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Economy

China central bank should shun risky bond buying as economy improves: adviser – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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BEIJING (Reuters) – The People’s Bank of China should avoid buying special treasury bonds as such a move could fuel inflation risks and asset bubbles and lead to depreciation of the yuan currency, central bank policy adviser Ma Jun said in remarks published on Sunday.

China’s leaders have pledged to take more steps to support the virus-ravaged economy, prompting a heated debate among economists and advisers over whether the central bank should monetize its fiscal deficit through quantitative easing.

“Although the epidemic has caused a short-term impact on China’s economy and fiscal revenue and expenditure, the economic recovery momentum has been quite obvious since the second quarter, and fiscal revenue and expenditure will gradually improve,” the official Financial News quoted Ma as saying.

Top leaders have pledged to raise the annual budget deficit ratio, issue more local government special bonds and what would be the first special treasury bonds since 2007 in order to help spur economic growth, but few details have been made public.

The amounts of special treasury bonds and local government special bonds issued this year could not be too big, and they could be handled by the existing policy framework, Ma said.

China’s central bank could further cut banks’ reserve requirement ratios or provide liquidity via some mechanism to support their purchases of new treasury bonds, Ma said.

If the central bank is forced to provide large-scale financing for the deficit, it would lead to depreciation of the yuan and inflation risks or asset bubbles, especially in real estate, Ma said, pointing to experiences in some countries.

China’s credit rating could also suffer if the deficit monetization’ mechanism is established, which could encourage excessive government borrowings, he said.

Chinese law still bans the central bank from buying government bonds.

(Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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