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Pot stocks should rebound in 2020: Stifel GMP – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Many licenced producers have not released their full suite of new products to retailers.Many licenced producers have not released their full suite of new products to retailers.
Many licenced producers have not released their full suite of new products to retailers. (GETTY)

Clouds hanging over Canada’s cannabis industry could begin to part in 2020 as pricier products and more stores in sparsely-served Ontario translate to stronger quarterly results, according to analysts at Stifel GMP Research. The optimistic take on the legal pot sector departs from the prevailing gloom after a rash of stumbles in 2019. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Only a handful of companies managed to report a profit last year as illegal dealers proved a tough opponent armed with much cheaper prices. The unlicenced pot scandal at CannTrust (TRST.TO)(CTST) cast widespread suspicion over the industry. Ontario, Canada’s largest province by population, ended the year with just 24 retail stores to serve more than 14 million residents. Meanwhile,&nbsp;legal producers grew enough cannabis to satisfy 81 per cent of total weed demand in Canada when their sales amounted to just 14 per cent of the market, according to one analysis.” data-reactid=”23″>Only a handful of companies managed to report a profit last year as illegal dealers proved a tough opponent armed with much cheaper prices. The unlicenced pot scandal at CannTrust (TRST.TO)(CTST) cast widespread suspicion over the industry. Ontario, Canada’s largest province by population, ended the year with just 24 retail stores to serve more than 14 million residents. Meanwhile, legal producers grew enough cannabis to satisfy 81 per cent of total weed demand in Canada when their sales amounted to just 14 per cent of the market, according to one analysis.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ.TO) ended 2019 more than 37 per cent lower than it started the year. Steve Hawkins, president and CEO of Horizons ETFs, said it’s a “survival of the fittest” world for cannabis in a year-end release announcing the removal of seven companies from the HMMJ portfolio.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”24″>The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ.TO) ended 2019 more than 37 per cent lower than it started the year. Steve Hawkins, president and CEO of Horizons ETFs, said it’s a “survival of the fittest” world for cannabis in a year-end release announcing the removal of seven companies from the HMMJ portfolio. 

Mackie Research analyst Greg McLeish said in a recent report that of the 52 publicly-traded cannabis companies the firm tracks, 13 of them have less than six months of cash left on their balance sheets.

For Stifel GMP analyst Justin Keywood, the cannabis reckoning of 2019 was largely the result of transitory factors within the nascent industry. 

“We believe licenced producers’ quarterly results should improve in 2020 (likely H1), which should bolster investor sentiment,” he wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The new wave of edible, vape, topical and beverage products beginning to trickle into the market underpin his optimism. So-called cannabis 2.0 items officially began to hit the market in mid-December, but&nbsp;the actual rollout has proven slow.” data-reactid=”28″>The new wave of edible, vape, topical and beverage products beginning to trickle into the market underpin his optimism. So-called cannabis 2.0 items officially began to hit the market in mid-December, but the actual rollout has proven slow.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Many licenced producers have not released their full suite of new products to retailers. Canopy Growth (WEED.TO)(CGC), for example, is staggering deliveries to provincial wholesalers, beginning with chocolate and vapes in January followed by its distilled cannabis beverages in February.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”29″>Many licenced producers have not released their full suite of new products to retailers. Canopy Growth (WEED.TO)(CGC), for example, is staggering deliveries to provincial wholesalers, beginning with chocolate and vapes in January followed by its distilled cannabis beverages in February. 

Retail cannabis sales increased at a pace of about 10 per cent month-over-month, according to data up to September. Keywood expects that momentum to continue. He also anticipates cannabis companies will see four to six months of accelerating sales to provincial wholesalers as retailers stock their shelves with new products that sell for significantly more than dried flower, and appeal to a broader range of consumers.

“Cannabis 2.0 effectively opens access to 50 per cent of consumer demand, potentially doubling the addressable market,” he wrote. 

“We estimate that vapes could be priced about 3.5 times higher than dry flower… while edibles could be even more attractive with about nine times higher average pricing than 1.0 products.”

Keywood believes the gross margin boost from edibles and vapes will be about 10 and 25 per cent, respectively.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="ONTARIO RETAIL SLOWLY CATCHING UP” data-reactid=”34″>ONTARIO RETAIL SLOWLY CATCHING UP

Frustration over Ontario’s lack of physical stores compared to other provinces has been a common refrain on quarterly earnings calls as executives attempt to explain weaker-than-expected results. 

“At the risk of oversimplifying, the inability of the Ontario government to license retail stores right off the bat has resulted in half of the expected market in Canada simply not existing,” Mark Zekulin, then-CEO of Canopy Growth, told analysts in November. 

Ontario’s approach to cannabis has suffered major growing pains. The province changed course from plans for a fully-government operated system to a public-private hybrid model. It initially capped the number of stores at 25 due to supply concerns, before abandoning its cap and lottery-based licence system in December.

That’s resulted in 24 stores open today, compared to roughly 300 in Alberta, a province with about one-third the population. The new open allocation system is expected to see 20 new stores opening per month beginning in April. 

“We see the changes as late but necessary to take share from the illegal market,” Keywood wrote. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Fitting with the optimistic view on retail, Stifel GMP chose Fire &amp; Flower Holdings (FAF.TO) as its top Canadian cannabis pick for 2020.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”44″>Fitting with the optimistic view on retail, Stifel GMP chose Fire & Flower Holdings (FAF.TO) as its top Canadian cannabis pick for 2020. 

The retail-focused company operates a network of about 30 cannabis stores, mainly clustered in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and plans to grow to 135 locations in 2021. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Last July, convenience store giant Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO) announced plans to invest nearly $26 million for a 9.9 per cent ownership stake in the pot retailer, with the option of purchasing 50.1 per cent.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”46″>Last July, convenience store giant Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO) announced plans to invest nearly $26 million for a 9.9 per cent ownership stake in the pot retailer, with the option of purchasing 50.1 per cent. 

Fire & Flower CEO Trevor Fencott said the relationship will help fuel the company’s “aggressive growth.” Keywood sees the company as an emerging player in Ontario, where it currently operates two stores.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“We expected a move to a more privatized model in Ontario and see FAF as being a large beneficiary with already&nbsp;13 strategic lease locations in high traffic areas (mainly in Toronto)&nbsp;ready to go,” he wrote.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”48″>“We expected a move to a more privatized model in Ontario and see FAF as being a large beneficiary with already 13 strategic lease locations in high traffic areas (mainly in Toronto) ready to go,” he wrote. 

“Fire & Flower could supply both its own stores and potentially many other retailers, leading to a very strategic position. We see the Ontario government favouring FAF for this functionality over other companies that do not have a similar operating history.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist.” data-reactid=”50″>Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Android.” data-reactid=”51″>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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