronavirus crisis affect American politics?
The focus, for now, is naturally on the emergency itself. As of Friday evening, more than one million people in the U.S. had been infected by the coronavirus and more than 59,000 had died, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
But here are five areas where the crisis could have a political impact over the longer term.
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Universal health care
The global nature of the health crisis has been a reminder of the United States’ status as the only first-world nation without universal health care coverage.
Additionally, the underpinnings of the U.S. system — where many people’s health insurance is linked to their employment — is under new scrutiny as enormous job losses scythe across the nation. More than 30 million Americans have filed new unemployment claims in the past six weeks.
There is some evidence that the crisis is shifting public views of health care.
A Morning Consult poll in mid-March, just as the crisis was beginning to hit the U.S. hard, found increasing support for universal, government-provided coverage.
The poll found 26 percent of all adults saying it was “much more likely” they would support such a concept and an additional 15 percent saying it was “somewhat more likely.”
Fifty-nine percent of Democrats chose one of those options, but so too did 25 percent of Republicans. Only 12 percent of adults said the crisis made it less likely they would support universal health care.
In a March op-ed for CNN, written before he suspended his presidential campaign, Sanders asserted that universal health care was vital because people would otherwise be discouraged from seeking medical treatment because of the cost. “When somebody is not treated for the virus, that means the infection can spread to many others, putting whole communities at risk,” he wrote.
Still, there is no guarantee that the coronavirus crisis will move opinions on universal health care in a permanent way. And, even if it did so, it is an open question whether legislation to achieve it could be enacted.
The coronavirus crisis may yet herald a change in Americans’ perceptions of voting itself — specifically, the desirability of casting ballots by mail rather than in person.
If the virus were to still be a danger in November, many people would be reluctant to wait in long lines for protracted periods.
There are already signs that the nation is warming to the idea of voting by mail.
An AP-NORC poll released last week found almost 40 percent of adults supported holding elections exclusively by mail — an approximate doubling of the popularity of that opinion since 2018.
In the same poll, an outright majority — 56 percent — said people should be allowed to vote by mail without having to provide a specific reason for doing so.
Five states currently hold elections entirely by mail, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and Utah. Several other states permit some elections to be conducted by mail, or allow individual counties to decide to hold mail-in elections if they wish.
Trump has been notably skeptical of the idea, asserting at one point simply that “mail ballots, they cheat…Mail ballots are very dangerous for this country because of cheaters.” Trump himself, however, voted by mail earlier this year, casting an absentee ballot in Florida.
There are some concerns across the partisan divide that mail-in voting may carry a higher potential for fraud than in-person voting.
But the states that have adopted it have not incurred widescale problems, and the coronavirus crisis could see its acceptability reach critical mass.
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Immigration
President Trump announced on Twitter on April 20 that he would move to “temporarily suspend immigration into the United States” in response to the crisis.
He subsequently issued an executive order but it was not quite so sweeping. It paused green cards from being issued for at least 60 days but it included a number of exceptions. It did not, for example, affect green card applicants who are already in the United States.
Immigrant advocates blasted the move nonetheless, accusing the president of using the crisis to pursue the kind of hard line on the issue that he has long favored.
Some opinion polls, however, suggest many Americans share Trump’s views — at least for now.
A Washington Post/University of Maryland poll conducted from April 21-26 found 65 percent of adults backing the idea of temporarily blocking “nearly all immigration into the United States during the coronavirus outbreak.”
Republicans in that poll supported such a pause overwhelmingly, 83 percent to 17 percent. But Democrats, usually seen as more pro-immigration, were split evenly: 49 percent supporting and 49 percent opposed.
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Immigrant groups argue that such results could be a temporary blip in the midst of a crisis, and should not distract from the fact that most Americans think immigration is a net benefit to the nation.
But the nature of the crisis — a threat that began in China and went on to cause havoc across the globe — could yet affect views not just of immigration, but of freedom of movement and globalization more generally.
The social safety net
Could the coronavirus crisis — and the sheer scale of the economic devastation it has wreaked — also lead to a reappraisal of the need for a stronger social safety net in general?
The fact that the nation is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime shock suggests to some people that sizable changes could be made.
There are also new questions about unemployment benefits and whether some states lack the infrastructure to get such assistance promptly to those who need it.
But many experts are skeptical that even such a major crisis will fundamentally alter how most Americans view the social compact.
Joshua Clinton, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, recently told CNBC: “There might be a slight shift, but I don’t think that you’ll see a grand shift in how people think about the structure of the state and the relationship of the state to their own lives.”
Political campaigning
One of the most obvious political impacts of the coronavirus has been on the nature of campaigning.
With mass rallies out of the question, candidates and campaigns have had to think about other ways to reach voters.
The Democratic National Convention has already been pushed back from its originally scheduled date in mid-July to a month later. Trump has insisted the equivalent Republican event will go on as planned the following week.
It is clear that the crisis will have a profound effect on this year’s presidential campaign.
But it is harder to imagine other changes — like a shift to virtual campaigning — sticking for good and becoming the norm in future election cycles.
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
