NP View on reopening the economy: Provinces must chart their own course – National Post

After seven weeks of lockdown, Canadians finally have a glimmer of hope that life will soon transition to some semblance of normality. Numerous provinces have released their plans to reopen parts of their economies over the past week or so. But the amount of freedom Canadians will regain, and when, will be decidedly unequal — and that’s exactly the way it should be. In line with local conditions, provinces must chart their own path.

Last week, Saskatchewan became the first province to announce plans for a staged reopening of its economy. Starting Monday, previously restricted medical services — such as dentists, optometrists and chiropractors — will resume and Saskatchewanians will be allowed to engage in “low-risk” outdoor activities, such as fishing and boating. Neighbouring Alberta and Manitoba will allow non-emergency surgeries and other health services to reopen Monday, as well. Though in Manitoba, retailers, including hairdressers, and restaurants will also be allowed to open their doors, along with campgrounds, museums and libraries.

In Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick started loosening its restrictions on April 24, allowing outdoor activities such as golfing and fishing. It is also permitting universities to resume, and letting families interact with one other household. Likewise, Prince Edward Island began lifting some of its restrictions on May 1. And in Central Canada, Quebec, which has been hardest hit by this pandemic, announced the country’s most ambitious reopening plans. On May 11, elementary schools and daycare centres in much of the province will welcome back children. Starting Monday, many stores will be allowed to open and, over the next couple weeks, nearly half a million people will return to their jobs in retail, manufacturing and construction. Travel restrictions will also be relaxed. (Ontario released its plan, as well, though it lacks any specific dates, as the province watches for clearer indications that the epidemic is being brought under control.)

Clearly, the “new normal” will look very different, and the recovery will move faster in some places than in others. But given that many of the provinces have had vastly different experiences so far, it makes sense.

Saskatchewan, with a population of around 1.2 million, has fared better than most, with fewer than 400 cases, 75 per cent of which have recovered. Quebec has nearly twice the population of British Columbia, but 13 times the number of cases. And Alberta is only slightly smaller than B.C., but has more than double the number of cases.

From the beginning of this crisis, Canada, like many other countries, has come under criticism for its piecemeal response to the pandemic. Countries with unitary systems of government, like New Zealand, are better able to formulate a national response to an emergency than federations, like Canada and the United States. Or so the argument goes.

While there are undoubtedly benefits to national leadership and a unified response, and there is obviously room for improvement with critical data collection and sharing among Canadian governments (a long-standing problem), Canada’s vast geography necessitates the need for strong local governments. The same disparities do not exist in a small country like New Zealand, which could fit inside Newfoundland and Labrador with room to spare. And the advantage of 10 provinces coming up with 10 distinct reopening strategies is that it will allow us to see what is working and what is not.

Thankfully, provincial politicians seem to recognize that their plans have to be flexible, and they would be wise to adapt them based on the experiences of others. If, for example, we start seeing large outbreaks emanating from Quebec schools, the province’s director of public health acknowledges that they will have to “reverse course.” That would also be a warning to the rest of Canada that maybe reopening schools at this time is not such a good idea.

Quebec is unique because — unlike New Brunswick, which, as of Thursday reported its 12th consecutive day of no new cases — it has fared the worst and is reopening the fastest. Speaking in the U.S. context, Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiologist, told CNN that states should not be lifting restrictions until they have fewer new cases than when the lockdowns went into place. On March 13, when Quebec’s first emergency order took effect, it reported four new cases; on April 29, it had 837. Quebec’s efforts will therefore be watched carefully. All Canadians will wish them well, of course, and if things proceed smoothly, the other provinces can follow Quebec’s lead. Conversely, of course, should the Quebec experiment prove a costly failure, that, too, will be useful to know.

Residents will not be forced to engage in activities that they feel are too risky, and along with questions about the health consequences of these reopening plans, there are also questions about the level of risk that people are willing to assume. Just because someone is legally allowed to get a massage in Saskatchewan on May 19 doesn’t mean many people are going to do so. And just because Quebec schools are open doesn’t mean parents will send their children.

But the recovery must start somewhere. And Canada’s federal structure may prove an advantage in finding that path forward.