COVID-19’s lethality was always going to be a question for epidemiologists. But six months after the deadly coronavirus first gained international attention, politics has muddied the answer.
The two main agencies tracking the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization, have access to the same raw data, yet disagree on the interpretation for determining the IFR, or infection fatality rate. To calculate IFR, scientists consider not only known infections, but also computer modelling to estimate undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases.
“We won’t know the true fatality of this disease until it is all said and done,” says University of Ottawa epidemiologist Dr. Raywat Deonandan.
In January, the WHO predicted COVID-19’s IFR would be 3.4 per cent, meaning three or four people out of every 100 infected would die. By comparison, the Spanish flu, which resulted in an estimated 50 million dead, had an IFR of two per cent.
But with months of updated COVID-19 statistics to consider, the CDC and WHO have released new estimates, with the CDC putting COVID-19’s IFR at .65 per cent, much lower than the WHO’s prediction of one per cent.
“(One per cent) doesn’t sound like a big number,” says Deonandan. “That’s a big number. So a pretty bad case of the flu would give us an IFR about .1 per cent, so .5 per cent is five times bigger than that. And when you scale this up to the population levels, we’re looking at hundreds of thousands of people dead, as we know now. So this is a deadly disease.”
But those aren’t the only numbers being used to fill the COVID-19 narrative, much to the dismay of the top infectious disease expert in the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared exasperated when asked by reporters about the factually incorrect White House claim that the U.S. death rate was inflated because the U.S. tested more than other countries.
The U.S. (155,000 tests per million) has tested fewer people per million than Russia (178,000), the U.K. (205,000) and Israel (166,000), among others, according to the website Worldometer. Canada has tested 97,000 per million.
1:40 Coronavirus: Parts of the U.S. approaching more grim milestones as COVID-19 numbers climb
Coronavirus: Parts of the U.S. approaching more grim milestones as COVID-19 numbers climb
“It’s a false narrative to get caught up in lower death rates,” says Fauci.
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Another metric used is the case fatality rate (CFR), which is the proportion of people who die from a disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed. But epidemiologists say the CFR can be misleading if a country either tests too much or too little. The quality of health care is also a factor.
And then there’s deaths per million, a metric that relies entirely on how diligent a specific country is in reporting deaths. Based on numbers compiled by Worldometer, Belgium is far and away the worst country for COVID-19 deaths with 846 per million, followed by the U.K. (669) and Spain (608). The U.S. (435) and Canada (235) are further down the list.
But it’s the comparison with India that shows how flawed “deaths per million” truly is. While India has the third most cases in the world, it has only reported 21 deaths per million.
“I think the comparisons across countries can be problematic in the sense that nobody wants to be the worst-performing country,” says epidemiologist Ashleigh Tuite. “And so there is potentially a desire to not necessarily count things very well and not be the country who has the most deaths.”
India’s death registration system has been overwhelmed with the pandemic. Only those who previously tested positive for COVID-19 are included in the death toll. By contrast, authorities in Belgium have been criticized for being far too liberal in how they count the number of people who die as a result of the virus, leading to the country’s tourism minister to publicly worry that they were scaring off future tourists.
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“But then (Belgium) became a news story,” says Tuite, “because why did they have such high fatality in their population? And so there’s certainly a bit of a disincentive to count and count well. And so I think transparency, particularly during a pandemic, is incredibly important. But there are absolutely disincentives to being transparent because you can be held up for criticism.”
There have been over 15.5 million COVID-19 cases reported in the world so far with over 630,000 deaths, both of which continue to rise.
1:40 Coronavirus: Parts of the U.S. approaching more grim milestones as COVID-19 numbers climb
Coronavirus: Parts of the U.S. approaching more grim milestones as COVID-19 numbers climb
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
