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Crude Oil Outlook: OPEC+ Curbs Supply Cut as GDP Growth Recovers – DailyFX

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CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST: OPEC+ SUPPLY INCREASE ON TAP AS GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDS FROM Q2 GDP GROWTH IMPLOSION

  • Crude oil prices have climbed with risk assets as market sentiment and economic activity rebound from the coronavirus lockdown
  • Saudi Arabia and Russia solidified an agreement to begin unwinding historic OPEC+ supply cuts as world oil demand snaps back
  • 2Q-2020 GDP growth rates are due from several advanced economies this coming week amid high-profile equity earnings reports and a FOMC decision

Crude oil price action has staged a monumental recovery since the commodity traded in negative territory this past April. The rally in oil prices over recent weeks looks largely on the back of two bullish fundamental drivers: an OPEC+ deal to slash supply combined with a welcomed rebound in global energy consumption.

WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE: DECEMBER 2019 – JULY 2020 (CHART 1)

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

WTI crude oil currently fluctuates around $41.00 per barrel measured by the front-month futures contract, but the advance has started to stall, and petroleum performance is still down about 32% since the start of January. Broadly speaking, lower crude oil prices stem from a whopping 9% plunge in world oil demand expected this year due to a screeching halt in economic activity amid the coronavirus lockdown.

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This has primarily contributed to a supply-demand imbalance of 9.8-million barrels per day penciled in by OPEC for 2Q-2020. Looking forward, however, the cartel of major oil producers have optimistic projections for world oil demand to recover during the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Both the IEA and EIA anticipate global oil demand to increase in the months ahead as well according to their respective monthly oil reports.

OPEC & ALLIES SET TO CURTAIL PRODUCTION CUTS AMID DEMAND RECOVERY (CHART 2)

Crude Oil Chart OPEC World Oil Demand V Shape Recovery

Chart Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Rising demand for crude oil has correspondingly enticed OPEC and its allies to begin reversing production cuts announced earlier this year that were aimed at absorbing excess market supply. This was indicated by OPEC+ delegates who backed an agreement solidified by Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase the group’s crude oil output by 2-million barrels per day starting next month.

Learn More – Global Commodities: Worldwide Commodity Imports & Exports (Interactive Tool)

The move looks to ease OPEC+ production cuts from 9.7-million barrels per day to 7.7-million barrels per day on net. As such, a bearish risk facing crude oil price action emerges with OPEC+ set to unwind prior supply cuts and relax oversight of standing output quotas. Another notable headwind looming over the direction of crude oil includes potential for the v-shaped recovery in global GDP growth to abate as the ‘liquidity high’ from unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures wears off.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES DUE TO REPORT STAGGERING GDP GROWTH RATE DECLINES (CHART 3)

Crude Oil Price Chart Forecast 2Q-2020 GDP Growth Report Coronavirus Lockdown

Chart Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

On that note, market participants may focus on second quarter GDP data releases due next week considering the elevated chance for volatility as this typically high-impact economic indicator crosses the wire. Despite the backward-looking nature of quarterly GDP reports, they can catalyze shifts in trader sentiment, particularly if actual numbers differ materially from forecast. To that end, GDP growth rates from the United States and Eurozone might garner notable attention. This is seeing that the US and EU are two of the world’s biggest economies and consumers of crude oil.

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Likewise, a swarm of equity earnings anticipated next week, not to mention the potential for coronavirus vaccine news, could cause fluctuations in risk appetite and crude oil price action as well. Two additional fundamental themes prudent traders may want to keep tabs on include rising jobless claims and escalating china tensions, which might steer crude oil prices lower if these bearish headwinds gain traction and fuel risk aversion.

Learn More – How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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