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Major Canadian Real Estate Markets That Reopened See Inventory Explode Higher – Better Dwelling

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The Canadian real estate market is starting to see sellers return, especially in post-lockdown regions. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell across Canada in May. The entire drop was due to inventory rising much faster than sales, in regions where the lockdown has been mostly lifted.

Sales To New Listings Ratio (SNLR)

Analyzing sales or listings by itself gives important macroeconomic information. It doesn’t tell anyone a lot about how hot or cold the market is. Instead, you need to compare the number of new listings hitting the market, in contrast to the number of units sold. That’s what the sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) is – the ratio of sales, in contrast to listings.

By using the SNLR, we can get an idea of how quickly inventory is being replenished. The higher the ratio, the more pressure on prices to rise. The lower the ratio, the more pressure on prices to fall. The general rule is between 40 and 60 percent, the market is considered balanced. Above that, prices are expected to rise, and below that they’re expected to fall.

An important exception to this rule is when the ratio is moving quickly. Fast rising ratios tend to push prices higher, even if they’re in a buyer’s market. Fast falling ratios can push prices lower, even in a seller’s market. Where a market is, is equally as important as where a market is heading. At least when you filter for enthusiasm.

The Economy Is Reopening, And Pressure Is Being Relieved Across Canada

Economists expected more inventory as lockdowns lifted, and they were correct. The seasonally adjusted SNLR for Canada fell to 58.8% in May, down 4.5% from the previous month. Generally speaking, economies locked down are seeing more buyers than sellers. Regions with lockdowns lifted, are seeing new listings surge faster than buyers.

Sales To New Listings Ratio

The seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio in select Canadian residential real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Southern Ontario Real Estate Leads The Tightening of Inventory

Southern Ontario leads the country in sales accelerating faster than new inventory. Hamilton saw the biggest jump to 81.3% in May, up 20.8% from a month before. Kitchener follows with a SNLR of 76.2%, up 19.4% from the month before. Quebec City is in third with 80.4%, up 17.1% from last year. Worth a mention is Southern Ontario remains one of the most locked down economic regions in Canada.

Sales To New Listings Ratio Change

The monthly percent change in the seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio selected Canadian residential real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Real Estate Markets With Looser Restrictions See Inventory Jump

Markets with the most restrictive measures lifted in May are seeing inventory rise. The SNLR for Halifax is the fastest falling at 64.7% in May, down 39.8% from the month before. Montreal’s ratio fell to 62.4%, down 36.4% from a month before. Fraser Valley was in third with 38.8%, down 14.5% from a month before.

Notably absent from either extremes are Toronto and Vancouver, which land in the middle. Toronto’s SNLR increased to 57.9% in May, up 6.5% from a month before. Vancouver’s fell to 40.1%, down 9.6% from a month before. It’s worth a note that Toronto is one of the last economies to reopen, and Vancouver was one of those least impacted.

When the lockdown was across Canada, the SNLRs jumped – even hitting over 100% in some markets. Economists, including four bank economists, are expecting inventory to outstrip buyers as markets reopen. One bank is forecasting the rise in Montreal, is the path major markets will follow. Pre-pandemic, it was arguably the hottest market in Canada, with soaring sales. After the lockdown was lifted, new inventory was almost 3x the amount seen during the lockdown.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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