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Bank of Canada sees gradual recovery after initial bounceback – BNN

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The Bank of Canada is taking a more cautious tone on the recovery, with expectations for a bumpy and gradual road toward full recuperation.

While the central bank is seeing evidence of a quick, initial bounceback in economic activity as provinces reopen, the second stage of recovery will be more “prolonged and uneven,” Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said in a speech to the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce.

“The uncertainty around this recuperation stage is extraordinary and points toward a recovery that will be gradual and long-lasting as this uncertainty slowly dissipates and household confidence is restored,” Schembri said in the remarks delivered by video-conference. “In the meantime, households are likely to remain cautious in their spending behaviour as they adjust to a new ‘post-pandemic’ normal.”

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It’s also unclear how consumer spending patterns may change in the future. During the pandemic, consumers increasingly turned toward online food shopping and delivery. Schembri said cautious spending is likely to continue until a vaccine becomes available. As a result of less money flow, employment and income will take time to recover fully.

The willingness of Canadians to go out and spend money is going to depend on what the employment, income and confidence situation is, as well as the possibility of future COVID-19 outbreaks, he said.

Recent data show hopeful signs for the labor market as job postings have picked up and employment rose. Still, Schembri said there are more persistent disruptions in the job market that could slow the recover in the second phase such as permanent layoffs among those in the already struggling oil-producing regions. He also noted that women working in service industries have been disproportionately affected by the layoffs and that they are also more likely to face a lack of childcare.

In the speech, Schembri expressed optimism that Canada avoided the worst of the economic fallout from COVID-19. Consumer confidence data, motor vehicle sales and housing activity in May have all improved from April.

“These early indicators suggest that the trough in economic activity and household spending occurred in April and that the more severe outcome depicted in our April Monetary Policy Report has been avoided,” he said. “Fiscal and monetary policy actions have underpinned this nascent rebound in demand.”

The federal government’s support programs have helped to buffer some of the income losses felt by millions of Canadians. The federal aid is expected to help bolster consumer spending during the second phase of the recovery. Schembri noted recent data has also shown a rise in the savings rate, which indicates there will be pent up demand when consumers begin to feel comfortable going out and spending money.

The provinces have reopened in staggered time frames which makes it difficult for the bank to estimate the overall recovery path. Ontario, for example has pursued a more gradual reopening than Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“We expect that the recovery will vary by region because containment measures are being lifted at different times across Canada,” he said. “This staggered reopening of establishments and manufacturing facilities across the country adds an additional layer of uncertainty in estimating the path of the recovery in overall household spending.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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