MSPs are heading back to work at Holyrood while newly-elected MPs gear up to pass a Brexit deal at Westminster. After a tumultuous 2019, what does 2020 hold in store for Scottish politics?
Getting Brexit done
The first and most obvious result of the general election is that Boris Johnson’s promise to “get Brexit done” will become a reality on 31 January.
With a comfortable Conservative majority, Westminster deadlock over a withdrawal deal is a thing of the past – but that doesn’t mean Brexit is going away as an issue.
There’s still the small matter of agreeing a future relationship with the EU and laying the foundations for a trade deal – all inside an 11-month transition period.
Expect the familiar talk of no-deal cliff edges to continue through much of the year – in debate at Holyrood as well as Westminster, with much of the Brexit legislation set to cut across devolved areas.
The Scottish government are digging in over Holyrood’s consent for such bills, and will use every one of them to drive home a reminder of the 62% majority for Remain north of the border.
Holyrood’s budget
Normally at this time of year, Scottish Finance Secretary Derek Mackay would be locked in negotiations with opposition parties seeking support for his budget plans.
This year, there’s something missing – the budget. Mr Mackay had planned to announce it on 12 December, but instead found himself in a polling booth.
The UK government is yet to set out its plans – they are expected sometime in February or March – and this means Mr Mackay doesn’t know how much money he has to spend. The knock-on effect is that councils and health boards don’t know how much money they have to spend either.
By the time anyone finds out how much money they have, or need to raise, there will be very little time for debate, scrutiny or deal-making.
Holyrood’s budget process is meant to last months. The way things stand, it may have to be compressed into a matter of days.
The trial itself is entirely a matter for the justice system, not politics. But immediately after it ends, a series of inquiries will begin into how complaints against Mr Salmond were handled by the Scottish government.
The court is the only place where the substance of any complaints will be settled, but regardless of the outcome it will be far from the last word said about the matter.
The coming inquiries range from a government review of its botched internal investigation process – successfully challenged in court by Mr Salmond – a probe to establish whether Ms Sturgeon breached the ministerial code in her dealings with her predecessor, and a Holyrood inquiry into both.
The latter could potentially drag on for months, calling the first minister and her team of special advisors as witnesses in public committee hearings.
Elections
If you thought the big questions of leadership were settled on 12 December, think again. Many political party members are going to find themselves voting again in short order – for new leaders.
The Scottish Conservative leadership contest – left in deep freeze during the election campaign – has now begun in earnest.
Alongside the UK Labour leadership race, Scottish Labour have to find themselves a new deputy leader after Lesley Laird lost the position along with her seat on December 12.
In Scotland, there’s another national election coming around the corner too, in the shape of the 2021 Holyrood contest. Expect the various leadership pitches to play a big part in setting the scene for that race.
Gender Recognition reforms
Governments don’t often save up big reforms for the tail end of the parliamentary term, but Ms Sturgeon and her ministers still have one contentious domestic topic to wrestle with.
The government wants to reform the Gender Recognition Act to make it easier for people to change their legally recognised gender, saying the current system can be “traumatic and demeaning”.
However, the plan has come in for criticism from some SNP backbenchers, and the idea of allowing people to “self-identify” their gender has been the topic of fierce debate.
Ministers have put their plans out for a fresh consultation, saying there needs to be “maximum consensus” due to “valid concerns” – but remain committed to making changes.
The consultation is due back in March, and the government would have to move relatively swiftly after that to get legislation through parliament before the next election.
Indyref2
The Conservative majority at Westminster has largely settled the issue of Brexit. But with the SNP winning a landslide north of the border, the other constitutional battleground – independence – is very much alive.
There are two elements to this question. The first is the logistics of actually holding a ballot, with PM Boris Johnson so far refusing to agree the deal Ms Sturgeon wants.
Fingers in ears at Downing Street won’t help the SNP get a referendum in 2020, but it might help with the second element – winning a referendum.
Here, uncertainty remains Ms Sturgeon’s biggest problem.
Even with the fog of Brexit befuddlement clearing, there are still question marks over how it will impact on the public mood. Ms Sturgeon will be hoping it could provide the boost needed to get the Yes camp over the line, but is she willing to gamble on it now, with the polls finely poised?
WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.
The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.
Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.
The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.
A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.
“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.
The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.
“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”
Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.
“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.
Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.
His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.
Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.
It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.
“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.
When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”
In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.
“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.
The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.
Singh called it a “big victory.”
“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.
“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”
New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.
Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.
The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona.
The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.
With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.
Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
Meanwhile in the byelection race in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Québécois remained locked in an extremely tight three-way race as the results trickled in slowly.
The Liberal stronghold riding had a record 91 names on the ballot, and the results aren’t expected until the early hours of the morning.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
