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UK economy

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The 2010s saw living standards in the UK grow at their slowest rate since the second world war, even though the economy enjoyed uninterrupted expansion and employment grew at a record rate.

The jobs bonanza — and the economy’s performance as a whole — was undermined by weak productivity, which grew at its slowest level in 60 years. Economists warn this is the key challenge facing Boris Johnson’s government as the new decade begins.

Here are four key charts that illustrate the UK economy in the 2010s.

Slow growth in living standards

Growth in per capita output is the biggest driver of increased living standards, but in the UK over the past 10 years it averaged less than half the rate of the postwar period.

According to calculations based on IMF estimates, UK per capita output grew at an annual average of 1.1 per cent in the last decade. This is slightly below the rate of the 2000s, when output was dragged down by the financial crisis.

Uninterrupted but sluggish economic growth

The UK economy expanded every single year in the last decade — one of only three contraction-free decades since the 1700s (the others were the 1950s and the 1960s), according to data from the Bank of England. The 2010s also marked the first decade since the second world war without a recession — defined as two quarters of negative growth.

Line chart of Real GDP, rebased showing In the last decade, UK economic growth has been steady but sluggish

However, while the UK enjoyed uninterrupted economic growth, it was also slow, adding up to an annual average of 1.8 per cent. This is about the same rate as in the previous decade, when average growth was depressed by a 4.2 per cent contraction due to the financial crisis in 2009. The rate of GDP growth in the 2010s was also far below the overall average of 2.4 per cent in the 40 years to 1990.

However, Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The economy’s resilience is remarkable in light of the scale of fiscal tightening since 2010, the eurozone’s debt crisis and the shock of the Brexit vote. The 2020s might be choppier.”

A decade of jobs growth

The UK experienced a jobs boom in the 2010s, with employment growing at the fastest rate of any decade since at least the 1950s.

Column chart of Compound average annual per cent change showing UK employment has grown over the past decade

IMF estimates show that in 2019 there were about 3.7m additional workers than in 2009, corresponding to an annual average growth rate of 1.2 per cent. This is the fastest increase of any decade since 1950.

Along with the increase in jobs, the number of hours worked also rose at the fastest rate of any of the previous six decades.

But economists warn that the employment boom hides poor quality jobs and is unlikely to be sustainable.

“Superficially, employment figures look good,” said Andrew Simms, co-director of the New Weather Institute at the University of Sussex. “But these hide a range of dynamics: the precarious nature of the current jobs market, including insecure contracts and in-work poverty.” Large regional disparities were also apparent, he said.

Productivity growth slowed to a crawl

The UK’s sluggish economic expansion in the 2010s was largely the result of more people being in work, rather than greater efficiency, resulting in the slowest productivity growth of any decade since the second world war.

Column chart of Compound average annual per cent change showing UK productivity growth has slowed to a crawl

According to the IMF forecast for 2019, the output per person employed in the UK grew at an annual rate of 0.6 per cent in the 2010s, compared with 1.1 per cent in the previous decade and more than 2 per cent in any other post world war decade.

Poor productivity growth undermines employers’ ability to pay there workers more, which would allow living standards to rise.

“For a sustainable expansion we need productivity growth to return,” said Richard Davies, fellow at the London School of Economics. “Here the story will not change in 2020 and the most important economic puzzle of our time — the flatlining of output per hour for over a decade — will remain the government’s key challenge.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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