Canada’s immigration has slowed due to the pandemic, at least for a few months. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows a steep decline in the number of new permanent residents in April. The drop is one of the sharpest in recent history, with large real estate markets most impacted.
Fewer Permanent Residents Admitted To Canada
The pandemic didn’t quite halt new permanent residents, but it came pretty close over the past few months. Canada saw just 4,140 permanent residents admitted in April, down 78% from the month before. This is an 85% decrease compared to the same month last year. The drop over the past few months has put Canada significantly behind its target.
Canadian Permanent Resident Admissions
The monthly number of permanent residents admitted to Canada.
Source: IRCC, Better Dwelling.
The year to date (YTD) numbers aren’t quite as bad, but are down significantly from last year. In the first four months there were 73,920 newly admitted permanent residents, down 20% from last year. The sharp decline is due almost entirely to a drop in March and April numbers. As you may have guessed, some real estate markets will be impacted more than others with this shift.
Toronto Sees 84% Fewer Permanent Residents In April
Newly admitted permanent residents moving to Toronto saw a big drop. There were just 1,520 in April, down 77% from a month before. This is an 84% decline compared to the same month last year. For the month of April, this movement is pretty much in line with the national average.
Canadian Permanent Resident Admissions Change
The year-over-year percent change in monthly permanent residents admitted to Canada.
Source: IRCC, Better Dwelling.
The YTD numbers also show a substantial decline for the first third of the year. Toronto added 26,080 new permanent residents April YTD, down 22% compared to the same period last year. This is a very big drop due entirely to declines in March and April, with the other two months higher than last year. The decline is inline with the national average.
Vancouver Sees 91% Fewer Permanent Residents In April
Just a handful of permanent residents settled in Vancouver in the most recent month of data. The region saw 270 new permanent residents in April, down 88% from a month before. This works out to a 91% decline compared to the same month last year. For those keeping track, that’s worse than the national average.
Canadian Permanent Resident Admissions By Market
The monthly number of permanent residents admitted to Canada, , by major real estate market.
Source: IRCC, Better Dwelling.
When looking at YTD numbers, Vancouver is actually seeing smaller declines than most regions. There were 9,370 new permanent residents in April YTD, down 6.6% from last year. This is one of the smallest declines for the first third of the year, and is due to much higher growth in January and February than the rest of the country.
Montreal Sees 94% Fewer Permanent Residents In April
Montreal is seeing one of the biggest declines of any major city across Canada. The region saw just 165 new permanent residents in April, down 89% from a month before. This works out to a decline of 94% when compared to the same month last year. This is worse than the national average, but generally Montreal has been seeing a decline of permanent residents over the past year.
Canadian Permanent Resident Admissions Change By Market
The year-over-year percent change in monthly permanent residents admitted to Canada, by major real estate market.
Source: IRCC, Better Dwelling.
Montreal’s YTD permanent resident numbers show one of the biggest declines in the country. The region added 6,615 new permanent residents this year ending in April, down 31% compared to the same period last year. This is a much bigger decline than the national average. Once again, these numbers have been declining since last year. The pandemic accelerated these declines.
Immigration is cyclical, and tends to move with employment trends. National Bank of Canada has even forecasted a decline later this year. However, the decline we’re currently seeing is likely due to the direct impact of the pandemic. The additional forecasted declines aren’t expected to arrive until later this year, or early next year.
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