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Alliance politics behind BSP’s waning appeal – The Tribune India

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Saba Naqvi

Senior Journalist

There has been a spate of crimes against Dalits across India, including in Uttar Pradesh, where technically there is a party that should be able to mobilise and agitate against this. On July 20, a Dalit woman died of a uterus infection at a village in Etawah district. Media reports that as her family was about to begin the last rites, members of the Thakur community intervened and said a low-caste woman could not be cremated at a place meant for the high castes. The woman’s minor son was about to light the pyre when the family had to stop and after a six-hour standoff, they had to shift to a crematorium meant for Dalits.

In the old days, when there was fire in her belly, Mayawati, one of the figures who transformed the political landscape of North India, would have protested and perhaps even gheraoed the elected representatives and administration. This time round, she would tweet, saying that the incident was shameful and there must be a high-level probe and strict action. She is, incidentally, operating in a state where the SC/ST Commission, that receives complaints of atrocities, has been headless for over seven months.

The politics of assertion and agitation appear to have hollowed out and the BSP now seems content with transactional politics that involves bartering her vote shares for alliances or making overt or covert deals that give her maximum protection in cases she faces over corruption charges. The traditional opinion is that with cases over her head, Mayawati, who has served four separate terms as the UP CM — the last between 2007 and 2012 — is no longer able to fight in any meaningful way. One sign of the apathy is that right through the months of lockdown and reverse migration, her party structures hardly did any relief work while she herself operated from home, summoning news agencies when she wished to make any statement.

Her last few political moves have merely involved traditional electoral arithmetic and the expectation of vote bank transfers. These days, she takes positions that are to the advantage of the BJP, most recently over her six MLAs in Rajasthan joining CM Ashok Gehlot, faced with a split in his party amid backroom manouevres from the BJP that would like to bring down the Congress regime in the state. Mayawati has asked Gehlot to resign and there are now legal questions over the six MLAs moving en masse to another party. Mayawati is no ordinary figure. She has been the metaphor for Dalit power. But the last few years have not been good for her. Her attempt at a grand alliance with the SP failed in the last General Election and since 2014, there has been an erosion of her Dalit vote, with a section going over to the BJP.

There is, however, a particular poignancy in seeing Mayawati so helpless before the UP regime led by a priest belonging to the Thakur community. For, Mayawati in power was known for strong assertion against what is referred to as Thakurvaad. Thakurs claim to make up 7.5 per cent of the electorate in the state but have traditionally punched above their weight, owning land and deploying muscle power. Dalits make up 21 per cent of the population, yet in the year 2020, they can be thrown out of a cremation ground in a state that had the nation’s first SC woman CM. Mayawati’s reign is remembered for her actions against traditional Thakur strongmen and politicians. She jailed many including the infamous Raja Bhaiya of Pratapgarh. At the time when she did so, her actions would win support both from Dalits who were being oppressed and Brahmins who constitute about 10 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population and at that time resented Thakur assertion and the breakdown in law and order.

But today, in the face of the apparent hegemony of the BJP in UP, does Mayawati and the BSP have a hand left to play? After the recent killing of ‘Brahmin don’ Vikas Dubey, allegedly in a fake encounter, there have been murmurs that somehow Thakur criminal figures or politicians do not meet the same fate. There has, therefore, been speculation that Brahmins could be smarting under the Thakur domination visible in the Yogi Adityanath regime. The focus on the Ram Mandir is designed to satiate some Brahmin sentiments at a time when they have no other viable alternatives.

The Congress that lost its ascendancy in the late 1980s was a party led by Brahmins and their natural home before Mandal and Mandir politics changed equations in the Hindi heartland. Strategically, if one were to take a long-term view of politics in UP that has elections in early 2022, one could speculate that the only alliance that could take on the BJP is a possible BSP-Congress compact. Mayawati would bring her Dalit block along with the hope that Brahmins would be comfortable with both her and the Congress. The first choice of the Muslim community has been the SP, but they would head to the strategically stronger alliance. But these are just theories and the reality is that the Congress that claims Priyanka Gandhi will lead their campaign has yet to get off and has no assured caste/community voter bloc. Both players have hands tied behind their back as it’s not just Mayawati alone who faces charges, so does Priyanka’s husband Robert Vadra.

Mayawati’s politics once drew from a valid historical sense of injustice. BSP founder Kanshi Ram was a strategic genius who built up the party along with Mayawati, known for her formidable fighting abilities. The BSP, founded in 1984, was based on the politics of ‘assertion’ and demand for rights. Conversely, the RSS-BJP project works on the principle of ‘assimilation’ as opposed to assertion.

The Kanshi Ram view once was that only Dalits can speak for themselves and non-Dalit intermediaries were only playing a trick to assert the hegemony of caste. The Hindutva project fundamentally does not challenge caste structures, but reinforces them. The reach-out is not through an assertion of rights, but welfare measures and cadre outreach that point out the benefits of voting for those who appear to be winning. As the BJP makes incremental gains, Mayawati could find that unless she engineers a grand disruption, she could remain a waning force. She hollowed out the politics with too many deals and arrangements and could ironically and tragically be ‘assimilated’.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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