The Halifax Partnership has released its annual Halifax Index for 2020, which examines six key areas of city life in comparison with other cities.
“I was looking forward to this year but this COVID thing kind of threw a wrench into the works,” says Ian Munro, chief economist with Halifax Partnership, the city’s economic development organization.
Leading up to March, Halifax’s economy was hitting new highs and breaking records in several areas.
“We’ve had year-on-year growth many years in a row for immigration, and as of two or three years ago Nova Scotia finally became, for the first time since the mid-1980s, a net importer of young people,” Munro tells NEWS 95.7’s The Todd Veinotte Show.
In 2019, the municipality welcomed 10,000 new residents, many of whom were in the target age range of their 20s and 30s. These immigrants, Canada and the world, we’re finally beginning to make up for Nova Scotia’s aging population.
“The projections were that we were going to be stagnant if not negative in terms of population growth, looking out into the long term, with a much higher share of people in the much older age categories, therefore not in the workforce,” says Munro. “And when you consider the fact that also people in those age brackets tend to be higher consumers of expensive health care, we were looking at a demographic nightmare, really.”
But by the end of March, COVID began to close borders, and that immigration slowed, along with the economy. “It’s certainly going to put a stall on things,” says Munro.
Although there’s no Halifax-specific data yet on 2020 numbers since the Halifax Index uses last year’s data set, Munro says he expects a downturn.
“I’m quite sure that our population numbers and immigration numbers will be down for 2020 just because people kind of have to stay put during the present crisis,” he says.
The economist is hopeful that after COVID subsides the Halifax economic outlook could quickly get back to the record-breaking highs it saw last year.
“Given the trends, given all that we have to offer here, and given the fact that I think we may come out relatively looking even better than a lot of other jurisdictions once this is all over, I suspect that those numbers will get back to those trends, it’ll just take a bit of time to get back on track,” he says.
Munro says the Conference Board of Canada projects a 3.4 per cent decline in GDP this year, but it means 2021 will be even better, with a 5.9 per cent growth rate.
“Now that restrictions are being lifted and we’re a little more free to move around, you’ll see those bounce back,” he says. “You’re seeing more and more restaurants, bars, stores getting open, so people will go back into those places and get spending again.”
Source: – HalifaxToday.ca
