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How Canada’s first long-term coronavirus pandemic projections hold up today – Global News

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In early April, Canada’s public health agency first released estimates of how widely the novel coronavirus might spread in the country and how many people might die as a result.

Those projections, released on April 9, predicted that COVID-19 could take between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadian lives over the course of the pandemic, if strong public health controls were implemented. The agency also offered worse estimates for scenarios involving weaker epidemic controls, or none at all.

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Nearly four months later, the deaths of about 9,000 people have been linked to the virus in Canada — but the pandemic is far from over, according to the World Health Organization.

How did those initial forecasts influence Canadians’ behaviour — if at all — and how do they hold up today? Here’s what experts have to say.

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How Canada responded

The April 9 estimates showed that weak to no controls during the pandemic could see anywhere from 25 per cent to 80 per cent of the population infected and between 100,000 and 350,000 deaths — a startling difference from the approximately 500 deaths reported at that time.

“I think [the projections] did scare people, at least helped people understand the extent of what we were talking about,” said Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist and mathematical modeler at the University of Toronto.






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Nicholas King, an associate professor at McGill University who researches public health ethics and policy, said his impression is that the first modelling numbers likely served as a wake-up call for Canadians and decision-markers.

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“I think it’s likely that that helped convince policymakers of the necessity to act, and act earlier than a lot of other jurisdictions,” King said.

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Tuite argued that the lockdown and distancing measures that Canadians imposed and followed in the following months “did have a huge effect.” She pointed to early results of an analysis of 10,000 blood donor samples that suggested less than one of per cent had been infected with the virus.

How do the first projections hold up?

Those early projections were based on the case data available in Canada at the time, as well as the knowledge experts had about how the virus behaves, Dr. Theresa Tam, the country’s chief public health officer, said on April 9.

Four months into the pandemic, Tuite said those projections could still be “relevant” today. But she said the long-term estimates for deaths and cases might be “overly optimistic” if there are resurgences of the virus and continued outbreaks across the country.

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King agreed, arguing we’re likely only in the middle of the pandemic right now.

“It may be that this turns into something that looks a lot more like influenza or some other viruses that become endemic and stay with us for a long time — in which case, the projection of 11,000 to 22,000 (deaths) for the pandemic is likely to be an underestimate,” he said.

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“I think it’s really hard to assess those things just because we have no idea what the end date for the pandemic is going to be.”






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It could go the other way, however. How much more the total death count grows ultimately depends on the overall case count and what population gets infected, said Caroline Colijn, an infectious disease modeler and mathematics professor at Simon Fraser University.

“We might expect to see fewer deaths per number of reported cases if our cases are landing predominantly in younger people — which is starting to happen because of more community wide-transmission — as opposed to hospital or long-term care outbreaks where people are more vulnerable.”

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While nearly 200 COVID-19 deaths were linked to long-term care homes by April 9, Tuite says she doesn’t believe the initial forecasts reflected the scale of the spread in seniors’ home.

“I don’t think the extent of it was known,” she said. “I know that most of the models that were developed didn’t incorporate the outbreaks in long-term care homes.”

Will PHAC release updated long-term estimates?

Since early April, the Public Health Agency of Canada has released four sets of short-term projections for COVID-19 case numbers and deaths — which for the most part, have proven to be accurate.

With a second wave of the virus expected this fall, Global News asked PHAC if it would release another set of long-term COVID-19 projections.

“As we learn more about the virus, we update our models accordingly. A future presentation will be announced close to the date,” a statement from the agency said.

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Experts say the pandemic’s course rests largely on peoples’ actions and behaviour. While those things are challenging to predict — and the COVID-19 situation varies by province — Coljin said she does think there’s a case for having “a national-level picture and federal-level communication over what’s going to be necessary.”

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She said officials can make national long-term forecasts “based on what behaviours and level of control we have now.”

“Those forecasts are always kind of thought-experiments for what could happen and I think they can help guide us in making decisions on what to do,” she said.

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Alaska man charged with sending graphic threats to kill Supreme Court justices

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WASHINGTON (AP) — An Alaska man accused of sending graphic threats to injure and kill six Supreme Court justices and some of their family members has been indicted on federal charges, authorities said Thursday.

Panos Anastasiou, 76, is accused of sending more than 465 messages through a public court website, including graphic threats of assassination and torture coupled with racist and homophobic rhetoric.

The indictment does not specify which justices Anastasiou targeted, but Attorney General Merrick Garland said he made the graphic threats as retaliation for decisions he disagreed with.

“Our democracy depends on the ability of public officials to do their jobs without fearing for their lives or the safety of their families,” he said.

Anastasiou has been indicted on 22 counts, including nine counts of making threats against a federal judge and 13 counts of making threats in interstate commerce.

He was released from detention late Thursday by a federal magistrate in Anchorage with a a list of conditions, including that he not directly or indirectly contact any of the six Supreme Court justices he allegedly threatened or any of their family members.

During the hearing that lasted more than hour, Magistrate Kyle Reardon noted some of the messages Anastasiou allegedly sent between March 2023 and mid-July 2024, including calling for the assassination of two of the Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices so the current Democratic president could appoint their successors.

Instead of toning down his rhetoric after receiving a visit from FBI agents last year, Anastasiou increased the frequency of his messages and their vitriolic language, Reardon said.

Gray-haired and shackled at the ankles above his salmon-colored plastic slippers, Anastasiou wore a yellow prison outfit with ACC printed in black on the back, the initials for the Anchorage Correctional Facility, at the hearing. Born in Greece, he moved to Anchorage 67 years ago. Reardon allowed him to contact his elected officials on other matters like global warming, but said the messages must be reviewed by his lawyers.

Defense attorney Jane Imholte noted Anastasiou is a Vietnam veteran who is undergoing treatment for throat cancer and has no financial means other than his Social Security benefits.

She told the judge that Anastaiou, who signed his own name to the emails, worried about his pets while being detained. She said he only wanted to return home to care for his dogs, Freddie, Buddy and Cutie Pie.

He faces a maximum of 10 years in prison for each count of making threats against a federal judge and up to five years for each count of making threats in interstate commerce if convicted.

Threats targeting federal judges overall have more than doubled in recent years amid a surge of similar violent messages directed at public officials around the country, the U.S. Marshals Service previously said.

In 2022, shortly after the leak of a draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, a man was stopped near the home of Justice Brett Kavanaugh with weapons and zip ties.

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Thiessen reported from Anchorage, Alaska.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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An iconic Churchill photo stolen in Canada and found in Italy is ready to return

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ROME (AP) — Canadian and Italian dignitaries on Thursday marked the successful recovery of a photo portrait of Winston Churchill known as “The Roaring Lion,” stolen in Canada and recovered in Italy after a two-year search by police.

At a ceremony at the Canadian Embassy in Rome, Italian carabinieri police handed over the portrait to the Canadian ambassador to Italy, Elissa Goldberg, who praised the cooperation between Italian and Canadian investigators that led to the recovery.

The 1941 portrait of the British leader taken by Ottawa photographer Yousuf Karsh is now ready for the last step of its journey home to the Fairmont Château Laurier, the hotel in Ottawa where it was stolen and will once again be displayed as a notable historic portrait.

Canadian police said the portrait was stolen from the hotel sometime between Christmas 2021 and Jan. 6, 2022, and replaced with a forgery. The swap was only uncovered months later, in August, when a hotel worker noticed the frame was not hung properly and looked different than the others.

Nicola Cassinelli, a lawyer in Genoa, Italy, purchased the portrait in May 2022 at an online Sotheby’s auction for 5,292 British pounds. He says he got a phone call from the auction house that October advising him not to sell or otherwise transfer the portrait due to an investigation into the Ottawa theft.

Cassinelli, who attended Thursday’s ceremony, said he thought he was buying a regular print and quickly agreed to send the iconic Churchill photograph home when he learned its true story.

“I immediately decided to return it to the Chateau Laurier, because I think that if Karsh donated it to the hotel, it means he really wanted it to stay there, for the particular significance this hotel had for him, and for his wife too,” Cassinelli told The Associated Press.

The famous image was taken by Karsh during Churchill’s wartime visit to the Canadian Parliament in December 1941. It helped launch Karsh’s career, who photographed some of the 20th century’s most famed icons, including Nelson Mandela, Albert Einstein and Queen Elizabeth.

Karsh and his wife Estrellita gifted an original signed print to the Fairmont Chateau Laurier in 1998. The couple had lived and operated a studio inside the hotel for nearly two decades.

Geneviève Dumas, general manager of the Fairmont Château Laurier, said on Thursday she felt immensely grateful.

“I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to everybody involved in solving this case, and ensuring the safe return of this priceless piece of history.”

Police arrested a 43-year-old man from Powassan, Ontario, in April and have charged him with stealing and trafficking the portrait. The man, whose name is protected by a publication ban, faces charges that include forgery, theft over $5,000 and trafficking in property obtained by crime exceeding $5,000.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Mexican president blames the US for bloodshed in Sinaloa as cartel violence surges

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CULIACAN, Mexico (AP) — Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador blamed the United States in part on Thursday for the surge in cartel violence terrorizing the northern state of Sinaloa which has left at least 30 people dead in the past week.

Two warring factions of the Sinaloa cartel have clashed in the state capital of Culiacan in what appears to be a fight for power since two of its leaders were arrested in the United States in late July. Teams of gunmen have shot at each other and the security forces.

Meanwhile, dead bodies continued to pop up around the city. On one busy street corner, cars drove by pools of the blood leading to a body in a car mechanic shop, while heavily armed police in black masks loaded up another body stretched out on a side street of the Sinaloan city.

Asked at his morning briefing if the U.S. government was “jointly responsible” for this violence in Sinaloa, the president said, “Yes, of course … for having carried out this operation.”

The recent surge in cartel warfare had been expected after Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of former Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, landed near El Paso, Texas on July 25 in a small plane with Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.

Zambada was the cartel’s elder figure and reclusive leader. After his arrest, he said in a letter circulated by his lawyer that he had been abducted by the younger Guzmán and taken to the U.S. against his will.

On Thursday afternoon, another military operation covered the north of Culiacan with military and circling helicopters.

Traffic was heavy in Culiacan and most schools were open, even though parents were still not sending their children to classes. Businesses continue to close early and few people venture out after dark. While the city has slowly reopened and soldiers patrol the streets, many families continue to hide away, with parents and teachers fearing they’ll be caught in the crossfire.

“Where is the security for our children, for ourselves too, for all citizens? It’s so dangerous here, you don’t want to go outside,” one Culiacan mother told the Associated Press.

The mother, who didn’t want to share her name out of fear of the cartels, said that while some schools have recently reopened, she hasn’t allowed her daughter to go for two weeks. She said she was scared to do so after armed men stopped a taxi they were traveling in on their way home, terrifying her child.

During his morning press briefing, López Obrador had claimed American authorities “carried out that operation” to capture Zambada and that “it was totally illegal, and agents from the Department of Justice were waiting for Mr. Mayo.”

“If we are now facing instability and clashes in Sinaloa, it is because they (the American government) made that decision,” he said.

He added that there “cannot be a cooperative relationship if they take unilateral decisions” like this. Mexican prosecutors have said they were considering bringing treason charges against those involved in the plan to nab Zambada.

He was echoed by President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who said later in the day that “we can never accept that there is no communication or collaboration.”

It’s the latest escalation of tensions in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. Last month, the Mexican president said he was putting relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies “on pause” after ambassadors criticized his controversial plan to overhaul Mexico’s judiciary by requiring all judges to stand for election.

Still, the Zambada capture has fueled criticisms of López Obrador, who has throughout his administration refused to confront cartels in a strategy he refers to as “hugs not bullets.” On previous occasions, he falsely stated that cartels respect Mexican citizens and largely fight amongst themselves.

While the president, who is set to leave office at the end of the month, has promised his plan would reduce cartel violence, such clashes continue to plague Mexico. Cartels employ an increasing array of tactics, including roadside bombs or IEDs, trenches, home-made armored vehicles and bomb-dropping drones.

Last week, López Obrador publicly asked Sinaloa’s warring factions to act “responsibly” and noted that he believed the cartels would listen to him.

But the bloodshed has only continued.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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