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Why stock markets haven't 'decoupled' from the economy – BNN

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The gyrations of equity markets around the world have prompted observers to declare that stocks are suddenly divorced from the real economy.

In an op-ed for the Financial Times published Monday, economist Mohamed El-Erian warned against buying assets that have “stunningly decoupled” from reality.

According to Jay Ritter, economist and professor of corporate finances at the University of Florida, the idea that the two were ever correlated long-term is a fallacy. His research examines real stock returns and per capita GDP growth dating back to 1900.

“The surprising pattern is, in the long-run, [the relation between] economic growth on a per capita basis and stock returns — both inflation-adjusted — is essentially zero and it can even be negative,” he said in a phone interview.

Ritter is set to publish a third version of his academic paper Economic Growth and Equity Returns next month.

“China has outstanding economic growth but stock investors have not done great. Mexico has actually been a much better place to invest over the last 30 years,” he said.

Using a very long investment horizon, the country with the best returns over the last 120 years is South Africa. According to Ritter, “it’s something that nobody ever guesses.”

On one end of the spectrum, South African stocks have, on average, a low price-earnings (PE) ratio combined with “very high dividends” – and a faltering economy.

China, on the other hand, has seen strong economic growth over the last three decades yet its stock market participants haven’t benefited accordingly.

“The Chinese economy has grown by a massive amount but a lot of it has been [due to] more companies going public, investors pouring money in and buying new shares. Market cap has gone up but it’s not because the value of existing shares has gone up, it’s because more shares have been issued by more companies,” said Ritter.

In Credit Suisse’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020, which compiled the performance of global equities over the past 120 years, South Africa’s 7.1 per cent annualized real return takes the top spot. Second place goes to the U.S. (6.5 per cent), followed by Australia (6.8 per cent), Sweden (6.0 per cent) and Canada (5.7 per cent).  

Countries that haven’t had stock markets for that long aren’t among the contenders in this list, but Ritter sees a familiar pattern even among emerging nations.

“A country’s economic growth is not something that determines stock returns. What matters is current price-earnings ratios and earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. A country can grow rapidly without companies’ EPS growing,” he said.

Key factors that contribute to economic growth include labour force participation, high personal savings rates and technological advances — which don’t necessarily drive corporate profits higher. Ritter’s research finds that technological change alone doesn’t boost a company’s bottom line unless the firm has a lasting monopoly, which is rare.

Government intervention is also a factor, and so is central banks’ stimulus which has kept interest rates low in advanced countries. Monetary policy has disproportionately helped corporate interests.

Additionally, companies that make up the stock market tend to be medium and large-sized, and dominated by a select group of industries (energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health care, financials, telecommunications, utilities, real estate and technology).

The COVID-19 pandemic has benefited tech firms, Ritter said. And lockdown restrictions were a boon to retailers that remained open and were deemed essential services, like Walmart Inc., while shutting rival businesses out.

“COVID has benefited companies that use technology, and big companies which are publicly traded, whereas a lot of restaurants are local, family-owned,” said Ritter. “My brother has a plumbing business and I don’t know of any plumbing business that’s listed in the stock market in the U.S. or Canada. His business is down 50 per cent from six months ago.”

Another reason equities and the economy are out of sync is the fact that stock markets are forward-looking but digesting data from the recent past, and moving based on performance versus expectations, according to Ritter. 

Although U.S. stocks are pricing in an expectation of future profitability, Ritter worries about what may be in store several business cycles from now.

“One thing that I’m concerned about is school closures and the effect on children,” he said. “Both education and social development are being affected and that’s something that will have long-term consequences that doesn’t necessarily show up in profits immediately.”

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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