(Bloomberg) — Investors in the world’s biggest bond market are starting to see what the other side of America’s worst-ever economic downturn could mean for their portfolios.
With more U.S. regions gradually reopening and investor sentiment picking up, the Treasuries yield curve from 5 to 30 years ended May close to the steepest since the height of the virus-fueled market panic more than two months ago.
Traders are betting short-to-medium term rates will be anchored by Federal Reserve stimulus, including potential steps such as capping yields. Meanwhile, they see scope for higher longer-maturity yields amid signs that the most dire economic reports may soon be in the rear-view mirror. Data suggesting the labor market was beginning to rebound last month could cushion the blow from this week’s labor report, which is forecast to show the highest jobless rate since the Great Depression.
“We are going to get the last of the big job-shedding numbers, and that will be important context to help investors judge the depth of the contraction, and what the process of coming out of it will look like,” said Ian Lyngen, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “The steepening trade is going to be thematic over the course of the next 12 to 18 months.”
The gap between 5- and 30-year yields surged to end last week at 110 basis points, touching the widest since mid-March. Benchmark 10-year yields were barely changed on the week, ending at around 0.65%.
Last week delivered a reminder of what could limit the upside in yields, with U.S. President Donald Trump intensifying his confrontation with China on Friday. An escalation of tensions between the world’s two biggest economies threatens to curb demand for risky assets and bolster the appetite for Treasuries.
There’s also the obvious uncertainty over the coronavirus pandemic’s trajectory and the risk of a second wave of infections. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Friday that a full economic recovery “will really depend on people being confident that it’s safe to go out.”
But green shoots are emerging. Continuing jobless claims fell in the most recent week, the first decline during the pandemic. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the unemployment rate could fall below 10% by December. Data this week are forecast to show it reached 19.6% in May, a level unseen since the Depression.
Even so, bond strategists are coalescing round the view that the Fed later this year will implement a policy of yield-curve control — partly as a way to reinforce guidance that it will keep its main policy rate low for an extended period. The consensus expectation revolves around capping yields on maturities from two to five years.
Although the Fed is about to slow its Treasuries buying again, investors will get a reprieve on the issuance front this week, with only bills on the auction docket. So any move toward further steepening in the days ahead could be telling.
“It would signal the curve may be steepening more so for economic reasons,” said Chris Ahrens, a strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “The long end seems to be pricing that we are getting to the worst of the bottoming of the economy.”
What to Watch
Friday’s release of May jobs data is the focus for the economic calendar:
June 1: Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI; construction spending; ISM manufacturing
June 2: Wards vehicle sales
June 3: MBA mortgage applications; ADP employment; Markit U.S. services PMI; factory orders; durable goods; ISM non-manufacturing
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
