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Oil Climbs As Fears Of Negative Prices Fade – OilPrice.com

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Oil Climbs As Fears Of Negative Prices Fade | OilPrice.com

Alex Kimani

Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com. 

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Trader anxiety has earned a reprieve, with oil markets dodging one of many bullets after a key U.S. benchmark oil futures contract avoided a repeat of the April fiasco that saw oil futures land in negative territory.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices settled higher on Tuesday, finishing the day in backwardation and allaying fears that oil prices could slip into negative territory once again.

The June WTI Nymex contract finished higher than the front-month July contract, marking the first time in months that the market shifted from contango to backwardation. 

The WTI June contract, which expired at the end of the session, was settled at $32.50/barrel vs. $31.96 for the July contract after gaining 8.1% on Monday and another 2.1% on Tuesday. 

Meanwhile, the July contract, which is the most actively traded, rallied 7.2% on Monday and 1% on Tuesday.

The developments are a welcome bullish signal that the formidable headwinds of a massive supply glut, lackluster demand, and limited storage facing the crude oil markets could be easing.

Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, has told MarketWatch that the move to backwardation shows that “… there’s strong demand for physical crude as well as available storage to take delivery”.

Source: CME Group

Market Rebound

The CFTC recently fired a warning at traders, clearinghouses, and brokers that oil prices could slip into negative territory again. The historical event that happened in April was triggered mainly due to a lack of storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, where U.S. Commodity Funds, LLC (USCF), provider of the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSEARCA: USO) fund, was supposed to take physical delivery of crude. 

new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global demand for crude in April fell a staggering 29 mb/d, the biggest one-month drop in the history of the market. Related: Natural Gas Drillers Face Price Meltdown As Storage Fills Fast

Thankfully, the considerable production cuts by OPEC+ and independent producers in the U.S. and other nations appear to be working to help return the situation to normal.

The agreed cuts of 9.7 mb/d by OPEC and Russia kicked in in May while IOCs in the U.S. have been cutting production much faster than expected, remaining on course to cut ~1.7 mb/d by the end of June. Crude production from the United States’ seven major shale formations is expected to fall by a record 197K bbl/day in June to 7.82M bbl/day, marking the lowest level since August 2018. 

On Monday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 4.84M barrels of crude for the week ending May 15, effectively snapping a 6-week streak of consecutive builds.

The natural gas situation is also steadily improving, with the EIA forecasting that U.S. natural gas output is set to fall for a 7th straight month to 81.5B cf/day in June, or nearly 800M cf/day below the May forecast. Meanwhile, there’s a slow but steady rebound in energy and fuel demand across the globe as economies gradually ease their Covid-19 restrictions.

And it all seems to be paying off.

The energy sector has topped the U.S. market leaderboard with energy equities gaining 61% since their March 23 lows thanks to crude prices posting two months of continuous gains.

According to Phil Flynn at Price Futures via MarketWatch, “Pent up demand, stimulus and a historic production cutback is unleashing economic optimism and real oil demand.”

Source: CNN Money

Out of Danger?

Does all this mean the oil market is now out of danger? Yes, and no.

First off, negative oil prices do not appear to be an immediate danger. That’s the case because USO, the world’s largest oil fund, recently changed its modus operandi by moving most of its allocations from the front month to other months. 

For instance, instead of having all its funds in the July 2020 contract, USO has now allocated only 15% of its money to the July contract; 15% for August, 15% for September and 15% for the October contract while allocating 5%, 25% and 10% for the November, December, and January 2021 contracts, respectively. 

This rebranding removes a lot of the short-term risks, which is important when the markets are as volatile as they are right now.

That said, the overall market trajectory will continue to be dictated by the forces of supply and demand.

It’s quite worrying that some U.S. shale producers could be about to undo the good work, with Bloomberg reporting that as much as 25% of oil volumes that feed Energy Transfer’s pipe network in the Permian Basin’s Midland region that had been shut have been turned right back on. As Bloomberg’s oil strategist, Julian Lee, cautioned, easing the production cuts too soon could trigger a second oil price collapse.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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