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Why the U.S. dollar doesn’t always act like a haven when geopolitical tensions rise – MarketWatch

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One of these things is not like the other: Treasurys, gold and the U.S. dollar.

Good for you if you picked the dollar. Unlike those other two assets, the U.S. currency didn’t seem to attract much buying interest as investors shunned global stocks at the end of last week and went looking for safety following a U.S. military strike that killed a top Iranian military commander and heightened Middle East tensions.

“Increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lift the dollar — at least against non-major currencies — although we tend to see these sorts of geopolitical rows favoring the yen and Swiss franc first and foremost,” wrote Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, in a Monday note.

On Friday, gold jumped and Treasury prices soared, yanking down yields, as global equities sold off in the wake of the strike. Gold

GC00, -0.11%

 continued to gain ground on Monday, though Treasury yields edged higher as U.S. stocks put in a mixed performance, signaling that Middle East jitters were fading. The S&P 500

SPX, -0.28%

 edged up 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, -0.42%

 was little-changed after both indexes booked losses on Friday.

Read: What stock-market investors need to know about intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index

DXY, +0.23%,

a gauge of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was off 0.2% Monday at 96.665 after ending 2019 on a soft note. The index saw little movement overall on Friday as stocks stumbled, with a modest gain by the U.S. currency against the euro

EURUSD, -0.3318%,

which has a nearly 58% weight in the index, offset partly by a sharp gain for the Japanese yen

USDJPY, +0.27%,

which is weighted at around 14%.

The dollar rose 0.1% versus the euro on Friday but tumbled 0.4% versus the yen. The dollar was virtually unchanged versus the franc

USDCHF, +0.0206%

 on Friday after setting a 15-month low versus the Swiss currency on New Year’s Eve, according to FactSet data.

The dollar was up 0.3% on Monday after earlier slipping to a 2 ½-month low below ¥108. The dollar was off 0.5% versus the Swissie, however, fetching 0.968 franc.

The yen and the Swiss franc have long enjoyed reputations as havens during periods of geopolitical stress. Analysts have attributed the strength in part to the large current-account surpluses, measures of excess savings in the economy, carried by both countries. That translates into large holdings of foreign assets by investors in Japan and Switzerland and, the expectation goes, that those investors are quick to repatriate some funds when the going gets rough, lifting their respective currencies.

That doesn’t mean the U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency, doesn’t have appeal of its own.

Its haven-like properties, however, seem to “really come to the fore when there’s a global liquidity crunch, as we saw back in 2008, and traders/investors scramble to secure dollars,” Barrow wrote.

“When, instead, geopolitical tensions arise that do not tighten liquidity conditions, the dollar is more likely to fall against other major havens, such as the yen and Swiss franc, and will probably trade sideways against the euro,” said Barrow, who expects the dollar to lose around 5% to 10% in broad trade-weighted terms in 2020.

A weaker buck appears to be the consensus call heading into 2020, though skeptics contend that factors that have previously frustrated dollar bears continue to underpin the currency. These include a domestic economy that still outshines its international peers as well as higher U.S. yields, despite the Federal Reserve’s series of three rate cuts last year.

Related: Why U.S. dollar bears could be thwarted in 2020

The “initial setting” coming into 2020 “is that U.S. yields and interest rates are high enough to support the dollar,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in a Sunday note. But he worried that the advantage could be offset by a “decaying” U.S. trade position that goes beyond concerns over the U.S.-China relationship.

A decline in world exports and falling U.S. sales abroad means less demand for dollars to finance transactions, he said, arguing that in the big picture, “dollar atmospherics” are unclear. More questions than answers surround President Donald Trump’s pending impeachment trial, deepening conflict with Iraq and other factors on the U.S. dollar.

“Our best guess is for a directionless dollar early on as the various storylines sort themselves out,” Weinberg said. “The drop in world trade seemingly is not over. That points to downside risks for the greenback.”


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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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