Economy

4 days at work, 10 days in lockdown would restart economy amid fears of COVID-19 resurgence, says economist – CBC.ca

Published

4 years ago

May 15, 2020

Researchers in Israel have formulated a new workweek model that they say would allow workers to return to offices, but help mitigate a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.

The 10-4 plan entails a four-day workweek followed by 10 days in quarantine, which Eran Yashiv, a professor of economics at Tel Aviv University and London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics, says is contingent on COVID-19’s perceived window of infectiousness.

The model hinges on research conducted by his collaborators — professors Uri Alon and Ron Milo at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel — which estimates that a patient is not contagious to others for “three days, possibly longer” after they are infected, he said. Models created by the researchers predict that the two-week cycle could reduce the virus’s reproduction number to below one. The research has not yet been peer reviewed.

According to their theory, even if someone contracted COVID-19 during their four days at work, they would be back in lockdown before they became highly infectious, and stay there potentially long enough for the symptoms to dissipate, Yashiv told The Current’s Matt Galloway. Current Canadian guidelines mandate at least 14 days in self-isolation for anyone showing COVID-19 symptoms.

“This enables four normal days, in fact, more than normal — you can work longer hours during those four days that you’re out, you can also do shopping,” Yashiv said.

Economics professor Eran Yashiv, left, worked with professors Ron Milo and Uri Alon to develop the 10-4 model of returning to workplaces part-time. (Submitted by Eran Yashiv)

Yashiv and his collaborators intend the model to be “a more steady path” to getting people back to work.

He says it is not meant to be “the new normal,” but a stopgap that helps reduce the risk of community transmission, allowing workers to return to work “without living in this fear that ‘Well, maybe there’ll be a resurgence and we’ll be called back to lockdown.'”

Yashiv’s team used epidemiological and macroeconomic models to see what effect the scheme could have on Israel’s economy. The results showed unemployment would rise up to 32 percentage points under Israel’s lockdown scenarios, but only up to 21 percentage points under the 10-4 scheme, he said.

Schools in Austria are adopting a similar model when students return on Monday — with students split into two groups. One group attends class Monday to Wednesday, the second group attends Thursday to Friday, and they swap the following week.

Yashiv noted some companies, including Mastercard in New York, are also exploring the idea.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is asked by CBC’s Tom Parry what happens if the COVID-19 virus never goes away. 1:51

In Canada, some provinces have begun to revive their economies and reopen schools and businesses as the number of cases fall or even off, but there is no clear indication of when the wider workforce could return to normal, and experts have warned it will be slow and gradual.

Erin Bromage, an associate professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, says the 10-4 plan is a “really interesting approach.”

“It’s working with the biology to try to come up with a feasible way to get back to work,” he told Galloway.

But he warned of a risk in the plan’s reliance on average timeframes for infection and symptoms showing up.

“Some people show symptoms as soon as a day after being exposed and others are much longer,” he said.

“There’s a risk, but you know, is there a better plan at this stage? I’m not really sure.”

Plan divides population into two groups

As part of the 10-4 scheme, participants would be divided into two groups, said Yashiv. One group would work four days the first week, and the second group could work four days the next (while the first group is waiting out their 10 lockdown days).

Under the 10-4 scheme, those able to work from home during their 10 days in lockdown could still do so. (Bernadett Szabo/Reuters)

If it’s possible to work from home during the subsequent 10 lockdown days, you can, Yashiv said.

But anyone showing signs of the virus would be removed from the scheme until they recovered, and subject to a country’s existing quarantine measures, including self-isolation and physical distancing.

Yashiv said the plan would help stimulate consumer spending, as “firms can plan their production patterns, and households can plan their consumption patterns if they know this is a regular, predictable schedule.”

He added that the 10-4 scheme can be applied at any level, from a business to an entire country.

If used at a company level, management or human resources can designate people “according to the jobs they carry out, their function in the firm or the institution, and try to get a balance over the two different groups,” he said.

If applied across an entire city or even country, the two groups could be divided by household, and designated by a colour scheme, he said. Police checks for designated colour IDs could make sure no one was breaking lockdown on a week their colour group was meant to be indoors, Yashiv added.

Some countries are looking at using so-called immunity passports as a way to help end COVID-19 lockdowns. 1:53

Some experts have suggested people who recover from the virus could be given “immunity passports” allowing them to leave lockdown, but there are concerns that not enough is known about the antibodies and the extent of protection.

Yashiv pointed out that the 10-4 scheme is “not predicated on testing people,” or making distinctions between the two broad groups.

He acknowledged that enforcing lockdown would be key to the plan’s success, but pointed to countries that have already been through weeks of strict enforcement as examples of public willingness to co-operate.

“I agree that it may be tempting to go out once you are partially released from lockdown, but the whole thing should be compared to complete lockdown — that’s the alternative that we are comparing to,” he told Galloway.

“You need that level of control, not more strict, but obviously not more lax than that.”

Written by Padraig Moran. Produced by Joana Draghici.

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

Published

8 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

8 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

Published

22 hours ago

September 18, 2024

Anne Joseph

VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

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