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Bank of Canada survey says business hiring plans remain muted – BNN

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Canadian business sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008-09 recession as sales slow and uncertainty about future growth remains elevated, according to a survey of executives released today by the Bank of Canada.

The Ottawa-based central bank polled businesses between May 12 and June 5 to gauge sentiment during the pandemic. The results show that even as provinces begin to reopen their economies, many businesses are still struggling with weak demand. Companies reported growing slack in capacity, easing price pressures and collapsing forward-sales expectations.

Results “suggest that business sentiment is strongly negative in all regions and sectors due to impacts from the COVID‑19 pandemic and the drop in oil prices,” the Bank of Canada said in a summary of its findings.

The composite gauge of sentiment declined to -7 which is the lowest reading since the financial crisis. Even though businesses have experienced a sharp drop in sentiment from the pandemic, many expect a recovery within the next 12 months. About half of firms anticipate that their sales will recover to pre-pandemic levels within the year.

Despite the plunge in sentiment, firms are overall less pessimistic than during the financial crisis. That’s due in part to government support buffering the economic fallout and the expectation for a fairly quick rebound in operations, according to the survey.

Since the survey was completed, provinces across Canada have moved forward with their reopening plans. In particular, the countries two largest provinces — Ontario and Quebec — have begun to allow more businesses to operate. This could result in an improvement in sentiment moving forward.

Still, “forward-looking sales indicators have collapsed” on expected weakness in domestic and foreign demand, the central bank said.

Key Insights

• Almost half of all Canadian businesses reported a decline in sales in the past 12 months because of the impact from COVID-19, lower energy prices and heightened uncertainty. Businesses continue to expect weak demand in the future with more firms expecting lower future sales growth in the next year.

• While millions of jobs were lost in March and April due to the pandemic-induced shutdowns, jobs have started to come back and the results of the survey reinforce the view that employers are looking to rehire.

• A majority of firms that recently laid off workers have plans to refill at least some of the positions in the next 12 months. However, many firms do not intend to increase their workforce partly due to weak expectations of future sales.

• More than half of firms expect their sales and employment levels to be near pre-pandemic levels within a year. On the flip side, just under half of businesses expect at most a partial recovery, or that their sales path is too uncertain to predict over the next year.

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• “Firms reported that, while capacity could resume quickly as the economy reopens and containment measures are lifted, the recovery in demand is expected to be more gradual.”

• The fiscal support from the federal government has helped buffer the drop in business sentiment; “Credit conditions have tightened significantly, but government measures are a helpful offset.”

• Half of exporters expect sales abroad to decrease over the next 12 months.

• Firms signalled a significant decrease in capital spending over the next 12 months, with the balance of opinion on investment intentions in machinery and equipment falling to a near-record low.

• The number of firms that reported they would have difficulties meeting an unexpected increase in demand has fallen sharply.

• The share of businesses reporting that major labour shortages has declined significantly, suggesting a “broad-based increase in labour market slack”

• Firms’ inflation expectations declined significantly to a near-record low.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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